Kennedy was moving to the outfield to play, LF to be specific. If you think at the time that a) Kennedy is gonna make the team and b) could get quite a few at-bats because he looks 28 out there and not 35, with a chip on his shoulder, and c) the college hitter of the decade will be showing up this year to play Kennedy's position, then...
Even before you know that Jack Wilson is a lost cause or Chone Figgins is a lost cause you know you need to McLemore a scenario that gets ABs for Kennedy if he can be that Spring Training player all year.
He has been for 2 months now, with no signs of it stopping, so personally I send "My strike zone is bigger than the faces on Mt. Rushmore and I have a pathological need to swing at anything my bat can theoretically make contact with" Peguero and send him back to the minors.
And Kennedy plays LF/3B.
Saunders needs to go down and take a million hacks to figure out how to merge his old pull-power swing into his new I'm-pathetic swing somehow.
Peguero needs to get hit with a ruler every time he swings at a pitch around his throat or that bounces before the plate. I hope everyone can see what I'm talking about with Peguero now: The swing LOOKS great and when he's hot he can Vlad Guerrero his way into hitting pitches off his shoestrings and hitting screaming line-drive HRs...but it's not a consistent skill. He doesn't see the ball and make contact with the ball like Vlad. So he has huge months and mediocre seasons.
I would trade him, to anyone who thinks they can fix that problem.
But for the immediate future, Tacoma is his place, just as Safeco is Ackley's place in about 10 days, just as soon as his Super 2 status runs out.
And with the Figgins situation worsening and Ackley demolishing AAA after a slow start they can claim, "see, just needed the finishing touches" and promote him "on merit" as it were. Good deal all around.
But adding a plus bat to replace about 3-people's worth of minus bats is a great help.
More Kennedy + 400 ABs of Ackley minus Saunders/Peguero/half of Figgins = a serious amount of Win right there, even if Kennedy slides back some toward his norm. 85 or 90 OPS+ from Kennedy would be a FIFTY OPS+ improvement over the 350 plate appearances from Chone/Saunders (who COMBINE for a 40) and Peguero is now below 60 himself and sliding further down with every hapless at-bat.
We're competing now - no more time for experiments with guys who haven't got the skills or the mentality to succeed in 2011.
We did the Oakland thing of spending 2 months finding out what we have. Now it's time to go to war with the players who are here to fight.
~G
SLOPS TO MICHAEL SAUNDERS' LINE DRIVE DOWN THE RF LINE:
Dr. D has nothing against pull hitters. Juan Gonzalez pulled everything.
But this is totally ridiculous. Ted Williams' first rule for a struggling hitter is to take the ball up the middle. I don't even know if Michael Saunders can line a ball up the middle.
He's got to catch the ball so flush on the clubhead, in such a tiny little window, that it's impossible. ::Scotty:: I kinna change the lawz a physics, Keptin! I've got! to have! a contact window!
Saunders, Figgins, and Peguero at the bottom, that's nine full AB's flushed down the gutter.
.
PROPS TO JACK CUST GETTING TWO MORE HITS TODAY:
Don't know why we didn't notice it before, but Cust does the same thing that Kennedy and Saunders do: he finishes with his racket low.
On his single, he had excellent topspin and on two hops the ball juuuuuusssssssst ticked off the leather* of the 2B going into CF.
Now I get the BABIP. (Does anyone know why they stopped shifting him? Because it doesn't work anyway?)
............
His best shots are still on the warning track, and I still don't like a super-slow .270/.370/.425 slugger with 40 runs scored and 50 RBI, full season.
You know how many R and RBI Cust has, in this smoking-hot May? ... 6 R and 7 RBI. ::blarrgghh::
The Oakland A's would cut Jack Cust for his "hot" May.
...........
But! I've changed my mind some about Cust's upside in Safeco. He can OPS+ an empty 110 here, and as such his problem is not a priority.
.
SLOPS TO THE KENNEDY AND ACKLEY SITCH:
The problem has crystallized. Adam Kennedy is one of two (2) good hitters we have right now.
The presumed third good hitter, Dustin Ackley, plays exactly the same position as 2 does. That's probably why he's still down.
You knew that already, you say? No, it wasn't evident until this week that Adam Kennedy will get 500+ AB's for the 2011 Mariners. Adam Kennedy is now apparently a fulltime player --- > for the duration. That's the "crystallization" part.
........
Ackley is still hot. No, scratch that. He is still too good for the PCL. Last ten games again, he's gotten on base 20 times and slugged .667 again. His .603 May SLG does not translate to .400 in the big leagues, gentlemen.
Here, let's run his May results:
- .355 AVG (not freakish; the whole month is skill, not luck)
- 13 doubles + triples (70 prorated)
- 5 HR's (30+ homers prorated)
- 19 walks
- .440 OBP, .603 SLG
There isn't any reason at all to project Ackley to slug less than .500 in the AL, except that he doesn't look that big. And maybe Safeco.
.......
As we all know, Kennedy and Ackley can play together if each takes one of the following positions:
- DH
- 2B
- 3B
- LF
You and I can see the permutations as well as Zduriencik can. At the moment, here are my choices, in order:
- Kennedy 3B, if the M's could shed Figgins (or at least jobshare him to LF/3B)
- Kennedy LF, if the M's didn't sweat the defensive risks, which they probably do
- (Kennedy DH, except it's impossible to do Cust that way)
- Oakland-style 5-to-make-4 at 2B/DH/3B/left field backup
Only the last one is politically feasible, it seems ... and the M's evidently don't want Ackley in a jobshare.
One thing I wouldn't do, is play Ackley in the outfield; it could ruin his groove at 2B. Apparently the M's agree; if Ackley were being considered for the OF, he'd have played there a game or two in Tacoma.
It's confusing, man. It will be *fun* to see how Zduriencik solves it. Should be something dramatic.
.
Cheerio,
Dr D
.
Comments
1. Churchill thinks that they are giving some serious thought to Ackley in LF for 2011 only, or at least he's "hearing" that. http://prospectinsider.com/view/about-ackley%27s-call-up/
2. Check out Figgins' bizarro three-part season:
BA
OBP
SLG
BABIP
First 14 games
.143
.169
.250
.140
Games 15-33
.293
.354
.373
.324
Games 34-48
.109
.136
.125
.135
Not saying it's all luck, just that there was that tantalizing flash of McLemore numbers in the midst of all the despair. And his value, if he is to have any, would be in a 3b-LF McLemore parlay as in 01-02. That's what we thought we were getting, anyway. Getting Figgins' mental buy-in would be the hard part.
3. Back when a ways we tried to show that Kennedy and Figgins were almost the same player offensively, except for one year that Kennedy was horrible and Figgins was great. Copy and paste (values are OPS+):
Year
Figgins
Kennedy
2003
90
98
2004
103
100
2005
101
96
2006
85
86
2007
117
50 (mulligan)
2008
82
82
2009
100
110
2010
79
84
Guess we picked the wrong Angel role player to give the mega-bucks deal to. But we have them both for an average salary of $5 mil!
Keith Law has a mock draft article up on ESPN which he opens with this little nugget:
"Rendon did play some second base in the Conference USA tournament, and while I don't see that as his future position, or know anyone who does, it would fit with the persistent rumor that Dustin Ackley is headed for left field."
Okay, Rendon to the Mariners. Yay! on that one. He name drops Rendon as a second baseman and immediately discredits the idea. Okay, glad you brought it up then. But he uses it as a lead in for "persistent rumors Ackley is heading to left field."
Really? I haven't read a whiff of those rumors. Is he just making stuff up like he did with Rendon becoming a second baseman? Or are there rumblings out there? If there were, I'd imagine they were coming from cranky blogs or stubborn scouts who are hung up on his defense only being average-ish at second.
I figure this is just a non-Mariner reporter trying to make up something interesting to write. But it was so out of, er, left field, that it at least made me curious if I was missing something.
You posted this just as I made a post about rumors of Ackley in left. In it, I mention the source as possibly coming from "cranky bloggers." I don't read Prospect Insider, so I missed Churchill's comment, but I want to be clear that I was not referring to anyone specfic with the cranky blogger comment. I was just being facetious. Sort of. But definitely not specific.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/05/anthony-rendon-plays-s...
But I don't think Rendon-at-2b has any connection to Ackley. The Ackley-to-LF "buzz," I think, is solely a function of needing his bat and Kennedy's bat in the same lineup, and Ackley being the more athletic option to play LF. And it could just be idle internet noodling, as you say.
I don't see them burning any 2012-15 resources in order to improve 2011, and that includes Ackley's development time at 2b. But I could be wrong.
the move we will probably see, when Ackley comes up, (barring a J. Wilson trade or a Figgy dump) is a Peguero demotion. His strike zone is killing him.....as are pitches up in the zone. I think he's got a chance.....but he needs some zone control if he's going to be a .240 hitting, 33 tater bashing monster.
I'm not seeing the Z love for sending Saunders down....although it is truely needed. Z seems to want him around as that 4th OF/CF.
I would prefer we just move Figgins, as Doc has suggested, and swallow some of this salary. But, I don't think we'll see it. Too bad.
So what we will most likely see is a Kennedy to 3B (I'll bet we even see him there one game in the next few....(if we do, then we know the plan) Ackley to 2nd, Figgins utility something and then we get more of Mike Wilson (which I would like).
We've used the rotation and bullpen like we are in a playoff chase...now is the time to use the lineup in the same way.
Right. I think Law just took the few games Rendon played at second and used them as a lead in for the "persistent rumors." And is this case persistent rumors probably means "what I saw when I checked out Prospect Insider before I starting writing my bit on the Mariners."
For what it's worth, Baker called and asked Zduriencik about Ackley inleft. Zduriencik's replied, "We view Ackley as our second baseman going forward.''
Can't always take official statements at face value, but in this case I buy it and agree with your thinking.
If had to make a prediction today, I'm stuck in the middle. I don't have any insider information on whether or not Ackley will move to left field when he comes up, or if he'll get some time in left at Triple-A Tacoma to get acclimated, which would make a lot of sense. But if you see that lineup even once in Tacoma it's not for no reason, it's because that's where Ackley is likely play when he makes the jump.
Ackley's progress at secondEvery time someone asks me about Ackley's progress at second base I say things like "he's fine," or "he still looks like an outfielder to me." And that isn't because I don't think he can "handle" the position, because I do. I just don't think he'd ever be really good there. I do think he'd be a good defensive left fielder, or even centerfielder.
He says he has heard that the team "is actually considering, or at least have considered" Ackley as the new starting left fielder.
Um...okay. I would have considered it too. And then I would have discounted it, since you can't tell a kid "we're keeping you in the minors to work on your defense" for a year and a half, then move him to LF to make room for a 35 year old journeyman to keep him at his 2B position while making basically nothing.
It's not a "hey, Pujols is playing first so you need to play somewhere else" situation. Kennedy is not Pujols, and he's not in next year's plans. He can move. No, he hasn't played LF in the bigs. Neither has Ackley. Ackley is a CF who blew his arm out, moved to 1B, then back to CF for the AFL for us, then to 2B. And now you want him to play LF because we're stupid and don't have a LF worth anything?
He's your #1 hitting prospect. If you have Russ Branyan at 1B and Justin Smoak coming up, you don't move Smoak to DH for a year because Branyan is blocking him. Branyan moves.
Kennedy should move. I know 2B is his position, but he's not playing 2B for us next year, Ackley is. The only way - ONLY way - I put Ackley in the OF for us at this point is if Guti goes down again. Ackley has plenty of experience in CF and Kennedy can cover 2B, and that's an injury cover not a "Peguero, Wilson and Saunders all failed, so get me another warm body to fill the position" sort of move.
LF is the 2nd easiest place to field. What's easier? DH. I know people believe it's "trickier" to play it in Safeco and you need a good fielder there, but every other place on the diamond is MORE tricky.
Kennedy can stand out in LF and shag flies. It's not the world's most complicated job. If he can't hack it, then let Figgins play there - he has 300 games in the OF. Kennedy has 90 at 3B, more than any other position but his favorite of 2B. Heck, CUST can stand out there and let balls bounce off his head. He's done it plenty before.
Ackley CAN play LF, but so can anyone. Smoak could play it, but I'm not gonna ask him to. Smoak is our 1B of the foreseeable future, just as Ackley is our 2B. If Ackley proves on the field he CANNOT stay at 2B, then he can take over in CF for Guti in a few years and play it as well as Saunders has, certainly.
I would be very surprised if we did this to Ackley right now - bounce him off his position just as he's getting comfortable because we don't want to disturb Adam Kennedy's groove.
It could happen, and Ackley would deal with it with his normal aplomb. But you don't tug on Superman's cape, and you don't turn your top hitting prospect into a utility player unnecessarily.
IMO.
~G
The spirit is willing, but the plate coverage is weak ...Lot of things to like, but the swing just can't get to the up-in pitch ... is there *any* question that he needs to be back in AAA?Spot on, and then some, Gordon :- ) :golfclap:
[In ST] Kennedy was moving to the outfield to play, LF to be specific.That would certainly be a clean solution, with a minimum of domino-drop. Maybe that way, they could get Mike Wilson some platoon AB's still?
The games 15-33 'flash' of 290/350/370 is indeed encouraging. Didn't know he put such a solid three weeks together. Any port in a statistical storm, I guess... :- )You start to wonder just what Figgins would buy into, to find an umbrella against the boo's raining down. It's getting miserable out there for him. He looks panic-stricken...........Average $5M :- ) ... heh...Adam Kennedy has always been a hitter. His career RC/27 is 4.5, which is real solid for a second baseman...He's aging, but as we all know, Safeco is amplifying his volume. The rare bird (Ichiro, Ibanez, Edgar) who hits well in Safeco is --- > standing on a ladder when he plays here.Kennedy isn't a star, just an average-solid hitter in Safeco, which this season makes him a man among boys...The real juicy part would come when he was a part-time player... now that's a McLemore-level championship platoon guy...
It's not a "hey, Pujols is playing first so you need to play somewhere else" situation. Kennedy is not Pujols, and he's not in next year's plans. He can move. No, he hasn't played LF in the bigs. Neither has Ackley. Ackley is a CF who blew his arm out, moved to 1B, then back to CF for the AFL for us, then to 2B. And now you want him to play LF because we're stupid and don't have a LF worth anything?He's your #1 hitting prospect. If you have Russ Branyan at 1B and Justin Smoak coming up, you don't move Smoak to DH for a year because Branyan is blocking him. Branyan moves.Kennedy should move. The Mariners seem as clear about this as you are, G...Including your question, 'what does that mean, that they're "considering" ' Ackley in LF?' :- )Couldn't agree more. You're not going to disrupt your franchise commodity over your mid-30's invitee.............One question. No interest in retaining Kennedy for '12?
Were big in 1978, but don't sell well at SSI...Show me the source with the M's... me, I'll take the 0 games played, OF, for Dustin Ackley...That's a real peeve, writers who think that a thing SHOULD be done and then cast it as something that they HEARD from the shot-callers ... when it occurs (if not here) it is a real breach of integrity...SSI does get the occasional e-mail about the M's plans, but how often do you hear the site trying to insinuate inside info out of thin air... no, we'd much rather just let G *predict* the next roster change for us :- )
...the team has invested roughly 1 1/2 years in Ackley as a second baseman, dating back to the winter of 2009-2010. It would seem odd -- at least to me -- for the team to suddenly punt all of that long-term planning for a short-term outfield fix. Doesn't it? I thought so. Just to be sure, I phoned GM Jack Zduriencik a few minutes ago and asked him.
"We view Ackley as our second baseman going forward,'' Zduriencik told me.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2015193710_dustin_ack...
Baker simply went to Zduriencik and asked him what they were going to do. How many words did that save us? :- )