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Jon Paul Morosi - he of "Ichiro Interview on Page A-1 of the P-I" fame - reports that five teams have talked to Kevin Youkilis.  Among them, the Mariners.  

You know what the conditions were regarding SSI's interest in Nick Swisher, right?  That he get exactly 50% of the 7 years bandied about, and that he be the secondary player of the offseason, second to Gordon or Butler or Stanton or whoever.  

Well, applying that logic, where would Youkilis fit into the picture?  As the tertiary, quarternary or dingleberry?  Anyway, the discussion revolves around him in a bridge season, if Smoak's gone, whether he could be one of those Scrubs finds that key a Cinderella season.  Nobody's talking about him as The Big Add.

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The arguments against Youkilis are simple and, at first sight, devastating.  He's age 33 turning 34, has always been brittle, and his glide path down looks convincing:

Cue video of Billy Idol's "White Wedding" with hammers pounding nails into a coffin, to the beat of the music.  Bamp-bamp BAMP BAMP.

Are there any arguments on the other side of this question?  Could Youkilis' surface numbers be deceiving?  Should the Mariners move Justin Smoak in another deal, would Youkilis be a feasible 1- or 2-year bridge man?

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Youkilis' swings outside the zone were actually better in 2012 than they were in his prime, meaning that he wasn't necessarily starting the bat early.  His swings inside the zone were about the same, his Z-contact rate was normal, and his line drives were normal.

His BABIP was wayyyyy down, from .340 (in Fenway) to .268.  Because he wasn't hitting the ball hard?  Well, his HR% per fly ball was 15%, same as always.

The only weird thing:  lots of ground balls.  He used to be an extreme fly ball hitter; the last two years he's been getting on top of the ball, apparently pulling it too much.  This happens when a hitter is out of synch and lunging at the ball.  For example, when the clubhouse is in mutiny and the hitter is throwing away AB's.

Anyway:  the BABIP could be deserved.  OR:  maybe it wasn't.  It wouldn't shock anybody for Youkilis to revert to a .300/.380/.500 line next year, if healthy.  At least, it wouldn't shock Dr. D.

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Youkilis' ability to play backup 3B, along with 1B, is a major asset.  At 1B he's a defensive plus, or has been. You've got a good glove at 1B as well as the extremely valuable ability to cover your roster at 3B.

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Youkilis created 5.2 runs per 27 outs for the White Sox (4.9 overall).  John Jaso last year created more.  Michael Saunders and Kyle Seager created less.  Everybody else created a LOT less.  Justin Smoak created 3.5.

In other words, in last year's catastrophe season, Youkilis still would have been the Mariners' 2nd-best hitter.  Then you've got the possibility of a bounceback.

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He's just a great-looking ballplayer all the way around.  I'd get to hear Cindy shudder at the onset of every at-bat.  Yes, I meant to write it that way.

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Obviously he could just be done.  But the premise here is a 1-year make-good contract.

Where does Dr. D put Youkilis' chances of a bounceback?  If you want to see one whale of a scary comps list, here y'go amig-O.  But Youk's strike zone judgment was pristine in 2012 and it's easy to imagine his 2011-12 problems coming from injury and attitude.  Making him play for his $$$ is a sure cure for the attitude.

Dr. D's worries would be more about health than anything.  And if you've got a 9-to-make-5 scenario going at the corners, then those DL stints don't bite you very hard.

Let's say that the M's landed Alex Gordon and Nick Swisher - sending Justin Smoak to KC or elsewhere in a 3-way.  Take a shot at a Youkilis/Carp battle for 1B?

Billy Beane might try it.

BABVA,

Dr D

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