Jack Cust, "Young Edgar" Version

4-6 inches off the plate.

My guess is that this hasn't changed much.  My guess is that it's part of what drove Bob Geren to insanity.

Ichiro never did cave into Lou Piniella's impassioned pleas for Ichiro to run straight up the line on a close throw at 1B.  And I wish that Cust had just ignored all the howls for him to start swinging at pitches so the umpires wouldn't be annoyed with him.

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=== The 2007 Blindside ===

Fascinatingly, HBT notes that in 2007, ML lefties threw Cust very few changeups -- even though Cust was poor on changeups:

Cust doesn't see many change-ups from left-handed pitchers (only eight percent of pitches), but it's the pitch he had the hardest time making contact with, whiffing on two thirds of the change-ups that he swung at from lefties, even though they were thrown across the middle of the plate. It seems like left-handed pitchers ought to use the change-up more often against Cust.

And of course this is part of the reason that it wasn't going to be possible for Jack Cust to OPS+ that 148 score.

Cust caught ML pitchers by surprise in 2007.  Undoubtedly they tried a little bit of their "toss him curves" cliche, and Cust held up and took most of those, and it didn't work.

..............

Major league pitchers threw Cust 51% fastballs in 2007, and since then it's gone UP ... to about 54%.  It's not really feasible for an ML pitcher to throw a majority of offspeed pitches.

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=== Location, Not Selection ===

But it was a matter of time before they hit the real refinements, such as these:

If you're a right-handed pitcher, and you really must throw a fastball to Jack Cust, keep it low and away where you have some margin for error and good prospects for a strike.

You might do okay if you work the other edges of the zone with pinpoint control, but if you miss there, he will often make you pay either by taking the pitch for a ball or hitting it well. Avoid the center of the strike zone at almost all costs. Throwing the fastball there is worse than throwing it for a ball, on average.

Pitchers settled in with strategies like the above, and reeled Cust's OPS+ back to 125.  Their pitch selection never did change at all, so obviously the location of the pitches did.

It's one reason that fans shouldn't expect Cust to ever blindside the AL with a 150 OPS+ again.

.................

With pitchers now nibbling with their fastballs, and a less-ambitious Cust under orders to take these located fastballs up the middle, he's settled in as a Young Edgar Martinez-type .285/.410/.470 hitter (his actuals in 2010 against RHP's).  Young Edgar, at 28, hit .305/.405/.452 for a 138 OPS+.

Hopefully Cust will revert to pitch-stalking -- to letting well-located FB's go by, so that he can get ahold of the ones that miss.  But if he continues to do Young Edgar, that's not bad.

.

Cheerio,

Dr D


Comments

1

I recall an interview with Cust some time after his banishment and return ...
The key point being that at some point with Oakland, he became ADDICTED to the video tunnel they have available there.  He would literally go check out his swing after EVERY unsuccessful AB.  He was essentially trying to do the Pujols type in-game swing tweaking ... except Cust will never, ever be Pujols.
He noted also that going back to AAA was a huge help because he no longer had that crutch and re-learned how to trust his instincts and stop over-analyzing.
The overall point here is not that Cust will be great (or horrid).  It's that hitting is far, far more complex at the MLB level than most analysts give it credit for.  And well-intentioned (but wildly awful) advice is ROUTINELY given to hitters every day.  It has been my contention for the last several years that Seattle has likely been the worst of all 30 MLB franchises at dispensing hitting advice.
 

2

I can relate a little bit, through the tourney-chess arena...
The adjustments become so constant .... that they can CERTAINLY get to the point where you are over-saturated and suffer 'paralysis by analysis.'
A time-out in AAA, to learn to just play, so to speak, that can absolutely be what the dr. ordered.  So maybe that's what drove his bounceback in 2010.  His entire arc with Oakland does look like a guy who got bogged down in over-analysis, now that you mention.

3

Have always had a sinking feeling that the Mariners get out-scouted and out-coached by EVERY team they come up against.
The 2001 ALCS really underlined it, but the 1997 Orioles series, and many other instances, tend to confirm.
.....................
San-man, what do you think about the idea that the Mariners play so well, in interleague, because this type of "booking" matters less there?

4

Honestly, my general opinion is that too much hype is read into interleague records.
The sample size in any given year is so tiny that wildly strange swings are common.  So, you have to add up totals across a decade to get a meaningful pool for any individual team ... but then again, teams don't play ALL teams.  Seattle gets to pick on San Diego, (I'm thinking KC probably enjoys facing St. Louis regularly a lot less).
And, if you're talking about a team's performance over a DECADE ... well, you can draw just about any conclusion you want.
Overall, I have a hunch the DH gives the AL a VERY minor roster edge -- (but that would apply to all teams -- (though Seattle was probably lucky to NOT have to use their DH against NL teams in 2010)).  My rationale is actually that more of NL *PITCHERS* dislike having to sit instead of hit -- while AL pitchers enjoy TRYING to hit ... which creates a minor improvement in AL pitching over time relative to standard performance.  But, of course that's all speculative and theorhetical.
I mean ... look at Seattle versus division rivals from year to year.  There are years where Seattle has DESTROYED another club ... where on paper, it just didn't make any sense.  Then, have the exact opposite results the following year.  Seattle went 9-9 in 2010 (but were outscored 59-65). 
They got utterly crushed by LAA (4-15; 62-100) and Oakland (6-13; 54-84)
They went 4-6 against both the Twinkies and the Yankees, outscored only 25-29 and 35-45.
Go figure.
 

5
RockiesJeff's picture

Jeff, it was those negative reviews of Cleto from the AFL. Oh well. Metal bats aside, I never understand why most coaches fail to teach young kids the change up. Best fastball will get hit if guys are waiting for it. I hope that he can get it figured out.
 

6

How is it possible for a 96 mph righty to NOT learn to throw a circle change?
I mean the question seriously.  My son was pitching in little league and learned a knuckle change, took 5-10 mph right off his fastball.
I guess maybe they need better location than "somewhere over the plate"?  Only thing I can think of.

7
RockiesJeff's picture

Jeff, because I agree with you, I really have not got a good answer. It makes no sense to me. But the more experience I have now with high schoolers, the more I see it. To me it is like teaching a guy to hit a long tee shot. That is fun. Lots more fun to practice than working on the 3-5 foot putts. It takes both to win.
Lots of HS coaches don't want to throw inside because of the metal bats. It will be interesting to see the changes next season with restricted bats. Often common philosophy is if a guy has a good fastball, the lesser hitter who gets behind on that fastball can around on the change up. So most young kids today have a fastball and learn the curve because they want the movement.
Good for you and the knuckle-curve. It is a great pitch for younger kids because it can/should be thrown like a fastball without harmful rotation on growing arms. I will let my oldest now throw a curve as he reached about 6'2 1/2." With his fast growth, he didn't need to risk injury when the KC was accomplishing the same thing - change of speed and expanding the strike zone. Both have thrown change ups from age 10 but oldest has a harder time with control on that. So a couple of seasons ago we compromised with a split, as Linecum's supposed change up.
As you thankfully know, pitching is not just location and movement but keeping the hitter leaning with the change of speed. The Phillies won the last few years with lots of change up pitchers. Lost art in the age of power but power doesn't always win. Ask Cleto. A great fastball can be nullified if the secondary pitches are weak.
I guess my answer? I don't want to sound negative or like I have some answers (I know far better that I don't) but there is a lot of bad coaching and kids (add the parents to this list) wanting too much too fast.
Should anyone with sense buy a car that could go fast in Drive but had no Reverse? Both are needed to get to where you want to go.
And thanks for all the work you put in this. Tons of pressure this month for extra degree and this is a nice outlet!  Thanks!
 

8
RockiesJeff's picture

Jeff, I would be curious as to your opinions here...or anyone else. I thought I shouldn't say bad coaching but maybe short-sighted. But then...isn't short-sighted coaching bad?

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