Iwakuma and Overexposure? No worries, mate
Now, the DL, that's another story entirely

 

...........

The general consensus is that Iwakuma could be overexposed this season; he only has 16 starts under his belt.  The concern, on general principle, is sound.

In this specific case, it says here that there is NO concern about overexposure.  None whatsoever.  Veteran WBC star Iwakuma, if healthy, has the same chance of a cruddy season as does (say) Doug Fister.

Tell you exactly why we say that:

  • James has pointed out that Tommy John extreme-precision, extreme-change speed pitchers (Marcum, Moyer, Iwakuma, etc.) "will be effective as long as they can raise their elbows above their shoulders"
  • Iwakuma's weapons and arsenal are not subject to "solution" via scouting report
  • Iwakuma has mastered his prep, right down to the issue of footwork and balance game-to-game
  • He is more intelligent than the hitters, not the reverse - As with Jamie Moyer, it is the hitters who will struggle to guess along with him

.............

Geoff Baker has been dueling it out with unnamed blogs over the issue of John Jaso's possible overexposure.  In general terms, SSI believes that Baker has the right side of this one.  

We remember some years back, when Big Blog mocked the idea of spending $20M per year on the free agent MVP on the market "when David Dellucci can give you 95% of the same production at 20% of the cost."  At that time it was considered a given:  just go find those guys who had nice years in 300 AB's, and convert them to full time play ....

Not meaning it disrespectfully, all of the players and coaches at field level would consider that hopelessly naive.  There is a reason that such players fell into part time roles.  Think about it.

............

To be fair:  Billy Beane DOES think he's found a hidden gem in John Jaso.  Maybe he's right.  Baker is merely saying that the conversion process is not as automatic as blogs think that it is.

............

In no way has John Jaso proven that he's going to rack up 130, 140 OPS+ seasons where Jaso has to bare his chest against full-on 50-cal machine gun fire, advance scouting, and all the trimmings.  

If there are 30 major league GM's, probably 25+ would harbor doubts about Jaso's ability to convert his sneak-attack 2012 results into 2013 currency at a 1-for-1 exchange rate.

Myself, I don't much doubt Jaso's ability to hit LHP's decently.  But where I do get nervous, is in his ability to sustain the kind of ISO that he maintained in 2012, and if his doubles and HR's drop off even a little, then so might his BB's.

Baker would be the first to tell you that, yes, Jaso is a whale of a professional hitter, if a rather small one, and is looking at a good 100, 110, maybe even sometimes 120 OPS+ over the next several years.  But a 110 OPS+ at catcher, if you are as questionable defensively as Jaso, doesn't make you a star.

Jaso's a championship-level role player.  Is he an impact starter?  Baker doubts it; Zduriencik is almost sure he's not; I am pretty dubious ... Billy Beane says We'll Just See About That.

I'm rooting for Jaso.  And if he becomes a star, it still won't mean you don't have to be careful about extrapolating 350 PA's to 600 PA's.

.............

Iwakuma is a pitcher, which is a different thang.  For Mr. WBC-san specifically, the concern is absolutely not exposure.  It is injury.  

But yeah.

Comments

1
Lonnie of MC's picture

...about Jaso, but I fail to understand why so many people want to keep up the discussion. Jaso is an Oakland Athletic now. His progress as a professional is moot to a Seattle Mariner fan. Let's move forward!

3

So I'm not your guy for any recollections of his game as it played out. ;-)
But I'm completely satisfied with Iwakuma's 2 guaranteed seasons and one option year. We should have all the years of him that we'd want to have from him. Not for the first time I wish we could get Japanese ballplayers over here earlier in their careers, but I'll take what I can get.
I still view Iwakuma as a #3 starter, but he's a good one. I'd like one of the phenoms to be #2 - but who knows which ones will even remain in the system after July? But a theoretical Felix / Hultzen / Iwakuma / Maurer / Erasmo rotation sounds pretty awesome (if a bit right-handed).
And they all throw differently enough to drive opposing lineups into fits. In the meantime, Saunders and Beavan need to bail water in their turns in the rotation and not try to flood the boat. Not asking for miracles...
~G

4

We may have commented on this before, but more and more Iwakuma brings to mind Luis Tiant, in his BoSox days. Not in style, perhaps, but in the variety of deadly offspeed stuff he throws. There was a day, of course, where that type of pitcher was a 'junk-baller." I beg to differ.
Iwakuma has enough of a fastball to challenge a hitter. I seem to remember the post-Cleveland Tiant having that, too (perhaps not as hot as Iwakuma's. I barely remember Tiant in his Cleveland days). But Tiant threw such such a variety of off-speed stuff (from a variety of angles, unlike Iwakuma) that it was a wonder to watch. He even threw his own variety of the Ephus pitch.
I always wondered if he had a bit of Satchel Paige in him.
Iwakuma's off-speed arsenal, all developed, is impressive. The Shuuto is his hammer, but the slider and the slurve tie guys in knots, too. Guys like that don't have many terrible outings.....Doc is right.
Doc and G and one or two of you guys will remember Tiant, too. I'll run the comparison past you and let you comment.
But El Tiante was a quality starter in the league until he was 38. A workhorse, too (at 37 he chucked 212 innings iin 32 games...one of them out of the pen. He averaged 7 innings a start).
Iwakuma turns 32 in two weeks. We have (possibly) 2 more seasons of him....after this one. He should be productive, barring injury, through the life of the contract. We're completely set at pitcher, cheaply, for years to come.
Rejoice.......sit back and enjoy the Shuuto!
moe

5
tjm's picture

When he came up, he was one of the hardest throwers in the league. Don't know if Iwakuma was like that as a kid or not. Even when he had the good speed, Tiant threw the kitchen sink, too. You name it - knuckleball, eephus, change curve, hesitation - he threw it and from every angle you could imagine. He didn't have a single overwhelming off-speed offering, but he had a lot of them and as his speed declined it still played up, like Iwakuma.

6

It hadn't occurred to me until you mentioned that, Mo' ... Satchel and the kitchen sink...
Bill James once pointed out that it's distinctively Cuban to vary the arm angles, velocities, etc etc...
The three "isolated" major leagues have been Cuba, Japan, and the Negro Leagues and wouldn't you know it, those are precisely the three leagues that have favored the Kitchen Sink approach.
............
Last night, Aaron Boone was talking about Yu Darvish's near-perfecto and he scornfully talked about how Darvish's ridiculous 6 pitches had been reduced to just two, and that's why he was great.  (Ron Washington disagreed, as did I.)
There's something MLB(TM) about the safety and stability of a predictable pitching attack.  Not sure what it is.
............
Your remark about El Tiante makes me wonder whether Iwakuma-san is going to be more durable than I'd been assuming.  Hm.

7

Would that be legal nowadays?  :- ) 
Tiant thoroughly enjoyed the smoke-and-mirrors effect, even when he was a flamethrower.  He didn't buy into the false dichotomy "Coin Of the Realm" idea.  Pedro followed on, using umpteen arm angles despite the 97 MPH fastball.

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