It is Felix

And just to provoke a little reaction, from Tom Weir of USA Today (not quite sure how tongue-in-cheek he's trying to be):

Felix Hernandez's 13 wins shouldn't equal a Cy Young

The AL's Cy Young winner will be announced tomorrow and it probably is going to land in the hands of Felix Hernandez, the proud possessor of a 13-12 record.

And that will drive me a little nuts.

Make no mistake, Hernandez had a heckuva season for a Mariners team that often looked like it was recruited from a Seattle animal shelter. He ranked first in most of the key statistical categories: ERA (2.27), innings pitched (249.2), strikeouts (232), opponents batting average (.212). He tied for the league lead in starts (34) and was third for complete games (6).

But his win-loss record was one game above .500, and 13 victories is a total that most past Cy Young winners would consider an off year.

I detest the Yankees and their checkbook championships, but if I had a Cy Young vote this year it would go to CC Sabathia, who was 21-7 with a 3.18 ERA. The trend has been to judge pitchers by everything except their won-loss record, and I think that takes the game down a naive path. Any pitcher whose team loses should not leave the clubhouse feeling good because he had a "quality start."

The first Cy Young winners I spent any time around were Catfish Hunter and Vida Blue, who won their awards with respective 25 and 24-wins seasons. They took losses hard, and if anyone had ever tried to cheer them up with compliments about a good WHIP stat on the day of a defeat they would have been met with a cold, hard stare.

Hunter was especially adept at winning by whatever score was necessary. He'd work with the run support he had and take a 6-5 victory, or lock it down when a pitcher's duel ensued and hang in for a 2-1 win.

If you're rooting for Hernandez, you can lift some debating material from this fine column by Mark Whicker of the Orange County Register.

But for me, 13 wins by a starter just doesn't compute to a Cy Young award.

It lowers the bar on the most important stat in sports. And while we're at it, let's ban 9-7 teams from the NFL playoffs, not let anyone make the cut at the Masters unless they're under par and deport the next person who promotes a 128-team NCAA tournament.

Comments

1

Comparing Sabathia's win total to Felix' and handing out awards based on it is like giving a company's national sales award based strictly on sales volume with no regard for the territory. In some territories a guy can sleepwalk to ten times the sales of another territory worked with great experience, skill and diligence. Usually companies don't hand out great territories, granted, so the Yankees don't make you their number one starter unless you've shown something special. But Felix is like a super salesman working out of Spokane instead of Chicago. You gotta be twice the salesman to generate half the results.

2

Comparing Sabathia's win total to Felix' and handing out awards based on it is like giving a company's national sales award based strictly on sales volume with no regard for the territory.

You've hit on the perfect analogy there, DaddyO.  :- ) :cpoints:
Spec sez,
It lowers the bar on the most important stat in sports. And while we're at it, let's ban 9-7 teams from the NFL playoffs, not let anyone make the cut at the Masters unless they're under par and deport the next person who promotes a 128-team NCAA tournament.

And also there, one of the offseason's great article finishes....
We are all aware of the "avant-garde" scowling at the idea of considering W's and L's in ANYthing, but personally, I like the idea of including on-field success* in the Cy Young.
If you're just going with "who was the best pitcher," then to be consistent, it is easy enough to just hand the award to the guy with the most Fangraphs value ... in which case it's 1 Lee, 2 Verlander, 3 Felix and Sabathia's a long way below that...
.................
Somebody check me.  *Why* wouldn't Cliff Lee have won it, again?  He was ahead by a long ways in WAR and he was big in the pennant race.  

3

Cliff Lee, 1st half: 8-4, 2.64 ERA

Cliff Lee, 2nd half: 4-5, 3.79 ERA

 
The excuse for Felix's 13 wins was the Mariners.  Playing on the Rangers for half a season gave Cliff no such excuse, and he was worse for the better team. When you get better in the 2nd half you are "performing better under the pressure of a pennant run" or some such.  When you perform worse, your first half gets discounted a bit.
 

The vagaries of humans looking for patterns, I guess.

~G

4

Everything from the bold headline down (in other words, pretty much the whole post) is from the USA Today columnist, not me.  Don't want to take credit or blame.

5

If that is what influenced them, at least that explains it.

6

thought the note was a bit off-key for Spec's savvy and style...

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