Ichiro's HOF Monitor Total

Dr. Naka points out that Ichiro has 200 (!) HOF Monitor points -- after only 9 seasons.  Had no idea he was THAT high so soon. 

About 2003, D-O-V began asserting that Ichiro was one of the top 50 players of all time.  We thought we were being a little aggressive with that, to make a point.  Guess not.

...............

What is your estimate of Ichiro's HOF Monitor points if he had come to America at age 22, Dr. Naka?

Of his final HOF Monitor total?

................

James was once asked, at a convention, "Is Rickey Henderson a Hall of Famer?"  Bill's reply, "If you cut Rickey in half, you'd have two Hall of Famers."

Ichiro may be three: 

  • 300 HOF Monitor points, when 100 = HOF, equals two MLB HOF's
  • NPB HOF

That's not counting the intangibles, in which he played the Jackie Robinson role in opening the gates to Japanese hitters' playing in the majors.  Let's not forget that at the time, Hargove was going "He might make a good 4th outfielder here," and 95% of quoted scouts were agreeing.

We remember, in 2000, one casual NPB fan saying, "If Ichiro cannot play there, nobody can play there..."  We understand now what he meant.  If there is a baseball league that Ichiro cannot compete in, then human beings generally would not be able to compete there.  Not as batters.  There's no such thing as a hitter who can bisect a pitched baseball any better than Ichiro could.

.............

I'm old enough to remember when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar grew disgusted and cynical about the NBA.  It wasn't possible for a 1970's NBA player to invest himself in the competition, because there wasn't any.  It was about lines on the mirror, lines on the face, and laughing at the morons in the stands.

Kareem had several years of lackluster performance, particularly on defense.  Then Magic Johnson showed up and restored Kareem's love for the game.   Along with Bird and Jordan, Magic gave the NBA a heart transplant.  Just in time.

Wakamatsu, Junior & Co. did the same for Mariner baseball in 2009.  Now that Ichiro's passion for competition has an outlet, we'll see whether he doesn't string another four or five UP seasons.

.............

HQ on Ichiro, by the way: 

  1. "Like fine wine"
  2. In both 2008 and 2009, late-season leg issues hampered his SB's
  3. ... which is the only concession to age-36 we can find
  4. Chose to BB less and drive the ball more in 2009 (correct)
  5. BABIP drove extra-high 352 AVG

Ichiro's roto $ values the last five years:

  • $29
  • $30
  • $33
  • $27
  • $28

Although Shandler predicts Ichiro for a bit of a dropoff, to 320/360/400 with 24 SB's and a $22 dollar value.  We'll see whether Dr. N predicts a down season in 2010 :- )

Ichiro seems to have indicated that he wants to play as long as possible, like Rickey, who played well until 40, and then limped along for another three years.  If Ichiro did the same, he could make a run at 5,000 hits in Japan and the U.S.

How many WBC championships would that be? 

Cheers,

Jeff

Comments

1
OBF's picture

That as of right this moment Ichiro is tied with...
 
George Sisler.  IN HOF Monitor points :)  Now of course Ichiro will be raking them in for another half decade at least, but I just thought that was interesting.
Ichiro is truly amazing and we Seattle fans don't know how lucky we have been to watch such a great player.  In fact while we have had no real playoff success to croon about not many franchises (especially not the more recently added ones [ie not 80+ years old]) can boast as many amazing franchise born players.  IOW players that played for our franchise first, and turned out to be historical.  Ichiro, Edgar, RJ, Griff Jr, AROD, Felix, just to name a few  :)
 
GO M's!  Lets add some World Series titles to that list!

2

Assuming Ichiro had ulcer in the years 2007 to 2009 I think he can reproduce the 2009 performance in 2010 though he is 1 year older.
He has also support from Jr. and Wakamatsu.
Wakamatsu is not teaching batters to be patient at plate. Hargrove did it and it had a very bad influence to Ichiro. (take pitches...)
Wakamatsu on the other side teaches "Was that the ball you wanted to drive?"
In other worlds swing at pitches when you get a high BABIP.
So Ichiro can swing at out of zone pitches if he can drive it. And he does it.
No wonder that Ichiro could lead the WPA of all AL batters.

3
misterjonez's picture

that Ichiro made his mark on MLB when he did.  Essentially he stepped in at the close of the "Steroid Era (whatever that means)" and played like a modern day Ty Cobb.  If he'd been white, he'd be the most celebrated player in baseball by a wide margin, but since he's a 'reclusive' or whatever Japanese guy who doesn't line up perfectly with what we preconceive a superstar should look like, he gets bumped down to juuuuuust below the top shelf.
 
The guy has been a pleasure to watch, and when he's elected on the first ballot, I guaranTEE half of the writers will act shocked at his career totals, saying he did it all 'quietly, like a ninja,' or some other stuff.  The truth is, like with Edgar, the whole world should be savoring this guy's historical achievements a lot more than they are.  I, for one, am thrilled he's playing for us, and I support any plan that keeps him playing in Seattle until he hangs up the spikes.

4
misterjonez's picture

very smart ballplayer, the kind of guy who does what is needed, when it's needed.  Which brings me to an interesting question I was kicking around the other day.  What is the value of an Ichiro SB vs. the league average?  I would assume, shooting from the hip, that his SB's would be more valuable than league average by quite a bit as far as WPA or leverage or whatever the current metric is for quantifying such.  Similar to Mike Cameron a few years ago hitting many of his home runs in one run or tied games (don't know if that was a career trend or just a flash).
 
Anyways, I agree with you that Ichiro will only swing at the out-of-zone pitches if there's a good chance he can drive the ball from there, and when he's not limited to swinging at pitches in the zone, he's not only dangerous, but he controls the AB better than most hitters out there.  It's the same thing that made Vlad so dangerous for the Angels.  You'd get him in a pitcher's count, throw the junkball at his ankles, and he'd crush it out of the park.

5

...I hate ROTO dollar values.  They're crucially different from actual win-value in several ways that matter a great deal in the discussion of the game's greats.
But setting that aside for a moment...I think what gives Ichiro his value as an all-time great is his unseen value on the bases and his brilliant defense...(I mean his value beyond his unspectacular OPS+).  Ichiro has three things in his favor:
He plays in just about every game and leads off, so racks up a lot of chances to create value for his team
He goes first to third, second to home, first to home, advances on balls in play, steals at the appropriate time and with a high enough efficiency, and messes with the pitchers enough to have a lot of unseen baserunning value
He's a legitimate 4 win (above replacement) fielder annually (that's about 2 wins above average).
If all of that weren't true, and he still hit .333, he'd be a slightly above average player...instead...he's a slam dunk first ballot hall of famer.

6

spend the 2009-10 offseason tied in HOF accomplishments?  Great karma...
Agree 100%.  Since about 1990, Seattle fans have had far more than our share of legendary players to watch... it's not like the Angels have had a Big Unit, a Junior, etc...

7

... that I brought up roto $ values.  On Ichiro and on Lopez.
This is a different kind of baseball site.  We don't frog-stomp data references that fail to leave us looking like scholars.  We're not trying to demonstrate precision to imaginary lurking employers.
We are just conversing here.  In friendly, positive tones.  Rotisserie fans are part of that conversation.

8

I don't notice Ichiro piling on SB stats when they don't count.  And Dr. Naka references his WPA often enough that I've noticed it's high :- )

9
misterjonez's picture

and strategic discussion.  Essentially, ROTO is a good facsimile for a closed market system, which is what MLB is.  There is inflation, but beyond that there really is very little difference in the amount of salary paid out from year to year.
 
Is it a perfect corollary?  Of course not.  What it does is provide another angle on valuation of players and presents different perspectives on roster construction.  To my mind, it's more valuable to start the discussion with ROTO comps than with $/WAR, which is all the rage these days in our cyber-bubble.  $/WAR is also an imperfect system (used dogmatically), in that it fails to capture the increasing value of each successive win a player provides in a given year. 
 
All FA $/WAR gives you is the rolling average of contract values for all FA's, when in practice, you gain significant leverage by buying the superstars for the big money and leaving the rest of the roster fluid.  You take a little more risk by putting all the eggs in Manny/A-Rod/Johann's basket, but you also allow for significant upside.
 
Long story short, it's all helpful and informative, if presented and discussed fairly.  Heck, even a yearly drafted 5x5 league can teach people about position scarcity and maintaining a reasonable balance of skills on the roster.
 

10
misterjonez's picture

came in a game against Boston at Safeco.  Bases loaded, late-ish in the game, and Ichiro got hosed by the ump early in the count at a critical juncture (2-1 outside called strike to 2-2 or something similar), and Ichiro gave an ice-cold glare to the umpire before returning to the batter's box.
Fouled off a handful of pitches (8-9 pitch AB, I wanna say), and between each pitch looked back and gave the same glare to the ump.  Then whacked one out of the park for a salami.
The guy knows how to get it done when it matters.  And there's no more fierce competitor in MLB.

11
Taro's picture

Can you imagine if Willie Bloomquist had Ichiro's skillset? They'd slobber all over him in Seattle and even nationally.
A lot of times Ichiro can't even get love from some of the hardcore fans in his hometown team.

12

Just looking at HOF monitor again.
There are Ichiro and Pujols who debut at 2001 and have 200+.
There are no batters who debut 2002 or 2003 who have 100+ points.
2004 has Holliday and Howard who have 83 and 82.
I may have overlooked but it seams very rare that player can rake HOF monitor numbers in short span.
 

13

Dr.  D et al,
 
In regards to the ninja in cleats and bisecting a baseball in flight comments, you guys have probably seen this (if not, then you'll enjoy it).
 
What Ichiro probably would be doing if not for baseball.

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