Ichiro #1, Crawford #2 ...

The rumors about Seattle-Detroit with Tampa Bay in the mix, have made Carl Crawford an interesting topic of discussion this week. 

Carl Crawford is one of my fave players.  He, to me, is the way you play that kind of game (the hit-for-the-cycle game).

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Crawford is one of my favorite players, and if he joined the Mariners, it would become a serious question whether the 2010 M's had the #1 most-effective defensive outfield of all time.

Fangraphs has Crawford as a -15 to -20 run left fielder, a figure that I can believe (for once) in view of Crawford's stunning SX's -- 155 to 180 year in, year out.  The man is running in lower gravity.

Ichiro, Gutierrez, and Crawford would not only provide dominating gloves in each position respectively, but also -- this is important -- they would get a chance to do it in a huge outfield.  Many of history's fastest outfields did their thang in parks that just didn't provide as much room to roam.

Granted, Endy Chavez provided a 50-game look at a similar defensive outfield, but at the cost of playing a substitute.  It's not the same thing, playing David Concepcion and Pokey Reese at middle infield, as it is playing David Concepcion and Joe Morgan.  Crawford would give the Mariners three plus hitters wielding those dominating gloves.

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=== M's 2, Angels Coming to Bat ===

It would be very cool to see an opposing pitcher try to stop Ichiro plus another All-Star table-setter to start off each game. 

I honestly wonder how often the double-steal would be on, after both reached?  Probably never, since one would always be on third... come to think of it, that means the 2B-3B 0 out would be a gimme, right?  You'd be insane to throw through to second, risking the run, in a lost cause anyway.

So after Ichiro's leadoff hit, the pitcher is worrying about him and Crawford, a .300 hitter, singles... Ichiro's on 3rd, Crawford on 2nd with nobody out and boom.  The defense is playing to trade two runs for two outs :- )

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=== Most Comps ===

You can think of Carl Crawford as:

Johnny Damon, minus 30 walks, plus 25 stolen bases, plus a Gold Glove.

For no objective reason, I prefer Crawford's variation on Johnny Damon's "cycle" game -- if you're going to have a speed player, I prefer for the speed to be really devastating.   Crawford gets 10-20 triples, 50-60 stolen bases, who knows how many "poached" first-to-thirds.

.....

Kenny Lofton, minus 40 walks, plus 5 homers, without enough arm to play center.    (The great) Kenny Lofton was the .400 OBP guy that Crawford is not, but take away 40 walks from the young Kenny Lofton and you've still got a fearsome player.

Lofton, at age 40, had a season that wasn't tons different from any of his other seasons.  Players like him and Rickey are what we talk about with speed players aging well.  I doubt you're risking a lot, committing 6 years to Carl Crawford...

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Jacoby Ellsbury is -- so far -- Carl Crawford if Crawford didn't have any power.   This highlights the difference between a "leadoff" hitter and a "cycle" hitter.  

Baseball has a good number of .300'ish, 60SB guys.  It's when they add walks, or power, or both, that you've got a star.

....

What would happen if you took the Ellsbury-type offensive player, who had no power to speak of, but he did get some extra walks?  You'd have Chone Figgins, an OBP-SB guy who slaps the ball around.   Granted, Figgins may be about to decline rapidly.  But he's been effective for Anaheim.

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=== Expensive R/X Dept. ===

Bear in mind that Tampa fans all want Crawford traded, rather than Pena, because of the two $10M men over there, Crawford is the guy they expect to bring back a Felix-type haul.

Crawford's mass kewl, but I fear the price.  We'll see.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

2

http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091118&content_id=76...
Their mlb.com page is unusually frank about Crawford being trade bait if they can't sign him to a long-term deal (next-to-last paragraph).  Sez they want late-inning relief and a catcher. I doubt multi-surgery RJ or untested Moore is what they're looking for.  Maybe that's why it could be a 3-way transaction.
I do think JZ is lovin' being the guy who can take on payroll in these deals.
 

3
KingCorran's picture

I've been touting Crawford as a solution all offseason... how sweet would it be to put a guy like that in LF, when you've already got Gold-Glove CF defense (the real kind, not the voters' kind) in CF AND RF?
Interesting thing is, for some reason when I've been imagining the 2010 Mariners with Crawford in place... I keep slotting him in at #3 as the most talented non-Ichiro hitter we've got, and putting Mr. Gutierrez in that 2-hole.  Am I insane?
This is how I keep envisioning it:
RF *Ichiro!, CF Gutierrez, LF *Crawford, DH *Hideki Matsui (that's another story... insert Vlad/whomever if you prefer), 1B *Branyan, 2B Lopez, 3B Tuiasosopo, C Moore, SS Wilson
 
(EDIT - apparently single line returns aren't displayed... boo!)

4
Doc Milo's picture

Wouldn't it be better to separate the SB guys? Say spots #1, #3 and #8? That would create more disruption throughout the line up and you don't have to worry as much about clogging the paths for the next guy.
With Guti hitting 8th, he can steal or hit and run with Wilson. If Guti is going, Wilson can bunt for a hit vs a sac. No need to have 125 sb's all in one spot vs spread out. Drive the other team's batteries coo-coo for cocoa puffs I say.
I'm not so familiar with Crawford's game as Ichiro's, but I would like to see Ichiro in the #3 spot. Last year, starting the season he was hitting line drives instead of beating the ball into the ground. I would like to see that approach in the 3 hole.

5

Saunders would be expendable with Crawford coming back
Add two or three more players from the following:
Late-inning arms: Aardsma, Lowe, Kelley, Fields, Aumont, etc.
A-ball starters: Pineda, Ramirez, Robles, Hensley
Cuts into our depth, but doesn't kill us anywhere.  Too rich?
 
 

6

Matt, I think you've got to throw out those first 900 ABs when he was 20-21 and just getting by on pure athleticism (he was a multi-sport guy in HS who turned down big-time football scholarships).
Doc explains 2008 as injury-related.  If you do that, it's pretty clear the .330 OBP is a floor, and he's more likely to be around .350 or higher.  In all his healthy, post-learning curve years he's been around 180 hits, 20+ doubles, 10+ triples, 10+ HR, 50+ SB and .300 BA. 

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