Q. So. How have "reasonable 1-1 slot college pitchers" done, as far as ML success?
A. Feel free to correct me where I'm wrong, as far as constructing this little list. Likely, I've missed a few pitchers who could have, on draft day, made somebody happy at 1-1.
2009: Stephen Strasburg. No other pitcher taken before #5.
2008: Nobody taken in top 3. Brian Matusz not what I think of as a best-player-in-draft.
2007: David Price. The other high pick spent on a pitcher... the laughingstock Pirates took Danny Moskos #4 overall. Moskos was a reliever the Pirates tried to convert to starter. ::whew::
2006: ::deepbreath:: Luke Hochevar, Andrew Miller, Brandon Morrow, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer and Brad Lincoln all. ... Greg Reynolds was taken #2 overall, but I'm leaving him off the list. I did include Lincoln and Scherzer as feasible 1-1 picks. I left off Clayton Kershaw as a high-schooler.
2005: The first five guys were hitters: Upton, Gordon, Braun, Zimmerman, and the M's blown pick. The first pitcher, Ricky Romero at #6, became an excellent ML pitcher, and he would make the chances look better for Hultzen. But we'll exclude Romero; he wasn't highly regarded enough to be taken 1-1 by very many teams.
2004: The first four pitchers taken were Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Neimann and Homer Bailey.
Verlander of course was a classic 1-1 pick, despite the fact that the Padres foolishly took a HS shortstop at that slot ...
Should Humber or Neimann be considered feasible 1-1 picks in the sense that Hultzen was? Hmmm... I don't like including Neimann, but objectively speaking, you could argue that he was about where Hultzen is. We'll include him.
Humber was a whale of a college pitcher. He was taken right after Verlander. If you're going to argue that Hultzen was a feasible 1-1, I guess you've got to give that to Neimann and Humber, too.
Bailey wasn't a feasible 1-1. Lots of teams took other pitchers ahead of him in that draft.
2003: Delmon Young was the 1-1 pick. After that, there was a loose grouping, and Ricky Weeks was the 1-2.
The next couple picks, Sleeth and Stouffer, were probably teams reaching for a pitcher; the Padres signed Stauffer for a mere $750,000 bonus (!).