Welcome A-Bored ...
if Dr D isn't careful he'll burn himself on the, um, hot stove

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Quite a few new amigos who have pulled up a chair around the pipestove.  They've been throwing good-sized potatoes into the hobo stew.  Not that being interesting is a prereq for joining the conversation!, as the lead author has demonstrated many times.  Still:

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SODIUM RANCH SEZ

Is this wishful thinking?  As re. comps; do I see a little bit of Cliff Lee? 

Disclaimer being that I'm a fan of Smyly's for some reason, and am thrilled at the get.

Can someone with a keener eye for Pitcher Families bring me back down to earth or should i just go ahead and order the jersey?

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Visually I can see what you're getting at.  Smyly's motion does remind you of Lee's, somewhat.  And the demeanor on the mound.  

In the original Bill James Families, I think he had a family for spit-and-polish lefthanders.  Madison Bumgarner is probably the successor to Cliff Lee's throne.  The idea was, it seems like this guy could do EVERYTHING right, and on a good day "I don't see how this bum ever loses."  ... could be remembering it wrong.

Personally think that Smyly's game is more straightforward, almost in a Jarrod Washburn style; Cliff Lee and his ilk murdered souls with any of four or five different weapons.  But one thing they may have had in common was that Lee took off when he started using a cutter ...

Thanks for the interesting thought Sodium :- )

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FUNGINEER SEZ

No Tony Zych in the bullpen?  Interesting that they list Steve Cishek even though he underwent serious surgery to repair a torn hip labrum in October that will require 4-6 months of recovery and is very unlikely to be ready for spring traing.  However, there's no mention of Tony Zych who also had surgery around the same time but for a procedure (shoulder biceps tendon transfer) that should mean recovery by spring training as apparently it doesn't involve the rotator cuff or capsule in the shoulder.

Perhaps for Zych there's a quicker recovery time but fewer guarantees of success or return to previous performance levels, hence the omission?

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Our resident Physician Assistant (G-Money) can correct me if I'm wrong, but my IMPRESSION was that Zych's injury leaves him in no man's land.  In other words, 96 MPH?  We'll believe it when we see it...

Zych figured it out in Tacoma 2015, came up at the end of 2015, and was elite right from the jump.  He ever throws the ball like that again, he's a top setup guy, end of story. Big if, isn't it?  Or not...

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MOJICIAN SEZ

Make the Shout Box great again

Way to hit the ground running, Mojician.  Wherever you come from.

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SLURVE SEZ

[In response to G-Money panning our int'l free agent signs] Carlos Triunfel will pan out any moment now ;- )  Smyly was still worth 2 WAR in his worst pitched season to date. Dipoto sees upside we'll see if he can tap into that.

And PHOENIX GUY SEZ

Smyly's long been one of my guys. His gopheritis should be a little more controllable as a lefty in Safeco and I love the pushing forward of the Gohara chip into this current championship window. It might not work, but this at least makes sense.

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To which I guess we'd better post the Money-man's precedent idea:

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Dipoto is just hacking at the minor-league tree ... Vargas was signed for 1.7 million, and considering our 7-figure international babies almost never work out it's hard to get worked up about that right now. Yarbrough was IMO a lefty pen arm, while some people liked him as a starter.  He has a nice arm, but DiPoto isn't worried about replacing that sort of arm.

It's Gohara and filler for Smyly, unless Vargas turns into David Arias.  Even if he does, it'll be well after DiPoto is gone if none of this works, so what does he care?

I'd rather have more years on that Smyly deal, but Seattle only has a couple of prime years of their MOTO left, if that, and Felix's arm isn't getting any fewer miles on it. I don't mind a win-now mentality.  To start last year Smyly was hammering the zone and getting lots of Ks - and giving up lots of hits, especially power shots.  In the second half the hits and power shots went down, along with the Ks falling a little, as he got easier outs.  We'll see if that continues, and how much protection Safeco gives those fly balls - although it wasn't the home park that was the problem last year.

Looks like that should close most of Seattle's major shopping. How y'all feeling about the rotation and the lineup?

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You regret buying a car not because of what you paid for it, but because it developed a rattle at 8,000 miles and a leaky window at 21,000.  Make sure you're happy with what you buy and you won't mind paying a bit extra.

What I THOUGHT I had heard was that the Mariners didn't have the trade goods to get Smyly.  At least without giving up Lewis and/or O'Neill.  So Dipoto does give up his #3 minor leaguer but he brings back the SP he wanted AND NEEDED.  Put yer best team out there Opening Day; sufficient unto the morrow is the evil thereof.

By the way, Smyly is due to make what, about $7M next year?  In terms of the ownership loosening the belt buckle, the 2-year salary commitment is eerily reminiscent of last year's late Iwakuma pounce.

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JEDI SEZ

“I’ve probably spent more time throughout the course of our offseason trying to acquire Drew Smyly than any other thing that we’ve done,” Dipoto said.

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And if he's gotta use Other People's Players he's okay with that too.  Hey, is it nerdy to just say Way To Get 'R Done.  Nice GM'ing, dude. 

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BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

1

I've heard many here talking about the lack of upside on this Mariners roster relative to 2016 on the position player side.  Here's the upside I see.

1) Team defense

The team, as a whole, was -28 runs by UZR and -39 runs by +/- - that's MINUS 3-4 wins, in case anyone's keeping score.

The pieces that return in 2017:

C) Zunino (+2.6 runs plus top framing chops)
1B) Vogelbach (-0.2 in very limited PT - probably going to be a -5 run defender)
2B) Cano (+3.9 - peg him for average plus or minus a few runs)
3B) Seager (+6.2 - that's about right)
IF) O'Malley (+1.0 at 2B, -0.3 at 3B, +0.5 at SS)
CF) Martin (+5.8)
OF) Heredia (+0.4 total, better in the corners)
OF) Gamel (-2.2, this jibes with my observation as well...a slightly minus fielder in the corners)

TOTAL: +17.7

So...we're shedding about 45 negative defensive runs by fangraphs' primary defensive metric.

And in those runs' place we get:

C) Ruiz (+1.5 as a part timer and still a plus pitch caller/framer)
1B) Valencia (+1.8 at first base and +0.3 in the outfield, plus a bit of negative production at third (he's awful there, but he won't play there much except to spell Seager)
SS) Segura (-3.3 at SS)
OF) Dyson (+20.4 / 150 - just as good in any slot)
OF) Haniger (+28 / 150 by UZR mostly in CENTER field...he's not actually that good, but he's surely a capable defensive CENTER fielder...playing the corners...plug him in for +10-+15)

This isn't a perfect estimate but...the upside potential on defense alone is a swing of +35 runs added instead of -45.  That's EIGHT wins.  On defense.

Baserunning:

In 2016, the Mariners were -12.5 runs (over a win!) to the dark side in bases taken.

They've added Segura (+5.0) over Marte (+1.5), Haniger (0 so far, will improve as he learns the league) over Smith (-2.5 and getting slower), Dyson (+5.4) over Gutierrez (+0.9 last year somehow), Heredia/Gamel (+1/+0.5 each in limited playing time) over Aoki (0.7).

Net potential change (+12.5) would make the Mariners a league average baserunning club and add another win or more to their tally.

And when we talk about offensive upside, Smith/Guti platoon carried a roughly 105 OPS+...Haniger is well capable of exceeding that, Aoki was basically right on average, so Heredia/Gamel/Dyson will probably lose you some ground there...I don't see massive DOWNside relative to last year offensively unless Haniger busts entirely. And, of course, Segura >>>>>>>>> Marte offensively even in an average year and Zunino and Seager both still have untapped upside.

No upside on the position player side of the ball?  I think not.

2

For putting all that together.   I totally agree that there's upside and would add Vogelbach except he's difficult to put a number on. There's no reason to expect one of the OF to suddenly put up 30 HR but that's never what this roster needed anyhow.

3

But my lyin' eyes have deceived me once again--how in the name of Ricky Henderson did Aoki wind up with a ppsitive base running number?  

7
  • Valencia $5.55MM ($5.3MM projection)
  • Martin $4.85MM ($6.3MM)
  • Dyson $2.8MM ($2.5MM)
  • Smyly $6.85MM ($6.9MM)
  • Scribner $907,500
  • Paxton $2.35MM ($2.7MM)
  • Vincent $1.325MM ($1,5MM)

Nothing on Segura from what I saw at the MLBTradeRumors.com article linked below:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/list-players-avoid-arbitration-mlb.html

So it looks like a little less than $1.5mil saved against projections, without addressing the elephant in the lineup (Segura).  Still, gotta like the early returns.

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Per Dutton/TNT, Segura signed for $6.2M with an MLBTR prediction of $7.3M, so the Ms appear to have some kitty money.

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