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RIDDLE ME THIS, Dept.
So Nori Aoki was fixed. Not "fixed" in the NBA Finals sense, but "fixed" in the car-repair shop sense. He was hitting a hard .316 in the second half, .316 with a whopping .362 on base percentage and .429 slugging average. That's a 120 OPS+, which, I never liked the Aoki concept in the first place. But assuming you DO like the Aoki concept in the first place, why do you fix him, let him get back to .316 and then elbow him smoothly off the curb just as a city bus goes by?
You have a cynical interpretation, an optimistic one, and a gutless one.
CYNICAL the Mariners are purely in evaluation mode at this point.
RAINBOWS AND PONIES Jerry DiPoto never liked the "athletic" options bequeathed to him by Zduriencik, so went with Aoki and Seth Smith until he could Gamel and Heredia us.
GUTLESS some mealy-mouthed combination of the above and other factors, none of which we'll commit to
Granted, what is "gutless" for you is "nuanced" for Dr. D. Like we sez, SSI looks "bloggerish" from the clickbait titles all the way through the pseudo-cheeky signoff.
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NIRVANA FINALLY ATTAINED IN GAME 133
According to Sims, Jerry DiPoto was giddy at the fact that he could finally get an "athletic" outfield into Safeco. What, exactly, is an "athlete" in baseball terms? Well, since right fielders do not pole vault or shot put, we're going to assume that DiPoto means "defensive" outfielders. Tony Blengino is still available, isn't he?
Of course, DiPoto's crack defensive Smurf squadron promptly went out and won an 11-8 slugfest. Theory and praxis, as GM Nimzovich would have smiled wryly.
We kid. It is true, true, true that defense is worth a little extra in the Safeco outfield. Bill James rewrote the basketball rules for a theoretical game on a round court with the goal in the middle AND THE TAKEAWAY WAS THAT if you want the players to be a little smaller, just make the field a little bigger.
C.J. Prosise would easily be worth twice what Michael Bennett is worth, if you only wanted to move the Miami Dolphins game to an Aussie Rules Football stadium. The more ground to cover, the more 50-50 balls to get five-fingered by the Smurf battalion.
This isn't rocket science; it's a truism. Outfield defense is worth a little more in an airport. That's any sport, up to and including the local coyotes taking down your household cat.
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Ichiro racked up 51 WAR in 10 years as a Safeco "second center fielder." In a pitcher's park, say the Kingdoom, that might have been 43 WAR. It's not at all unrealistic to project Guillermo Heredia and Ben Gamel for +0.5 WAR apiece here, vs. the Kingdome ... and that's to say nothing of what a game-saving double might do for your young pitcher. It's also to say nothing of the M's .273 DER when they won 116 games with a great defensive outfield.
Supposing the M's were to indulge themselves in a Kansas City-type outfield ... they DO have their MOTO taken care of in the infield. And probably at catcher. Joe Morgan used to speak in terms of having a "balanced ballclub." You can justify a lot of soccer formations if Robinson Cano is playing striker. Rick used to call this "position scarcity," and it wins championships.
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2017
Seth Smith bears little resemblance physically to Paul O'Neill, to Chris Hemsworth or to Katelin Jenner. But he does bear resemblance to a baseball hitter, and going forward you've got a real decision. Two-three CF's in Safeco? Or Seth Smith?
What's worth more, a little defense or a lot of offense? Here's where WAR can really help you out, particularly the next-gen WAR that major league teams use internally. In this case you've got to assume that Jerry DiPoto is in a better position to make a call than we are. At least, we HOPE we can ASSUME that. errrrr...
You can give Nelson Smith a first baseman's glove and DH/1B between him and Bach. But, supposing Gamel is the real deal and Bat571 is on point regarding Heredia ... supposing Gamel and Heredia play very well in September ... at minimum you've got the mother of philosophical debates going, because Seth Smith could justifiably make the cover of Baseball Prospectus.
Granted, Smith is batting .202 the second half, so what have you done for me lately, feeb. Eh?
Enjoy,
Dr D
