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The SWOOOOOOP! Yeah baby! The English League finally begins its cultural migration! It's like the Men In Blazers say: soccer is the sport of the future in America. As it has been for the last 40 years.
Bat571 reminds us of a famous bit of 116-win lore. Aaron Sele, in 1999, was coming off a couple of 200-IP seasons for Texas, with 19-11 and 18-9 won loss records. I don't care how xFIPpy you are; whoever has won 37 games the last two years is somebody you talk about.
Sele's velocity was down a bit, and the imaging on his shoulder was less than pristine. Baltimore had offered Sele a nice contract but Peter Angelos was, at the time, the only owner in baseball more curmudgeonly and micro-involved than, well, you-know-who. Angelos was the kinda guy when Edgar/Cal Jr. came asking for a job, would ask him "And what's your point?" But whattaya expect from trial lawyers, eh Moj.
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NOUN
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a bad-tempered or surly person.
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Baltimore, under Pat Gillick and Davey Johnson, had recently (1997) won 98 games and had soul-crushingly wiped the Unit-Griffey-Edgar-ARod-Buhner M's out of the playoffs. Gillick, having tired of Angelos' meddlings, had moved on to ... Seattle! And when Gillick heard that Angelos was hardballing Sele for concessions, Gillick whipped out his cell phone (?) and brokered a deal in about 36 hours. Baseball's most networked GM had added yet another happy chapter to his grand myth.
Aaron Sele's shoulder was never a guarantee; it went on to collapse in 2002-03. But before it did, Sele followed up his 19-11 and 18-9 seasons in Texas by going 17-10 and 15-5 for Seattle, the latter record coming in 2001. Meanwhile, Peter Angelos turned out to be somewhat less than lawyerly when he had to own a team that lacked Pat Gillick. The Orioles lost 95 to 98 games per season for the next decade. Didn't get Cal Ripken Jr. past the security doors, though.
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Any GM in baseball is well capable of going to ownership and asking, "Hey, I know we're at the cap. But here's an unexpected opportunity. We'd be paying 70 cents on the dollar. I'll leave the file folder on your desk." No GM gets in trouble for doing that. Even in the Chuck Armstrong heyday the Lou Piniellas of the world could come to him and say "How about if we spend $7M more this year and $7M less the next two years?" Three-year plan.
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No doubt that Iwakuma's shoulder is hanging by threads -- and has been since he was in Japan. The saving clause is that he throws with his center of gravity, not his shoulder. You've watched him pitch some little bit, too; you've noticed that he pitches almost with his LEFT shoulder, like a golfer. The balance, smoothness, and grace means that you have to "normalize" the wear and tear on Iwakuma's shoulder to a lesser damage in the shoulder of a less efficient pitcher.
Or so says Dr. D.
Into the bargain, you have a nice light 2014 workload that was graced to him via The Epidemic Mariner Pitcher Trauma, that being a sore finger. (Yes, really.) Dr. D does not have the MRI's in front of him, but guess who did. The Mariners. Who did offer 2/$30M.
If a blogger were less prudent, he might also add that Iwakuma's 2015 August-September finish was riddled by 37:3 CTL ratios, no-hitters, and 46-68 tOPS+ marks. This is not the fade of a pitcher whose arm is blasted. Dan O'Dowd tells us about once a week, this is what you go by. How well was a pitcher throwing at the end of last season? If it was Cliff Lee, move on. So there's got to be an inverse principle in here somewhere.
If Iwakuma is pitching on Opening Day 2016, he's one of the first 25 or so starting pitchers taken. The shoulder isn't that much bigger a deal than (say) Felix' elbow.
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Quick and easy ways to buffer the 2016 wage bill: Leonys Martin at $4M (kidding), Nori Aoki at $5M (not kidding, especially in the M's Store), Seth Smith at $7M. Smith is cool, but I'll take Hisashi Iwakuma's 47-25, 3.17 contributions and find myself another platoon outfielder, thank you very much. Nelson Cruz goes back and shares RF with Guti, and you roll Montero & Co. through DH. Hey, Joaquin Benoit at $8M is an important piece, but a starting pitcher is a starting pitcher. Especially when he's packing a TOR pedigree like Hisashi Iwakuma's. Bet you JeDi could get you back SOME kinda reliever if he really wanted ta.
The QO attached is thunderous. It leaves the M's in sterling position here; if they reduce their previous offer, we presume that WBC-san will return to his homeland where he is appreciated. But! Swoop on Iwakuma? and we eagerly bequeath back upon ye the JeDi title. Conversely, shun Iwakuma even when he's scrabbling at your front drawbridge like Cal Ripken Jr., and we'll know where your heart truly lieth.
And, not incidentally, we are trying to decide on our shopping for 16-game XMas plans.
You know what to do,
Dr D
