Bullpen Discussion Thread
Trust yer instincts, not yer instruments ... errrr ...

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As y'know, we live to serve.  :: shower of crumpled Dixie cups ::

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THEORY, Dept.

My first thought on the Seattle Mariners bullpen is that the Mariners have a lot of draws at the holds deck -- at least 6-7 really good draws.  But these are lottery tickets, not established (minor) stars.  It's a little bit philosophical, how comfortable you are with a Stars & Scrubs team in which the bullpen consists of scrubs.  Back in 1995-1997, I argued that bullpens aren't as big a deal as Seattle fans thought.  The evidence came in against me on that one.

Full disclosure:  I dislike the idea that star-studded bullpens are a must.  For the same reason that I dislike it when they change James Bonds, I dislike it when a ballgame has five pitchers per team.  The coherency of the story and flow of action.

But despite my bias against the idea that you need major playas in the bullpen:

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Era of Seattle Baseball In Which they Seriously Threatened to Advance in the Playoffs Key Relievers Remark
1995-1997 Ayala, Sanders, other tragedies 6 local and national HOF'ers + weak pen = embarassments
Gillick Daimajin, Nellie, Rhodes, etc Scared the spit out of everybody
All other eras Draws at the deck; occasional AC/DC closers 4 decades of cruddiness

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You combine the above EXPERIENCES with the recent trends on the Royals bullpens, the Boston/Yankee bidding war ... it's hard to resist a VISCERAL impression that you need stars in the bullpen.  Not good pitchers you came up with, but --- > setup men that the other dugout buys into.

I'm sure that can be proven wrong, and I hope that a Denizen does levy a convincing argument against.  Just saying it's my visceral reaction.  Since 1995, I've been electroshocked into the idea that when the other team loads the bases in the 7th, you gotta bring in your stud setup man.

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PRAXIS, Dept.

What the Mariners HAVE is this:

(9th) A wonderful young closer ... that the ballclub deems fragile

(8th) An extreme platoon RHP and a very extreme platoon LHP

(6th, 7th) Three quite-talented kids who "sit 96-100 with wipeout sliders," none of whom have ever done diddly SQUAT

(Appendix)  Nick Vincent has been fairly good but is now old and throws 88 MPH

So make of it what you will.  From a SABER perspective it looks pretty decent.  But from the standpoint of my operant conditioning, it dain't.  Even if they were good, they wouldn't be comfortable.  

But, as you are well aware, one more Edwin Diaz pull from the deck and this is a different conversation.  You like Altavilla for that better, or Shae Simmons?  Maybe Tony Zych will be even better than he used ta be and leap to the next level?  It ain't easy to do Edwin Diaz out of your own org, but those three kids have remarkable upside.

Enjoy,

Dr D

Comments

1

I like Altavilla a bunch.  No worries there for me.  He's been the stud hoss no matter where he's been.  Cishek; if healthy, no problem.  Rpzzrpzzrpzski, or however you spell it, is a pure loogy type....no problem in that role. Vincent and Scribner both have decent, but limited pedigree.  One will be healthy/decently good, one not so.  Miranda is good by me.  Well, I think he's just good.  

But even when you add all that up, we're a Diaz sore shoulder from being middling, or worse.  Fien likely finds some sort of form again, but that might just be, "Meh!"  I wouldn't be surprised to see a Heston get a bullpen spot, just because he's somewhat predictable, if his arm is right.  The Whalens, Moores and Povses get to gun it out in Tacoma to see who gets the call when we do the DL dance.  Zac Curtis strikes out everybody in MiLB and walked everybody in his MLB debut.  Tacoma for him.

But maybe that's the strategy:  Lull 'em to sleep with the (potentialy) shakey pen and then whoop 'em with your OF greyhounds who chase down all those line drives!  :)

We've got some noodles to chuck against the wall, but all in all, an Eck might not go too badly with this group.  

I hear you Doc.  I hear you.

2

Wonder how high they'll be able to push his LH-on-LH at bats.  Or, if I'm overestimating his lack of ability?

Let's see, last year's splits were ... .422 OBP vs righties but with no power at all; .321 OBP vs lefties without much power.  Had the 5+ CTL with the platoon advantage, but way more walks than K's (!) vs righties.

102 at-bats vs RH and 113 vs LH.  Ouch.  You bring in Zip vs Rougned Odor, they pinch-hit a righty, you get a 50-50 chance of a medium blonk vs a walk.  ... still not seein' it...

......

If the end of the game is Jarrod Dyson chasing down a screamer in the gap ... well, we won't lack for excitement I guess ... : )

3

They really messed up by not getting in the mix for the Stone Buddha last year. 

4

First year with the Cards:  11.6 K, 2.1 BB, 0.5 HR ... 1+ ERA in 80 (!) innings.  For $2.5M, rather less than Rzep.

What's the holdup on Asian relievers?  Honestly, anybody got anything?

7

I admit it's also harder to tell with relievers, however.

Takashi Saito was pretty much a mediocre swingman in Japan, barely posting a K/9 of 8.

But the moment he landed in the states, at age 36!, he was an elite setup man with a K/9 over 12 his first year.

8

Split last year's pen into two parts.

The first part consisted of productive members of Mariners society: Edwin, Cishek, Montgomery, Scribner, Storen, Altavilla and Vincent.  Each contributed WAR.  The biggest problem here is replacing Montgomery's 50 valuable relief innings (just slot in Rzep to do that).  Diaz will go from 52 to about 70 IP...and hopefully not get winded in the process.   

In any case, this group delivered 270 innings of positive WAR contribution.

The second group consisted of the slackers: Nuno, Benoit, Caminiero, Peralta, Roach, Rollins, Wilhelmsen, Johnson, Parker and Aro--plus the AWOL Charlie Furbush.  Each of these gentlement gave us either no WAR...or negative WAR.  That means we've got an opportunity to fill their 183 innings with something

No guarantee that the unproven will immediately prove.  But as noted previously, Edwin Diaz raves about Altavilla's stuff.  If they sprinkled the starter-to-reliever magic dust on Edwin, what's to say they had nothing left to shower Altavilla?  And to understand his debut, he provided 0.3 WAR--in 18 innings.  Yes, that's no proof--but there's also no current reason to disbelieve.

What happens if you couple 'provenness' with promising performance last year?  That's Evan Scribner--he gave us 0.5 WAR--in just 14 innings.  I call that productivity.  His strikeouts and walks are impeccable.  His problem has been the home run ball.  He's like the bullpen version of Smyly.  

Beyond that, it's a choice of which added rifle you want to pack.  Simmons or Caminiero? (yeah, too soon for Vieira).  Curtis or Miranda?  (Someone fixes Pazos' command and he's ready by mid-season?)  

We're not blessed with a lot of pitching prospects.  But I believe JD is smart enough to fashion something that takes 40 percent of our useless relief innings from last year and turns them into a positive.  

And would it surprise anyone if he's got a dozen names locked inside his iPad to see who suddenly becomes available during spring training?

I think decent health gives us a much better pen.  

9

And I agree with you, that it's all on Dipoto to do a good job of pointing his finger and saying "THAT" one.  If he does so effectively, well, there is indeed a lot of material down there. Two bullpens' worth in theory.

...

Evan Scribner is my kind of pitcher; personally I'd be thrilled to see him as the #5SP compared to Gallardo ... wasn't aware that he pilfered 0.5 WAR in a start-and-a-half's work.  Have been figuring on him and Miranda for the 7-8 slots.

10

Gosewisch signing is strange, no?  Spaghetti, I suppose.  Or insurance.

But Ruiz, Sucre, Brantley, Baron (who hit the ball fairly well in AA), et al, certainly don't leave us with a dearth of C types.  Tuffy is a defender, first, but so is Sucre. 

More Dipoto swapping magic on the horizon?

12

The Mariners have claimed catcher Tuffy Gosewisch off waivers from the Braves, per a club announcement. To clear roster space, Seattle designated righty Jonathan Aro for assignment.

Doc, Rip is a career .222-.291-.298 vL.

Lefties don't slug vs. him, at all.  He'll get 1st shot at the loogy gig.

13

Right you are.  And vs RH it's quite a bit better career OBP than the OBP was last year -- .277/.371/.433, which isn't too far off "average."  So, yeah, if he gives more of that performance than last year's, I'm fine with that.

What say you, about the 50-50 at bats totals the league got against him last year?

14

8 iBB vs. 102 RHB last season, which counted for 1/3 of his walks.  He was still 15/15 K/BB vs. Righties otherwise.  Still, I might prefer last year even with the walks, no homers and a .295 slugging is a decent chance to take 1 batter/inning.

15

Maybe he nibbled way too much vs. RHB's, but it sure looks like he pitched around a bunch of bats that might hurt him to get to the lefty following.  He's not very good vs. RHB's.  In fact he's decently ugly lately. But as a BP guy, he's never got close to averaging an inning per appearance.  Since '12, he's averaged .65, .81, .63, .50, .66 innings per appearance.  He has one role, get one or two lefties.  After June 14th last season, he had 40 appearances and only 14 went 1 inning or more.

He's a LOOGY.  More than that and he's problematic.

16

http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/article/214455450/mariners-add-dillon-ove...

The Mariners acquired 25-year-old lefty Dillon Overton from the A's for Minor League catcher Jason Goldstein, which stands as Dipoto's 12th trade of this winter, and 37th in 16 months since taking over the job from Jack Zduriencik. The club also claimed catcher Tuffy Gosewisch off waivers from the Braves and designated catcher Jesus Sucre for assignment.

17

Mather: Come on, Jerry, let's go--the writers are waiting.

JD: (hand over mouthpiece): Yeah, just a minute--I'm making a deal...

Mather: You're always making a deal.  I don't care.  We're trying to livestream this sucker...

JD: But this is the Tuffy one!

Mather: Yeah.  I know.  They're all tough ones, right?

JD: No--not tough--Tuffy!

Mather: I swear, sometimes I don't know what you're talking about. It's like having Rodney back.

JD: OK, I'll come--but you have to promise you'll let me do the Overton thing right after.

Mather: Really?  OK  Whatever.  But next contract you're paying for your own data plan...

19

Just to concentrate on the left handed spaghetti coming to Spring Training after today, with some comments by others...

Ariel Miranda - #6 starter, who Dipoto said he expects his stuff to play in the bullpen

Marc Rzepczynski - spoken about above, but proven LOOGY.

Zac Curtis - the little guy with long hair that just gets punch outs - Mariner's press guide per Shannon

Dean Kiekhefer - among the best in the minors getting lefties out - Justin Hollander, M's Director of Baseball Operations

James Pazos - fireballer with minor league closing experience

Dillon Overton - 105 K's / 31 W's in 125 innings... young controllable pitcher with MLB upside - Dipoto today 

Paul Fry - short lefty with 178 K's / 55 W's in 135 innings the last 2 years

Pat Venditte - the switch pitcher... he is still here

Jake Zokan - THE SLEEPER!!! Former starter moved to AA bullpen in 2016. Results 37 innings, 10.4 K/9, 0.5 W/9, 0.25 HR/9, 1.45 ERA with almost no platoon advantage. Yes, it was AA, but as Altavilla and Diaz have shown... Just a thought.

20

A guy like Paul Fry is interesting, a *lefty* with almost 300 strikeouts in 235 minor league innings.  The M's fringe is run like roaches.

Wait, they actually had a Roach overrun them...

21

He was 5'7 his junior year of HS and played the OF.  He grew half a foot in the next 6 months to become a still-small, scrawny reed, but his coach saw him throwing lasers from the OF and thought, "What the heck.  Try him on the mound now that he's taller." He was very good, and went on to pitch at a small community college - where he led all of America in K/9.  So the Ms drafted him precisely to be a lefty penner, and he's been killing it ever since.  

I only liked a half-dozen guys out of that 2013 draft for the Mariners, but Fry was one. Looking forward to seeing him get his shot at the bigs.

22

This is by no means an original thought, but Jerry really loves his spaghetti, no? I think we're all used to the idea of the "bullpen pile" going into Spring Training. Every GM seems to do that. Jerry's on another level though, in all areas. Seems like most GMs want to head into camp being able to point at "their guys" like Jack Z did every year with Smoak, Montero, and Ackley. Then they build a pile of speghetti behind them, as a half-hearted safety net. I'm sure the good ones put more effort into it than Z did, but none of them seem particularly excited about it. If their guy fails, they're not at all happy to turn to the pile for a solution.

Jerry, on the other hand, seems to revel in erecting a mountain of spaghetti. He dives in headfirst like Scrooge McDuck and swims around in pure ecstacy. Then he emerges, dripping tomato sauce, and builds more piles!

By my count, we are currently rocking piles of scrubs ~8 deep, as far as guys who might totally see 20 MLB innings/ABs next year, at backup C, bullpen, 2(!) outfield corners, and the #5 rotation spot. It's not so much that these spots are up in the air... backup C, pen, and #5 are enigmatic for most teams... it's that I have literally no idea how to handicap the races. Not because we don't know who Jerry likes, but because there's reason to believe he likes all of them. It's like hearing Pete Carrol gush about Deshon Foxx's ability to highpoint a ball (Seahawks nerds, you feel me). It's like, damn Pete, I keep forgetting that guy even exists. But to hear him talk about it, you'd think Foxx was about to be the next Doug Baldwin. Anyone in the Hawks org, is there because Pete drools over something they do.

Maybe that explains why Jerry has been so quick to dump guys that we think are perfectly good players. It's not enough to have undeniable talent and upside: ya gotta make Jerry excited. He has to be willing to dive into a pile of spaghetti that includes you. If Jerry feels like dipping his toe in first, you're gonna be gone sooner or later.

I'm not saying Jerry is Pete. I do love the gusto with which he makes the littlest moves, though. It's fun to watch him live life.

23
hanjag's picture

Thanks Tacoma Rain.

 

Hadn't given Zokan much thought after me and a blogger buddy talked him based on the name.

Great looking numbers from him.

High K rate but .5 BB/9 is that a misprint or just a jaw dropper?

.25 HR /9 I imagine someone could pull the unsustainable low HR/FB thing, and double down with got in a grove mechanically and SSS.

Does anybody have a current-ish scout report as far as reportoire and velocity? I can usually find something even from the draft year but maybe the injury history and lower draft status doesn't hit the public. Anybody?

I like the Overton addition. #8 on A's prospect list last year.

Those seem like some quality options for the BP and even a few rotation possibles.

24

I wanted them to pen him even on draft day.  As a starter he threw high-80s, has a nice late-break curve that he left in the zone too much, and tosses a straight fastball he could paint with but normally caught too much of the zone on and a change-up that he's been using as a show-me to get a foul. His big problem in college was staying healthy, and that's carried through to the pros.

His stuff has played up a little out of the pen and he got more crackle on the curve, but I don't know that I have any faith that he can be healthy for 162.  He's just a professional pitcher with a good approach, and always has been.  He takes instruction well and does what you want, and the pen move helps him.  Whether that's enough from a guy who might get DLed every other week is a different question.

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