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Eureka!

Gordon was the first to point out the wonders of left-handed middle infielders.  He gives us another great read this morning, Brad's Brawn, and it's a data-rich environment.  I hope he posts on it once a month for the rest of Miller's life.  I don't eat at Wendy's only once in my life, y'know?

He points out Miller's elite speed around the bases -- which is camouflaged by the fact that Miller doesn't steal many bases.

I'll cheerfully admit I hadn't noticed this about Miller, though I should have.

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2 Legit 2 Quit

The main value of a fast baserunner is NOT in his stolen bases; those pretty much cancel out in the Caught Stealings, because every CS wipes out at least two SB's.  

But a fast runner DOES add runs, and wins, by going 1B-to-3B.  By turning a wild pitch, that gets away by 10 feet, into a Wild Pitch.  By forcing bad throws, that don't show up in his own statline.  etc.  Speed, if it's impact speed, does add runs.

Some guys (Michael Bourn) score like 60% of the time after a leadoff walk; others (Corey Hart) score 40%.  I just pulled that number out of my ear, but whatever the actual differences are, I remember they're huge.  

The Fangraphs "baserunning" column can and does add +10 runs, or 1 WAR, per year for players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Trout.  Brad Miller may very well add --- > nearly 1.0 WAR per season to his total, just with his legs.  McClendon says "he's got a chance to be a big-time player" and Gordon concurs.  In the perfect storm, this kid could rack up 7 WAR.

Yes, we know, LrKrBoi29.  We are as aware as you are, that this team could lose 90 games.  Today let's talk the UP scenario while we have the opportunity, shall we?

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SX

Ron Shandler gives each player's "speed score" in his Forecaster.  "Speed Score" is an old Bill James metric that captures:

• Stolen base EFFICIENCY
• Triples ratio
• Runs scored as a % of time on base
• Stolen base frequency

And therefore attempts to measure speed, without a stopwatch.  It captures game-effective speed.  James was (um, is) a genius for using Zen-simple statistics to measure things that we need scouts for.  For instance, was Jimmy Dykes a good third baseman or a bad one?  Well, did he ever play SS or 2B in the major leagues, or did he get moved to 1B?  :: eureka ::  (Dykes played some middle infield, yes, like Kyle Seager did.)

You guys always tell me that Franklin Gutierrez got great jumps and took great routes.  Okay.  Well ... which baserunners get great "secondary leads" (while the pitch is in the air) and which baserunners react well to a "wild pitch" 10 feet away from the catcher?  SX captures that, like Range Factor* captures Guti's glove.

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100 is the league index, which is to say a 100 Speed Index (SX) is average.  Major league players as a population are *not slow.*  James points out all the time that major league players are much quicker than NBA players; Mark Teixeira dives for ground ball doubles much faster than LeBron James ever could.

Miller's score of 167, last year, compares to

• Michael Bourn at 157
• Mike Trout at 153
• Andrew McCutchen at 140

Brad Miller is virtually the fastest baserunner in the game.

;- )   Well, not really.  Shandler projects him for 140 this season; the 167 was based on part of one year.  But you get the idea.  Thus far, Miller has been truly elite in terms of {converting OBP into R}.  Lloyd McClendon put him at #2 not because of his bat, but because of that speed.  So this is a player who figures to score 100 runs in the two hole.

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By the way, Dustin Ackley is also a player with a high SX -- 125 -- which is camouflaged by the lack of stolen bases.  Ain't this team fun to watch?

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It's not easy to line up 8 dangerous lefties against Jared Weaver, and that's because nobody has left-handed middle infielders.  This is a team that, going forward, could have a unique capacity to pressure right hand pitching.

Be Afraid,

Dr D