Seattle Sports Insider

... and Speed for Blood

Posted by

2/7/17

Could be that some Denizens hadn't read that Peregrine falcons can power-dive at 242 MPH. You've heard of a four-minute mile; that's a four-mile minute. I've got that as 1.01 seconds to completely circle the bases on an inside-the-park nab the mole home run. Faster even than Dr. D headed to the Arby's at 9:59 pm.

...

In our latest exciting installment of BJOL, we found out that the last 40 World Serious champs had great closers. Lots and lots of great closers.

This was an "unfashionable" thing to talk about, because it's unfashionable to allow that games between elite teams could be in any way different from games between lesser teams. However, those of you who have watched an October Jon Lester - Cory Kluber game may have come to suspect that there are slightly different factors in play than a May game between Aaron Blair and John Lamb.

James' latest finding on October closers have got us back to wondering, Are there any significant, lasting differences in tippy-top super-dee-dooper elite baseball games, with stars on the mound and in both dugouts?

...

This old 2004 Hardball Times article asked that question and, in 2004 anyway, figured that there WERE things that helped win playoff series. Certainly we already knew that a team's best 5-6 pitchers get dispropotionate innings in the World Series, so a top-heavy roster must be an advantage. The World Series is not an egalatarian event...

The money chart is the last one. It finds that contact (disciplined) hitting, stolen bases, and star pitching gave an advantage vs. a more balanced roster. The big losers in the Hardball Times' findings: slugging percentage and home run totals. It's not like Babe Ruth doesn't help you; that's not what HBT is saying at all. It's just that in a 2-1 duel between Lester and Kluber, you might want to be able to manufacture a run.

Long live the 2015 Royals, gentlemen. They were absolute templates for a stylistic advantage in October.

...

Here is an Edwin Diaz highlight vid. It's good, but even better is this complete ninth inning vs. the pesky rodent Angels. If that one don't make you smile, check your pulse at the neck; reality may be a gigantic hologram for you.

Quick, who will be the M's third-best baserunner in 2017?

Cheers,

Dr D

(answer: Leonys Martin gained +5 runs despite his injuries, and +7 to +8 runs as a Ranger. No other Mariner, including Haniger as a D-Back, was better than about even.)

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Comments

re: Peregrine falcon, that

re: Peregrine falcon, that takes me back to when I was a kid. I didn't know specifically about the 242 mph, but I was fascinated with falconry in general and the Peregrine in particular. 'Course, you know how it is when you're a kid. Fascinations last at most for 6 months before being supplanted by some OTHER fascination.

re: speed. So, it's FUN, it can be PRODUCTIVE, and it is usually an ADVANTAGE in crucial games. I'm down with that. Elite speed is a joy to watch.

When I was a kid, Maury Wills was the guy getting all the attention for his stole base records. But the elite speed on the team belonged to The Three Dog, otherwise known as Dodgers' centerfielder Willie Davis. His nickname came from the number on his back and the fact that he hit so bloomin' many triples. Davis was a sublime joy to watch running the bases. Note to myself based on my recollections: Watching a speed-burner run the bases is a different thing live compared to watching it on TV. Live you can see the entire vista, the outfielders chasing a ball in the gap that's rolling to the fence, multiple baserunners scrambling to take the extra base, and Willie D. absolutely streaking around to third or home. I'm sure I once saw him get an inside-the-park home run on a ball he had no business getting it, though I don't specifically remember any such play. Edited to add, I ran across this article on The Three Dog, you might find it interesting:

http://www.oberjuerge.com/http:/www.oberjuerge.com/willie-three-dog-davi...

If I had a choice between a few elite speed burners mixed in with three plodders and a team with good (but not elite) overall speed and only one plodder, I'd choose the latter every time. But if you're like the M's, it's a given that you have three plodders in the middle of the lineup -- Seager (18 GIDP), Cano (18), Cruz (15)*. So I'll take three speedsters. I DESPISE GIDP's. Every one kills an inning.

* Interestingly, the Mariners had the fourth hightest GIDP total in the AL. Also interestingly, the team that had speedster Mike Trout had the second highest. Speed is great, but you put enough plodders on a team, and they can negate a lot of the speedsters' contributions. Angels' plodders -- Pujols (24), Escobar (21).

Tha dubbul plays ull kill you

Casey Stengel, issuing his favorite warning about two bison hitting next to each other ...

Hadn't thought about Willie Davis in quite a while. Suddenly occurs that there must have been OCCASIONAL MOMENTS in which it was fun to root for the Dodgers instead of the Reds?

From 1970 through 1976 it was

From 1970 through 1976 it was not much fun for Dodgers fans when they played the Reds. They wuz the assymetrical arch-enemy, and LA was on the wrong side of the assymetry. I felt about the Reds like ayatollahs feel about The Great Satan, except I did have a grudging respect because in the starting nine they were clearly the more talented team.

All in all, it did make 1977 and 1978 sweeter, though.

Anybody using VPN successfully?

I am going into this season with decidedly mixed emotions. The Mariners might make the postseason for the first time since Methuselah was born-- and for the first time since Methuselah's father was born I likely won't be able to watch Mariners' broadcasts.

My wife is retiring in about a month and we will be living on Social Security only (I know, I know, you're not supposed to do that, but tell that to my heart which decided self-immolate when I was 47). Fortunately, we will be minimizing our living expenses by moving in with our daughter and son-in-law. Despite the son-in-law being an absolute sports fanatic (way more than me), they don't have or want cable or sattellite. On our limited budget it's unlikely we will be able to carry that ourselves. Thus, I will not be able to watch Mariners games on ROOT Sports, which because of monopolistic contracts means I won't be able to watch Mariners games at all through, um, APPROVED channels.

Now far be it from me to suggest than any of you out there might be accessing said games through UNAPPROVED channels, or that I would do so given the chance, but doggone this retiree can't believe he's going to go through this season without Mariners TV broadcasts. I also can't believe MLB hasn't progressed to the point where they can contractually set up an MLBtv subscription at a somewhat higher price point that would include in-market broadcasts, but that's another story.

So, in my typical long-winded fashion, I am asking if anyone has any exerience with tempting alternatives. If so, please indicate in a comment and perhaps we can find a way to communicate offline.

vpn

Daddy

The web browser Opera has a built-in VPN mode that works flawlessly. I'm out of market for the M's so haven't tried it with MLB TV but have tried it to watch similarly restricted content in LA. The browser is free and excellent in many ways, although it has a problem with Flash. It's certianly worth a try.

Opera

Technically, that's NOT a VPN - it's just an http proxy, which means:

- it won't mask your IP address
- it won't encrypt your data
- it won't tunnel encrypted data

Thanks for the caution,

Thanks for the caution, gnatto.

If it comes to that

We'll be glad to do a little GoFundMe for you DaddyO. Good idea?

All sympathies amigo. There are diseases and there are diseases. Would hate to have yours. Blessings.

I really, truly, definitely

I really, truly, definitely appreciate the idea of a GoFundMe, Doc, but I wouldn't feel comfortable with that, primarily because if we really, really wanted to get cable we probably could. It's just other priorities that make that less than ideal. I should have made that more clear.

We've thought of just having cable during baseball season, maybe we could swing that. The VPN idea is just one alternative for us. That's the way I think, research all the real alternatives, and then make a decision. I'm not certain even if VPN was a real alternative that I would go that way (ethical considerations).

Again, MUCHO grass for the thought. Love all you guys.

Thanks for the suggestion,

Thanks for the suggestion, tjm!

Haniger is faster than that.

He was even in 2016 in limited playing time, but I guarantee he is a plus baserunner a la Michael Saunders when he gets rolling.

That said, Leonys Martin is definitely the third fastest guy on the roster, followed by Haniger and then Heredia if he makes the roster or Gamel if he does.

Interesting charts

Well, darnnation, who would have thought that great pitching trumps hitting in a short series?

Total hits allowed was the most predictive factor by a large margin.

The speed thing is interesting, because what seem to be most important is SB's attempted! Having more net stolen bases or a better stolen base percentage actually had a negative correlation to winning a series.

Having fewer errors committed was a highly predictive factor, as well. Pitching/Speed/Defense.

But there are a couple of errors. From 1995-2003 (the years of the 63 play-off series examined) there were 9 World Series., the AL winning 5 of them. But the AL team in the WS had, by way of the DH, more runs scored for the season than their NL foe in 8 of those 9 seasons. They were 4-4 in WS play during those 8 seasons. Those 9 WS (5 won by the AL) also somewhat skew every offensive and pitching category...because of the DH's season-long impact. The author should have excluded WS play.

And really what the study looks at is the NY Yankees. Or the results are heavily weighted by the Yankees, anyway. The Yank were 66-33, exactly .667, in playoff games over that set of years and were 15-5 in individual series, exactly .750.

So mostly the study says look at the '95-'03 Yankees and copy them.

Maybe that's the new Moneyball! "The Secret to Winning: Get better players, some of them HoF'ers, and pay them a lot!"

Who would have figured!

Well

As Doc always says, Stars and Scrubs baby.

SB's attempted

Ya, I caught that too. Seems to be that the pressure you put on the pitcher is a big deal.

For sure the little article is more in the "interesting" than "compelling" class because of the Yankees. Would agree. Of course there's no reason to throw them out, which you weren't doing anyway.

One thing is, this makes SENSE, that in a 1-run game then control of the basepaths can turn a game now and then.