M's Still In On Zack Cozart
we can raise the floor HOW high, Igor?

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I/O:  M's have a good offer in for Zack Cozart ...

CRUNCH:  ... but aren't going to get held up by the Reds.  It sez here the chances for a deal are not bad a'tall.

Dutton's column was to the point on the quotes:

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Reds general manager Dick Williams made it clear last week that Cozart is available by telling USA Today: "It’s something we’d have to consider. We’ve shown the willingness to trade guys who have been with us if it helps us get better."

Several major-league sources cited the Mariners as the most-likely fit for Cozart, who batted .252 this season with 16 homers and 50 RBIs. He is also viewed as a good defensive player; he rates at plus-34 in runs saved over the last three seasons....

"We don’t need a shortstop," one Mariners official said. "We have Marte, and we think he’s going to be fine in the long term. Now could he benefit from some additional development time in the minors? Yes.

"We did that with (Mike) Zunino, and we think that really helped him. But it’s not the same. Zunino absolutely needed that development time. With Marte, we think it would be beneficial, but it’s not a must."

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Refreshing!

Long gone are the days when Al Campanis sidled up to the Mariners at a party and said, "So tell me about this Calderoni guy."  (At the time, Ivan Calderon was our Tyler O'Neill.)  Nowadays, shtick like that would make the interns laugh out loud.  "Sound logic" is the new "bluffing," as you just now read above.

It's going to be rather tough to discuss life, love and sports if we have an 8-year ;- ) moratorium on the very mention of POTUS' name.  Politics aside, most people would agree that Donald Trump has some money.  As most people would agree that Trump is not exactly obsessed with other people's moods, feelings and sensitivities.

Interesting little report comes up this week that he has never served croissant at his negotiations and never asked "How are you doing."  He just sat down at 8:00 a.m. and said "tell me your demands."  Many huge negotiations done before lunch.   Word is, he literally used to say "list everything you want on this piece of paper," crossing off every other item, instead of saying "Good morning."  This report is not exactly inconsistent with the fact that the Trump Tower revolving door is now spinning about 30 generals a day through itself.

Point is, the kids* these days are way sharper than we were, when we were running the show.  The geezers who run with the 17-year-old dot com wizards are to-the-point also, it seems.

Point-point is, the Mariners actually would go with Marte next year if the Reds are unreasonable, but actually would prefer to rent Cozart for one year, and actually told the Reds exactly that.  I wish I'd been born 30 years later than I was.  :- )

....

My own roto prediction for Zack Cozart in 2017:  about .250/.300/.425 for a 100-110 OPS+.  This is even a little modest for the way he played in late 2015, and in 2016 when the knee was right.  Since Cozart can pick it, pick it real good ... , and can get around the bases, this is roughly a 3-WAR player for those 120 games he stays on the field.

How would that delta against Ketel Marte in 2016?  If y'hadn't noticed, Marte had -0.7 WAR last season.  HAD you noticed?  Prolly the Reds have noticed ... the upgrade from -1 to 2 or 3 is the same as an outfield upgrade from, say, 1-2 to 5.  Well, y'know.  The M's DID suffer long with young Ketel last year, as they did with Zuumball the year before.  Lots of room for all kindsa gainzzz.

Leaving us with:

(1) Cozart 3 WAR (prorated) vs Marte's -0.7

(2) Valencia/'Bach 2 WAR vs last year's platoon was -0.3 in terms of WAR

(3) That's 6 wins added to 86 ... carry the 2 ... Hey, I like what this Fangraphs type math is doing for us

(4) Billy has a wager down, that we're in on Yoenis Cespedes or somebody

(4a)  Well, maybe a $13M player doesn't EXACTLY mean Cespedes, but still

So, here's a fresh thread for other Hot Stove noodlings?

Gracias,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

....when I read the line from the Mariner official saying "we don't NEED a SS."  Of course we don't.  We have Marte AND O'Malley (who was the better of the two last season).  It's not like we don't have SS's sitting around.

But all hints, most not-so-subtle, have been that the M's are indeed buyers wandering the aisles of the SS Costco. We just have not yet found the right deal.  But we dang near pulled off a Cozart swap last season so I'm pretty sure the Cincy front office isn't fooled much by our claims that we're not really in the SS market.  Heck, they probably spit their coffees onto their keyboards when they read that.

It would be refreshing if our guy just said, "Heck yes, we want Cozart!  He's a fine player, but we're not breaking our farm piggy bank to trade for his one season*.  There are other options out there that still allow us to improve and to let Marte season for a season in Tacoma."

Cryptic is boring, this fall particularly. 

*Isn't it two, really....if we QO him after the '17 season?

2
Taro's picture

This is the right approach. Cozart is a solid defense first SS, but hes not worth any kind of premium whatsoever.

It hurts that hes weak vs same handed pitchers and a backspin RH flyball hitter with marginal power in Safeco. There is some collapse potential here wtih the bat. I would bank on .240/.280/.380 or so, but it could potentially get ugly with Safeco AND the league change.

Options limited in FA, so the Ms are forced to deal. No need to cave in though.

3

For a team that was top 25% in pitching and hitting but bottom 25% in fielding last year.  Improve the defense where you can with guys who have at least some other plus (like SLG at SS).  2 acquisitions that fit that bill would please me.

Still hoping to hear that Dairon Blanco is heading to Peoria this spring.  Fielding and supreme speed, possibly faster than has been seen in an M's uni in quite some time.  Maybe some age of Ichiro, maybe faster than he ever was.  2015 was his 2nd consecutive GG in Cuba and he took the SB crown with 29/4CS, 29 BB/42 K, .296/.352/.427/.779.  372 PA, 16 2b, 8 3b, 4 HR.

4
The Other Billy Zoom's picture

So, David Rollins was claimed by the Cubs.

In a column earlier this week, Jonathan Mayonews of MLB.com listed four Rule 5 eligible qualifiers among the top 30 prospects of the M's.

So the 40 man roster now includes 36 names.

Will DJ Peterson, Paul Fry, Ty Smith, and Ty Marlette (I guess two ties make a double knot). be added to that 36.  or some other lower ranked prospect in their system?

So, is that what will happen by 2 pm today?

...or has DePoet got his eye on one or two other possible waived guys?

Timing is everything.

zoom

6

I can finally stop hearing so many Mariner fans chase the magic dragon that is Romero's supposed potential as a big leaguer. :D

7

It only gives you a reprieve, Matt. A breif respite. You know that ten months from now, he will have just hit 30HR's in Japan and someone will want to bring him back! 

8

I sincerely hope he does hit well in Japan and finds his career...I just don't think we can afford his learning curve while trying to compete. :D

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