Seattle Sports Insider

Heating Up a McCutchen Blockbuster

Posted by

10/21/16

Intriguing. Billy is confident that Dipoto (thanks Diderot!) will be on the phone with the Pirates about Mc Clutch, and confident that the Pirates are open to talks. In my own addled mind, this moves a Mc C follow to the front of the stove, as Zoom puts it. Summarizing his suggestions:

1) The Pirates need a SS and possibly a 1B (and obviously a small-market team loves cheap ML-ready talent)

2) Hyper-logical would be a KKKKarns-Marte-'Bach deal (and the Pirates have always liked 'Bach)

3) If that ain't quite enough to win the auction, you could reluctantly swap in Taijuan for KKKKarns

4) Don't give 'em Tyler O'Neill if you can help it

Which tells you all you need to know, as to why I look forward to Billy's camera angle so much. :- )

.....

Remember now that Zoom is proposing deals which should WIN the auction ... comfortably enough that we can speak blindly about it winning despite our not knowing the other offers. I like his sense of what it would take. Karns, Marte and Vogelbach should be enough to get you practically any player in the big leagues.

Casual fans -- those on every site but SSI, obviously -- tend to speak in terms of Paxton, Diaz, Seager and O'Neill when they're talking about a West Coast team making a deal with one East of the Mississippi.

Casual fans tend to forget all about the M's deals involving Cliff Lee, Erikkk Bedard, Randy Johnson, etc. For example, BEFORE the Cliff Lee deal we were assured the M's had NO configuration of talent that would even get the Phillies to pick up the phone. The M's won the auction with what package? Tyson Gillies, Philippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez. Gillies was in A+ baseball (!), Aumont was in A+ with a few lousy innings in AA, and J.C. Ramirez was the throwin.

I've got no idea why fans -- even the lead writers on other Seattle sites -- resist believing this. EVERY organization, all 30, has players in the LOW minors that are very intriguing to other clubs.

Also the Bedard trade, which outraged other M's sites so much over Bavasi's gullibility, would be the equivalent today of merely Tyler O'Neill, Nate Karns (MAXIMUM) and three tossins.

.....

So when we talk about three ML-ready blue chippers, two of which have played well in the majors (!), we are talking about a yuge, yuge haul for the Pirates. On the other hand, there IS a tendency for General Managers to point at your best player and say "we can't make a deal without THAT guy; he's the key to the deal." It's not impossible that the Pirates would try to draw a line in the sand over Paxton ... or more likely, Taijuan. Hence Billy's comment. But Dr. D will gingerly predict that if you led off with Taijuan Walker, the rest of the package could be pretty complementary.

.....

Here's the punch line. We're all talking about Andrew McCutchen as if he were coming off a 7-WAR season. He ain't. There's got to be SOME discount for last year's 103 OPS+ and the fear factor. This deal looks quite feasible from this cuppa coffee.

Throw somemore coal in the stove,

Dr D

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Comments

I ain't

I aint trading Karns-Marte-Bach for Cutch.

We give up too much.

But I'm sure it would get the job done from the Pirate end.

McCutchen as a 21 year old in AAA hit .770 with 9 HR's in 590 PA's. .283-.372-.398 At 22 it was .303-.361-.493.

Vogs just his .923 as a 23 year old. .292-.417-.505. 23 HR's. OK, IL vs PCL and 1-2 years difference. I get it.

But there is a chance that McCutchen doesn't BABIP .331 (his career number) in '17 and is closer to .297 (his '16 number).

I'm not giving up 3 MLB'er to get him.

Trout, sure. Not two years of McCutchen.

Since '06, these are the 23 year old LH bats who had an OBP of .400-ish and slugged .500-ish in the PCL. They had to walk about 100 pts and have a near 1/1 Eye. In parenthesis is how they did as a 24 year old in the bigs.

'06

Chris Carter (Didn't get there. Career .689 in 206 MLB PA's)

Shin-soo Choo (A cup of coffee at 24. Really dang good at 25-26. Career bigs .280-.381-.451)

'08

Seth Smith did it as a 25 year old.

'10

Buster Posey did it. Well, not a LH bat.

'11

Brandon Belt (.275-.360-.421. Career .818 bat in the bigs)

'12

Adam Eaton (.252-.314-.360. Career .771 in the bigs. Not a great comparison because his AAA slugging was generated by 46 doubles and only 7 HR's)

Anthony Rizzo (Was 22. Walked less, slugged more)

'14

Joc Pederson (was 22. Eye was .6. Speedy CF. .763 in the bigs the next year with 26 HR's)

And that's it. Not many guys in the last 10 seasons have done what Vogs did in AAA last year. The best comparisons are Belt, Choo and Carter. Two of those guys are pretty dang good.

The Belt comparison is one I quite like.

Would like to get Cutch if The Price is Right. But even Bob Barker might flinch at Vogs-Karns-Marte.

So you're kinda skittish on McCutchen, right

Which is eminently reasonable.

The thing is, if we assume a 50-50 chance of a "meh" season from Andrew McCutchen, we use a Return On Investment concept averaging McCutchen at 3-4 WAR, we may as well move on. The team getting McCutchen (if he's moved at all) is going to have to be rolling the dice and *assuming* a bounceback, wouldn't you think?

Your judgment of "no sale no how" on Karns, SS, 1B is cool and forms a crunchy balance with Zoom's angle. +1

Not too skittish

McCutchen is a fine player.

But two years of McCutchen for a lifetime of Vogs, 4 years of Karns and 4 of Marte is a pretty costly guy. Basically your trading 16 years for 2. All three of the guys we give up may well be quality MLB'ers.

Your comps to 'Bach are provocative

And prove it's completely realistic to be looking at a Shin-Soo Choo or even Anthony Rizzo career for Vogelbach. Many All-Stars have done less at older ages. Appreciate the research.

Mike Montgomery, in the middle of a pennant race, was a pretty steep price (in GM, not fan, terms) to pay for an unproven minor league 1B/DH. But 'Bach's offense could be just that good.

1B

Worth noting that 1B is the one market segment that is relatively flush this off season. Guys like Lind may be on the market deep into the off season.

It would be a bold move. If he bounces back, the offense would be lethal and the OF defense solid for the next two years. If he doesn't bounce back, Jerry would have some tough decisions of the rebuild kind sooner than he wants.

who is Billy??

Not sure who you are referring to, Doc...just curious.

Screen names

the guy who just commented, 'the other Billy Zoom.' There was a Billy here about six eight years back who was a scout incognito; they share a lot of similarities. In any case I like Billy Zoom's ideas. As I do yours :- )

I missed the name...

Obviously I wasn't disrespecting the commenter...I just didn't recognize the name...was confused. :D

As for their needs

It seems Pittsburg wants SP desperately and particularly prefer groundballers. 88 starters this year had 120+IP with GB% over 40% and Felix, Paxton, Walker and Kuma (descending order) were all there. Karns also fits that mold without the innings. Miranda did not this year but who knows what he'll become when he gels?

I don't think Marte currently fits their "run prevention" preference, there's good defensive SS free agents that shouldn't cost much anyway and the only way for us to replace him with a clear improvement is via another trade. Or maybe international signing, hard to keep up on those available. If McCutchen is acquired are there enough bullets you want to use left to improve SS?

I'm pretty confident Vogue's here to stay for awhile at least. I get the idea that his spot could be filled, much like Jose Lopez' spot was filled by Chone Figgins. Or Adam Jones to Jeremy Reed? 'Bach, to me, is an answer to where you find a MOTO bat if one of the current ones decline. He hits from the wrong side to replace Cruz but in a couple years he could be making it easier to move Cano down in the lineup. Dipoto wants more hitters that draw walks without striking out much, not less.

2 years of McCutchen at his mid bounceback I think is worth paying for. Karns, 'Bach and Marte seem too much to me. Last year with an additional remaining and no down year that might not have been enough. I don't think paying for 14 WAR is even equitable.

How many deals have ever been done with 3 MLB ready young controllable players for 1 player?