Seattle Sports Insider

Dipoto head-faking SSI into the cheap seats again?

again the M's brain trust holding our Stars & Scrubs hopes hostage

Posted by

11/16/16

It wasn't worth a Konspiracy Korner, but we read some guy claiming that Russian despots have alternated being "Balds" and "Ted Dansons" eight times in a row. Not eight men in a row; eight pairs of men in a row.

Among them, Lenin into Stalin, Kruschev into Brezhnev, Andropov into Chernenko, Gorbachev into Yeltsin into Putin ... Dr. D can counter, though, that all Russian chess Grandmasters have Mufasa-level manes of hair. Boris Spassky, a dead ringer for the young Josef, is merely the guy whose picture you might recognize. They all look like that...

WAITjustaMINNIT. Jerry Dipoto has a GORGEOUS head of hair. ... and don't think the parallels between Mariners executives and Russian despots end at hair alternation.

Last winter you remember how chipped our teeth were after Dipoto coughed up Carson Smith, and who was that football-playing prospect we all had down as Ryan Braun Bare Minimum, but ... just when we were ready to stage a bolshevik revolution a single Adam Lind maneuver made it all look like a Power to the People movement again.

This winter, (1) Dipoto de-lighted the den-izens with Valencia and Ruiz out of the gate, (2) he seems to be indicating "what more can be done with a roster of such beauty and magnitude," and (3) seems poised to finish by declaring an 86-win team in need of nothing more than a bit of mascara and eye shadow.

The possibility is obvious once you see it. Right now we're in a sneaky-quiet Marxist Manifesto leading up to an ostentatious Adam Lind-style crescendo that leaves 20 million dead... er, watching the Mariners rather than the Yankees in October. Which will end with Lincoln (great hair) and Armstrong (very weak hair) telling their proteges to divide up the American League on a napkin the way Churchill and Stalin did with Europe.

Thusly:

......

According to MLBTR, the most obvious (and, in Dipoto's hectic world, simplistic) wish at this would be one Zack Cozart:

The Mariners nearly acquired Reds shortstop Zack Cozart prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, and their interest in the veteran infielder has persisted into the offseason, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Dutton has previously reported that back on Aug. 1, the Mariners and Reds were in talks that would’ve sent Cozart and a minor leaguer to Seattle in exchange for minor league left-hander Luiz Gohara and another prospect, but the deal never materialized, as Dutton suggested that Cincinnati simply ran out of time to complete the deal after dedicating so much effort to completing its Jay Bruce trade with the Mets.

But click on the link and here's an M's exec again shrugging his shoulders benignly and saying that any further uprgrades would be a "luxury" rather than a necessity. Bah humbug.

Q. Is Napoli or Pearce still possible, along with Valencia?

A. Is Hillary still possible, along with Trump?

Sorry. Here Dr. Detecto is, inflicting upon you imagery of national elections without even a respectful KK warning aforehand. ... but of course you're welcome to virtual-riot on me if you feel the need to prove that love always wins over hate.

Stop Dr. D before he current-events again! :: jeff goldblum :: if you stay, i'll hurt you

Dipoto has declared the entire right-handed sector of the roster population to be overloading his social safety net. Much less to add anything to positions that are already solid. So, no, probably not too many more right-handed first basemen.

Q. Is Seth Smith going to get 600 AB's, since Dipoto said the 1B platoon is their only platoon?

A. Um, he just means the outfield will be a fluid rotation of five or six guys. Jon Jay, Ben Gamel, Guillermo Heredia, and the starters. So Jerry "Great Hair" Dipoto has also gunned down even the most ephemeral dreams about Blue Jays outfield superstars ...

... Whoop! Not if you mean Michael Saunders! Hey! C'mon! Why NOT Us!

Q. Maybe we could set our sights on triple closers as our Hot-Stove swat at Stars & Scrubs?

A. I, for one, refuse to give up hope. They're talking about Mark Melancon and his ilk. If you're "keeping your powder dry" at every position except reliever, what's wrong wit' dat?

Q. What else is [actually] going on?

A. Dr. D has declared the thread below a Sanctuary City for all migrant theories of any stripe. Do him a solid and set 'im straight as to what Dipoto's really thinking.

Enjoy,

jemanji

Blog:

Hot Stove

Tags:

Zack Cozart

Comments

Jon Jay

I like Jay a lot. + corner OF defense and he gets on base. Has no split issues, either. Hits lefties almost as well as he hits RHP. But unless Smith is a goner, then he isn't coming. And he's another LHB. Basically we have 5 RHB's on the squad right now: Two are catchers and one is O'Malley (when he faces LHP). So that gives us Cruz, Valencia and a C in the lineup vs. LHP. Maybe Heredia, I suppose....but I'm assuming he stars in Tacoma. OK...We have to sign a SS and he's likely to be a RHB, but unless it's Desmond he won't bring much lumber (Cozart is a career .659 guy vR...which is better than Martin, btw).

Dump Smith and add Jay is fine by me (3 CF-types roaming the OF would be just ducky). But a RHB who can play a COF position and an IF position (not 1B) would be a great get.

Discount all of this if the M's office has decided that O'Neill gets the taxi ride to Safeco very early.

Not Jay

Not that he's horrible. I like Saunders better for that spot and he's not in my top 5 either.

If we're looking at a cheaper OF, where would any budget increase go? By all accounts it's not the rotation (unless someone's traded), I can see a lefty in the bullpen eating a chunk but everything else is already taken care of without much cost. Unless Tulo is on the move again, which seems unlikely.

Scramble

I think he's just keeping his options open. DiPoto strikes me as a guy that really likes operating when things are fluid. Zduriencik always seemed to have a set off season plan and if it didn't go down like he wanted, he was hunting for alternate solutions very late.

Like a good MMA fighter, DiPoto seems to like the chaos of the scramble and I *think* there is going to be a LOT of scramble this off season. Whether he's actually *good* at the scramble is up in the air but I think he likes it.

craps

The dice game will be on a cement street corner, or in a basement, not on smooth felt in a casino and promoted on television about upcoming broadcasts.

But there will be at least one big name who ends up here with a pocket full of dead presidents in his wallet, and, very likely, one local big guy headed for sunnier climes.

DePoet lives on the action and will not pass when the dice come around to him.

Make no mistake, the GM will roll 'em, probably to grab what's in the pot and buy a band with a diamond ring (including faceted images of a SS and RH OF, on our reflection after the fact... and hold onto the dice and put a SP on the table and end up replacing another one before the night is out, and the game could last until next March.

Valencia and some rehab guys are merely appetizers.

zoom

You're about to hear me do something I've never done here before

I am now going to advocate trading Smith for a reliever and signing Jay.

We desperately need a lead-off hitter who can field, run the bases and be a leader at the top of the order, along with getting on base. I do NOT want to enter the 2017 season relying on Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia.

And...I believe Smith is pretty close to aging out.

I agree with all of that

Except that I think Jon Jay is down the list of available players who check off all those boxes. He doesn't steal, get extra bases, get on base really well or have even a decent arm. Fowler is a switch hitter. Cespedes, McCutchen and Desmond are RH and I'd have Bradley Jr., Saunders, Eaton and Ender Inciante all listed before Jay as lefties. Those are just names mentioned here recently.

You seem to be under the impression that we have 20 million.

We don't.

I want Jay because he's cheap and reasonably effective, not because he's the best player available. Every single other option on your list would either cost a prospect haul we really cannot afford to lose or a gazillion dollars we don't have. Every. Single. One of them. We have to keep some money for a power lefty reliever and a SS upgrade.

Possibly true

Saunders, Inciarte and Eaton might not be prohibitively expensive. The under $8 million OF plan plus $5mm SS and $6mm reliever is about the money remaining to get even with last year. If there's a significant increase, why wouldn't it be in that OF spot? I could see it being for the rotation especially if Karns or Walker went out in a package for a better leadoff OF. I'd just prefer better than Jay.

Inciarte was the key piece in a blockbuster deal.

He is considered a franchise-level leadoff hitter by the D'Backs and the Braves (his current owner). He would cost us one of the big pitchers (since the Braves are flipping over the card tables and searching the ground for dropped pitcher chips at the moment). No. Just no.

Saunders is literally incapable of staying healthy. No. Just no.

Eaton isn't a very good defensive CF, but would be OK in a corner...he doesn't run the bases much better than Jay, though...so I don't see why he's much better.

Hmmm......

Valencia is a very nice addition. I like him quite a bit. He makes the Smith re-signing a bit odd, at least in the way that Valencia is demonstrating more than enough vR chops to play in RF everyday.

I'm beginning to think it odd that there aren't any M's rumors linking us to another RHB that isn't named Cozart. So, I'm wondering if O'Neill's AFL stuff excited the M's FO enough that they really are thinking that he's up way early.

If so, then we really don't need Smith. If we swap him for the RP, as Matt has suggested, you can bet your bippy we're hot to trot on O'Neill being the next M's boy wonder.

who sez there ain't 20 mil ...

Last I checked, the M's had a new ownership thing. Leader of that group, a Mr. Stanton, may be wantin' to make a splash and find some more money to back the roll of the dice. I'm thinking the ownership group will open up for that.

Do not look at DePoet's honest face and think there is not a chance he's got loaded dice somewhere nearby fot this game ... especially when he sees Mr. Stanton with an aura of ego for jumping in to turn things around in a territory in which he lives, and take a bit of the credit himself.

Yes, Smith, and a young pitcher, and SS could be on their way out of here.

But not for the likes of John Jay, who was fine on the Supreme Court a long time ago and did fine in Saint Louis nearly as long ago.

In fact, you may recall one Mr. ZooRedNeck was supposedly working on deal for him 3 or 4 years ago.

And there is absolutely no way they would look twice at Saunders, he let them down with his fragility too often already. They couldn't take the bad PR backlash if he went belly up when his pond got dynamited.

A bullpen arm and Cozart (if, indeed, he is still their target and not just misdirection at this point) are simply not going to be terribly expensive.

You bet I think the bucks will go to an OF RH Bat (or possibly Fowler, though I doubt it).

Mr. Stanton wants to enter the game with some pizzaz, not left over pizza.

zoom

Care to place a wager?

I would bet you a Ben Franklin that we get no additional players that cost over 13 million per year in this offseason.

Agree

I've got payroll at around $138M right now with multiple holes left to fill. Need to continue with the creative trades or have Stanton drastically increase the payroll.

138mm

Potentially minus whatever is traded to acquire OF, SS, SP depth, BP depth...Then adding in what's acquired. And if Smith is traded that's a big chunk back in the kitty. Figuring money at this moment (even if we knew the ceiling) is a fools errand.

$13 mil or more ....

You're outta my price range, but I'm up for a bet.

How about a six pack of Deschutes JubelAle or some other Holiday ale (I've got the Descues already).

No Bud light or other crap beer.

I am wagterint that the M's will bring in somebody whose contact pays $13 mil or more, including incentives, before April 1 next year, and that amount will be for the 2017 season.

This does not include present players on the club.

You get the under.

If no deal by April 1, I'll figure out how to get the ale to you.

If they sign anyone within that period for more than $13 for next season, we arrange for immediate payment.

Billy

Hard to send beer in the mail...

...I'm way out here in New Hampshire...so perhaps the equivalent price ($10 or so?) for a good six-pack?

I'm down if you are. :)

New Hampshire?

...I thought you were in Puyallup.

OK, $10.

As I recall, Alexander Hamilton wanted to be king, but he got a Burr in his butt.

We are on for a Hamilton portrait.

You might wanna try the JubelAle anyway.

zoom

p.s. I'll expand my deal of Walker, Vogelsbach, and Marte with an A guy thrown in for MC Clutch and Tony Watson ... but, I won't bet a nickel on it.

Sigh

It's not 'new ownership'. It's exactly the same people...with different shares of the pie.

If anything, it's going to be even harder to raise payroll, since the Stanton bloc had to pony up an incredible amount of money to buy out most of the Nintendo stake. I can't imagine they're falling over themselves to spend more.

To quote Monty Python's Flying Circus

"Now for something completely different!"

A short while back there were some lightly bubbling rumors that the Phillies might consider trading their young 2B Cesar Hernandez.

This guy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernace02.shtml?utm_campaign...

Nah, sez me: They aren't really considering trading a cheap young IF who just blossomed into a .294-.371-.393 hitter. Did I tell you he switch-hits?

By the way, he's a young, cheap, blossoming 2B who came up and started 22 games in CF as a rookie (without particular distinction).

But now I find more hints in MLBT-R that he might be had, as the Phillies have a surplus of MiLB talented 2B's and they just got Kendrick. If you want an on-basey type of guy who can play a corner OF (hey, Dale Murphy went from C/1B to CF and became a 5 time GG'er in short order) then this is a guy to consider. And, guess what....he had a .405 OBP leading off last season. Phillies want MLB talent....which would mean an arm for us, but Mr. Hernandez (completely under the radar) is a pretty juicy addition. Backs up 2B/3B and plays LF (for example). Even has started at SS 11 times in the bigs.

Would you give up Karns for a guy like this? Until '16 you might have pegged him for a twin of our Shawn O'Malley. .298-.365-.413 at AAA for one, .286-.344-.367 for the other. But last year hints at something other. And I say that as an O'Malley fan.

Last year Hernandez was .279-.365-.391 vs. RHP and .341-.391-.399 vL. Wow, on the vL stuff. In '15 he was .254-.322-.331 vR and .314-.381-.388 vL. Wow (again) on the vL stuff!! He learned to pop the ball last year, too....with 11 triples and 6 homers (only 14 doubles). OK, he did have .404 and .431 BABIP #'s vs. lefties in those two years. Is he lucky or does he pepper the ball, on a rope, around the field vs. lefties? (he was .344 and .375 in short duty during '13-'14)

He had a down year in AAA and the bigs during '14, but his '15 and '16 seem to discount that.

Want a cheap leadoff hitter? is he any more of a risk that Jon Jay? OK, he's a bit more of a risk...and he costs whatever you have to give up, but he's interesting. And you might get him pronto. and not pay 3x$8M. Jay is a lefty who hits LHP as well as he hits RHP .288-.352 vR and .284-.352 vL, and he's a proven OF glove, but Hernandez initrigues me. Jay is Aoki with a way better glove. Hernandez? I'm not sure what he is. But the last two seasons he's been pretty dang interesting in nearly 1100 PA's. He's been a tough 100 OPS leadoff hitter who seems to be able to play a ton of positions.

Hey, he's Zobrist with less pop. I would rather have the original, but I would sure sniff around this kid for a while. If Philly will trade him, we should be willing to look at him.

Next up on Monty Python's Flying Circus, the Ministry of Silly Walks: https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-mozilla-002&hsimp=yhs-0...

I'm interested in exactly

That kind of get before taking someone you've got no expectation of having any possibility of being much more than average. There's other guys out there that will be available for prospects you can live without or that are worthwhile enough you don't mind losing Karns, Gohara or even Walker.

I think Jon Jay is punting 4th and one on the 50. It's safe.

It's also better than going first in the fish slapping dance.

Giving up Walker or Karns for Cesar Hernandez?

That would be the literal dictionary definition of CRAZY. No thanks for the soft skills wet noodle bat who is hitting ludicrously lucky playing in a tiny park. Yeah...I'll take O'Malley...the guy I have for free...

Considered the tiny park

Band box, maybe....

But his '16 away line of .327-.398-.424 seems to argue otherwise! :) In '15 he was better at home...but was on base 34.5% of the time on the road. BTW, for his career he's .298-.367-.364 on the road. I don't know if he has enough pop to say he "fueled" by anything, but he's sure not band-box fueled.

I like Karns, but in reality he's a 28 year old arm with a career 90 MLB OPS+, a 1.36 WHIP who walks 4 guys a game. His one VG season was as a 25 year old AA'er. If he throws 140 innings with an ERA of 4 next year we're all gong to be pretty tickled. I would trade Karns (hypothetically, for someone nice....Brad Miller back, maybe) in a hurry, rather than Miranda.

Not Walker.

Hernandez essentially has hit .287-.360-.373 over the past two seasons. That is almost exactly what Aoki hit in '13 and '14 and '15 and again in '16. Like clock-work. OK, Aoki's .737 vR beats the kid's .699, but the difference is all in Slg., not in their nose-to-nose Avg. or OBP.

Would you trade Karns for three years of a very cheap versatile/glovey Aoki?

The question is whether this Hernandez is real (worth debating)....not whether this Hernandez is good.

Dang it, Matt....quit making me think!! :)

Enjoying it all the way.....

Moe

His minor league BABIP was .345

Speed, infield hits, and a lot of soft fliners (the f is intentional...refers to "line drives" that are more like parachute flies hit with a lower launch angle) fuel a higher than average BABIP.

In the big leagues, his BABIP is .352 - the normal MLE for BABIP is down, not up. And he was mostly used as a part time player until this season. I believe this is a guy who can be defended differently to reduce his BABIP. I wouldn't project more than .320 going forward. He also isn't exactly a BB'K hero. He's not awful, but we're not talking about a guy who controls the zone all that well for a lead-off guy...at least not yet. His upside is Mark McLemore...but Mac took a long time to really gel.

I just...would you have traded, say, John Halama in his prime, for Mark McLemore? Or Rich Amaral?

I guess I am confused ...

Diddleyrot, When a new guy becomes the lead partner, the square dance often changes.

No way Nintendo, or Lincoln, or Harmstrong did not rule the budget.

They don't anymore.

The group is the same, but now they can crawl out from under their rocks ... a few of these present guys were beat up by suggesting the past ownership / and directorship.

It is a point of significant transition, or at least migh be, if the M's continue to capture the lead sports headline.

Stanton is a communications guy, and I don't see many of the other investors not grabbing for the ring with him using a bullhorn in their meetings.

And, Sabrerattler, I don't see many Franklin's kicking around in my wallet.

That $13 mil includes incentives, ok?

Deals got to be completed before April 1.

I'm over.

I'll put up a six of Jubelale, and you put up a pack of something decent, and we are in this dice game.

I'll keep the Jubel in a cool room as I plan on drinking it myself.

zoom

Great stuff!

Knowing what we know now, I would swap Halama for McLemore in a New York second.

But hind-sight is pretty clear,isn't it? From the age 28 to 37 only once did McLemore drop below a .353 OBP (all the way to .338). Give me 10 years of Hernandez with a .350 OBP (and his glovey stuff) and I will gladly swap out Halama...or Karns, who is better than Halama.

But we don't know what Hernandez will be, do we? If Hernandez falls all the way back to .272-.339-.348 (92), his '15 numbers, then he falls all the way to McLemore's '93 numbers.....which was the year he began his 10 year run.

I know he's a risk. I know until a year ago he was sort of O'Malley. But sometimes you roll the dice. Or read the tea leaves. Sheep livers? I get "soft skills," too. But unless we're getting Fowler (not likely, despite my dreams), Jay (no problem here, but he's blocked by Smith) or Desmond (.674 & .782 the last two years vs. .687 & .764 for Hernandez...Desmond does homer, though...would rather have him than Jay) then we're swapping out a pitcher for somebody, maybe Ozuna, for example.

Maybe the best play is to be patient and wait for the February panic? But the more I look at Hernandez the more I like him. If he's McLemore, then I'm in.

Enjoying this lots, pard.

Keith

The O'Neill early call-up is the wild card here. I'm sensing that the M's really liked what they saw in Arizona from our Tank. Is Smith just a placeholder?