Seattle Sports Insider

4 Light Bulbs - Hot Stove Edition

fill the sky with arrows? then we shall fight in the SHAAAAADE

Posted by

11/7/17

CRUNCH: Jerry Dipoto is comfortable with a CF job-share between Heredia and Haniger. MLB.com sez so. The idea passes the chuckle test, easily, presuming that Dyson doesn't face reality sooner than later.

I/O: This does free the M's to go for lumber in a corner OF spot. This frees the M's to target (ulp) J.D. Martinez, Jose Bautista, Jay Bruce, Lorenzo Cain, and their ilk. The Condor if JeDi gets REALLY ambitious.

CRUNCH: Hanjag wants to build a little altar to Giancarlo Stanton "starting with" James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, and going from there.

Stanton would be a YUGE get

The question is what the Marlins are going to do. If they're trading everybody off and building from the ground up, I don't think we have a package of prospects that would entice them.

However, I don't think they plan to sell off everybody, just who they can't afford. If they just traded Stanton and Dee Gordon, they still have a good core to build around and try winning while maintaining a realistic budget.

With Paxton's agent being Scott Boras, I think a package for Stanton starting with Paxton/Diaz makes a world of sense for both teams if the Mariners are truly going after Darvish and Ohtani-san. The Mariners add some dependability, the Fish get big upside at low cost.

I/O: Pipe dreams and air flutes notwithstanding, Stanton is on the market for what would be perhaps history's (?) biggest blockbuster. Says MLBTradeRumors.com, among many other sources,

The Cardinals are more likely to trade for an impact bat than sign one, suggests Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.comreported Saturday that the Cardinals are willing to offer “one of their best young pitchers” for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, and Goold adds that the Redbirds will have discussions with Miami about both Stanton and center fielder Christian Yelich this offseason.

I know jack doodle about the NL, and despite that, can confidently say that "one of the Cardinals' best young pitchers" might or might not be well-suited to lace James Paxton's cleats. Objectively speaking, I would give Paxton and ? for Giancarlo Stanton, and that's saying a whale of a lot.

The problem is, Paxton has only what, 3 years of club control left, which might not be exactly what the Marlins are looking for. Edwin Diaz as a center piece, however, that is a horse of a different color.

Dipoto proved, several times over, that he is capable of anything.

...

The Mainframe is not particularly pleased with the fact that Stanton hit only 59 homers last year. This would have fallen short of the big time even in 1963, much less before the McGwire/Sosa/Bonds era. But he does console himself with 7 WAR from a corner outfielder, which is like what our four athletic OF's did between them. Dr. D also would console himself with the nightly review of the pinball lights and bells on the ESPN HR Tracker. Not sure what it would be like, watching a season in which your #4 hitter went over 450 feet on 11 different occasions.

Who gets credit for bringing up Stanton with a straight face? Is it Bat and Hanjab? Anybody else?

...

CRUNCH: Lookout Landing with a comprehensive sabe on Kyle Seager's problems, about 1,000 words' worth or so.

I/O: Bill James with a comprehensive Tweet on Kyle Seager's problems, about 140 characters or so: he led the league in long-fly outs.

Dr. D respects LL greatly, but this is exactly how you FIND roto steals on draft day, grabbing all the guys whose balls were caught on the warning track. On a sabe level, it ain't like Seager is popping pitches up. As a completely separate issue: the scouts'-eye view is that Seager is evolving, he is anticipating pitches better; he is attacking them better and he is showing avg-distance RESULTS.

The worst possible world is that Seager has to dial it back in, return to what he used to be. The worst possible world is not what is going to occur. B'lee DAT.

...

CRUNCH: SodoMojo.com, often a pretty fun site, has the M's and Rays as dance padnas. Especially for Jake Odorizzi.

I/O: Double props for their roto-savvy remarks on Odorizzi's bad HR/F luck in 2017.

Did Dr. D just get those crunches and I/O's backwards? Actually that's cool. Think of that time Bruce Willis went out to apologize to Ben Affleck in Armageddon. Affleck: "Well, that's like 11 words or something, but whatever." Dr. D's birthday is Nov. 16 and, him being way DC instead of Marvel, we're doing a big Justice League b-day.

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Hot Stove

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Giancarlo Stanton

Comments

Ding Dong, the Rick is Dead.

http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/article/260668442/rick-griffin-scales-bac...

Funny how the Mariners created a new department for player fitness/conditioning/training, hired a hugely qualified expert to run it and then Rick Griffin decides that now is the time to step down. You'd almost think he was highly encouraged to do so.

As far as I'm concerned, that earns Lorena's paycheck all by itself.

Rick, I know you're a good guy and I hope you enjoy your golden years to their fullest, but...GOOD RIDDANCE.

Emeritus

Being allowed to retain the title is quite an honor - no doubt Rick Griffin did a phenomenal job fitting in, personality-wise, and we don't doubt he knows plenty about pulled hamstrings, but he is from a school about 6 generations back -

Knowing nothing about the situation from my chair, you certainly would look at the wiring in this condo and assume it's due for a replacement...

It's a funny thing, but there is SOME CHANCE that going from Worst to 1st in terms of sports psychology/training is just the magic sparkle dust an org needs... b'lee DAT...

Everyone loves Rick.

And, really, from the sound of the stories, he deserves it. He's a great person and a friend to many of the players with whom he worked over the years.

There does come a point, though, where you have to realize he's using 1980 sports medicine knowledge and it's 2017.

Odorizzi

You will remember that I was all over Odorizzi rather than Smyly last season. And I still like him. If the only way we get to Stanton is through Paxton, which I would leap at, then Odorizzi is a lower-cost cover for Darvish.

Somehow I think Stanton ends up in Boston and that Darvish is a better target, but Stanton rattling buildings in downtown Seattle would be fun, wouldn’t it?

BTW, on the death of Roy Halladay: I am not pilot but did a bit of searching about the ICON5 that he was flying. It is essentially a sport craft that lands on water or, Wheels down, a runway, but it is supposed to be nearly stall-proof (about 40 knots), spin-resistant, easily able to be pulled up out of a dive, and then landed on water. Do a YouTube on it if you are interested. I will be interested in seeing what the investigation says.

Halladay makes the Hall, maybe 1st time at the gate.

Do remember you landing with both feet on Jake Odorizzi

BJOL has him #39 at the moment, several spots ahead ahead of Sonny Gray at #43. (Dr. D loves these chess-type SP ratings.)

....

Yes very sad about Doc. A little philosophical Q: if offered his life at the age of 3, how many would take it? I'd consider it ...

Odorizzi has the benefit of a rubber arm.

You would have to feel pretty solid about his being able to give you innings and not bury you in games. I like him well enough, but...for the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, Indians, Red Sox...he's the FOURTH addition you make. And there's a good chance he'll be the best we do if we land him.

I'd take Halladay's life in a heartbeat, especially if offered

it at such a young age.

Forgetting about the EXPERIENCE of his life, the sheer IMPACT one could make in those 40 1/2 years would far outweigh whatever I'll manage in my time in this meat suit. I'm not even talking money (though that's one way to represent a portion of the impact one's life has on those around him/her), I'm talking about being able to connect with people about things I thought were important.

The brightest stars burn quickest. That's some cosmically poetic stuff, no? I'm not *happy* that Roy Halladay is dead, but I *am* happy that he died doing something he apparently loved, after living a life filled with as much success, glory, and appreciation as he had.

Few of us will be so lucky.

No kidding, Doc?

My birthday is also Nov 16!

I'd be down for a Stanton-Otani-Darvish package deal too... just seems like there's too many teams wanting too few names.

Whence cometh Bat's paradaemon plan

Darken the skies with offers, about $150M for Darvish and then a good 6 players for Stanton.... happy B-Day Corran. Knew there was something I like about yer :- )

I'm on record now...

...as predicting we get precisely none of those three. Our top acquisition will probably be Yonder Alonso and, like...Lance Lynn or maaaaaybe Odorizzi

Personally rate the chances of that at

< 51%

But it's Hot Stove Matt. You gotta learn how to go to a WWF match with a friend, y'know? You yell "it's fake! it's fake!" and three sections turn around and glare at you...

Solid Gold (Records)

I would need to see a 3rd really good acquisition to suggest that we could attempt some one on one's with the powers that be: Astros, Sox, Stros, Indians -- Dodgers, DC, etc

Lynn is one of the alts to the Darvish Otani double trouble dream match. But Lynn is a 114 ERA+ career and good for a 2.9 WAR average. This move alone gives you Pax-Lynn-Felix-Leake-Erasmo. Which to me is solid

With the money invested and time factor you have to get one of the decent 1B available. Yonder seems like a decent bet to perform well enough here 114 OPS+ down the stretch if you can pencil in a 110 to 120 OPS+ you can give the team a slight bump up vs the drag down from a bat 1st player in a bat 1st position completely flopping. 1.5 to 2 WAR well worth it vs a face plant.

So bumping Erasmo to the pen would be a spot for improvement I expect a decent year from Erasmo 1 to 2 WAR which is OK for a 5 but any of the available FA's should improve on those odds and range of pssible outcomes. Darvish, Otani, Cobb, Arrieta

OF either a corner or CF I like Cain bacause a soft WAR player athletic CF types seem to age better like Tori Hunter. I also think Cain can be had for 4-5 16 to 18 M per.

3 improvements I say 50-50 get me my requested 4 ( Darvish, Otani, Cain, Yonder) and I believe I'd favor the M's on the game consol or paper.

Decent bet

I think that is a decent bet, Matt. The AL West has a new paradigm coming down the pike: Keep up with the Astros (or try to sneak in with a WC spot).

Anything but a bold move doesn't do the first, barring an injury bug running through the 'Stros.

Stanton and stuff

Sorry can't take any credit spare perhaps before Stanton signed the huge is too small to describe extension. That said Stanton will make Pujols seem like a fair and reasonable in a few years He is owed 320Million from now until age 38 or 310 through age 37.

Miggy owed 184 million mininnum and he was negative WAR last year. expires age 40 unless top 10 in mvp voting year prior for 2 additional 30 million dollar options

Pujols kinda the same boat but both were signed up into the early 40's. 114 (4 years) to age 41 with 10M 10 year personal services contract age 41 last year

I guess I could make the case that Stanton with the contract expiring age 37 or 38 is actually in a way better but big right handed power bats tand not to age well. ( None of us do unfortunately)

Now if we got Oh-oh Otani and Darvish than yes I would be open to shipping off K-Pax. I would do so very relunctantly because he has long flashed C-Y potentials and last two years looking @ FIP he has put down the performance to back up that Ace level assessment.

Just to process we get a MVP type in Stanton ship out electric armed closer and potential CY type.

Darvish - Felix- Ohtani- Leake- Erasmo

My big question would be assume 6- 150 for Darvish 25M per and Stanton 29M per <-- player opt out age 30 Ohtani max bonus pool I would guess 7Mill or so and 20M for the fee plus mlb min until arb Can we assume 7M average. Let's call a 22M for 2 years of Alonso. The 4 additions add up to 72 M per year giver or take ( Stanton gradually salary increase) vs My plan

;-) ;^/ "^] Added player $ salary WAR

Stanton's Stanton 29 million WAR VAlue 7

Mine Lorenzo Cain 16 to 18M WAR Value 5

OTani and Darvish are in both as well as a soft endorsement for Alonso vs LoMo or one of the higher priced guys Hosmer or Santana.

It is not just Stanton vs Cain but with Cain you still have the defacto Ace on club control 3 years and a decent now but potential to dominate for pennies on the dollar with Diaz at the back end. Now Paxton paced to 6 WAR last year spare wierd injuries and Erasmo is a 1 to 2 WAR #5.

There is the additional question of the well rounded Cain WAR of 5 not being at all equal to the more singular hard WAR that Stanton Generates.

Thanks if you bothered to read my meanderings.

Han

1B and utility

I note Dustin Ackley is a free agent. It might not be that bad an idea to sign him to as minimal a contract as practicable and bring him to ST as a BU 1B and bench bat . Many coaches have screwed with him over the years. Maybe Edgar, who didn't get a chance the first time around, could work with him and get him back to the .270 BA, near .800 OPS guy we thought he was going to be. And he always was pretty good at 2B and 1B. But he'd certainly have incentive to resurrect himself and Edgar and Brosius have proven their abitlity to settle guys out.

Seems decent

I want to say there were some who saw Ackley as more Olerud or Edgar upside offensively. Yeah, that's upside and I'm not expecting close to that anyway. .280/.335/.465 though? That would be valuable.