Let me start with this, I like Haniger.
I know about the bashing AAA partial season. I know about the light-speed exit velocity. I know about the late improvement and promise. He's got all that. In spades. But it doesn't make him a 105 OF, and we need one of those, even with our glovey whippets in the OF. Playoff teams have one of 'em, you will remember.
And I like the kid. Really.
But there are concerns, you must admit. Exit velocity? Sure it was impressive (93.6 Avg. EV), but just above him on the list were Mac Williamson, Rickie Weeks and Josh Rutledge. Hardly a Murderes' Row, there. So it seems that exit velocity doesn't guarantee that Haniger is some sort of Giancarlo Stanton. Or a Nelson Cruz, who at #2 in AVG. Exit Velo was one better than Stanton and twenty-one spots better than Haniger.
Haniger's eye-popping AAA performance was driven by a June and July (he was promoted from AA in early June) when his BABIP was a gaudy .441. True Stuff! .441! Two months of that kind of luck will tend to make you look pretty good. Aaron Judge, Nelson Cruz, and Giancarlo Stanton, the top three in MLB Avg. Exit Velocity had BABIP's of .282, .328 and .290. Haniger finished the season AAA season at .384 BABIP, so he came back to earth a little bit. But even that "relatively" pedestrian number is dang glitzy. AOh, it's unsustainable, too. In the bigs, he fell to .256. That was, of course, in a fairly small sample size (77 AB's where he didn't K or HR). But that same line of reasoning can be used to chip away at his "impressive" rookie stint. 5 HR's in 109 AB's isn't bad but it doesn't make him any more than a bit of a longshot to get to 20+ HR's next year. Actually, I would look at his 236 AA PA's as a fairer MiLB place to begin any appraisal: .294-.407-.462 is a nice line. Especially with only 37 K's in those 236 PA's. That's just a 16% rate and he had 30 BB's to offset them. But he hit only 5 AA HR's. There's a fairer look, I think, as his .342 AA BABIP is more human-like.
I will give Haniger this: His MLB vR split line of .250-.322-.438 may likely be sustainable. If it is, then his OPS+ will be above his '16 number of 85, because last season he was only .172-.273-.310 vs. big league lefties, albeit in only 33 PA's. This after a blistering MiLB vL line of .425-.510-.700 (approx) vL. I'm not making that up, either!! However, that line only indicates how inflated his MiLB overall numbers were. Those are Barry Bonds numbers. And not the clean Bonds.
All in all, we've sort of rolled the dice, betting that Haniger can bring a real bat to the Seattle OF. Because if he doesn't, we're stuck at 85 OPS+, across the board, LF-RF. Well, unless Gamel hits like a International League MVP. The last six of those, counting backwards are Gamel, Matt Hague, Steven Souza, Chris Colabello, Mauro Gomez and Russ Canzler. Gamel hit 1 MLB HR last year, his only career tater. But that gives him one more Matt Hague, one less than Russ Canzler and just two less than Gomez. Colabello is either a guy with talent and power....or a guy about to bust, take your pick. I like Gamel. He's better than a bunch of those guys, I think. And I'm not any more optimistic that Gamel is the COF bat I would like to ahve than I am Haniger is. Some less, I suppose.
But I wouldn't mind having Steven Souza, and have said so for the past several years. Souza, as it turns out, isn't a bad place to begin sizing up what Haniget might look like. He has a gaudy AAA line of .346-428-.579, which is sort of Haniger-like. In the bigs he's been a 100 and 95 OPS+ guy the past two seasons, with 16 and 17 HR's. He's a RHB, of course, and was thought to be a + type glove in the corners, although his dWAR hasn't indicated that.
So there's sort of the bottom line that we hope Haniger is: 95-100 OPS with something in the 18-20 HR neighborhood. If he does that AND brings the CF glove to RF, then he's pretty nifty. Anything above 110 is gravy, the good kind that comes with chicken fried steak, mind you.
But all the same, Haniger would look much nicer, to my eyes, were he in CF (with the chops to play it), flanked by JD Martinez to his left. Now that's where his bat could really play.
dWAR is a neat thing, but there are legimate questions about whether our OF will bring some lumber to the plate. Haniger is one of those questions. Ditto Martin and Dyson and Heredia and Gamel. Where is a Buhner when you need him?
Carry on.
Keith
The most interesting thing about Haniger is that his name sounds like a 1970's tv show titled with the last name of it's character.
McCloud
Columbo
Kojak
Mannix
Baretta
Cannon
Banacek
Or other types of movies and tv shows:
Conager (western)
McClintock (western)
Matlock (legal drama)
Haniger's name likewise just sorta rolls off the tongue.
Now if he can just play him some baseball...
And that's the name of that tune!
Who loves ya baby?
Moe,
Your post about Haniger was helpful in showing how much of a risk Jerry DiPoto is taking with the outfield. We all have hopes that Haniger and Gamel will step in right away and provide at least 100 OPS+, with one of them perhaps reaching toward 110. But we've had a TON of young outfielders step onto the Safeco stage and disappoint, sometimes leaving gaping holes.
Is DiPoto gambling? Big time with the outfield. I'm wondering if he has kept some powder dry for an in-season trade if neither of these guys steps up as hoped. Toss the dice in April and May, but if they don't show enough we can add a veteran stop-gap. Dunno, I just wonder.
Seriously...pick a Mariner outfielder who failed when called up. None of there were pretty good at everything the way Haniger is. They all K'd too much, swung too often, didn't hit for much power, played bad defense, ran the bases poorly, or only had power to one side, had poor pitch recognition...some combination of one or many of those things...in the minors. They all had big demonstrable flaws. I challenge you or anyone else here...find a single significant flaw with Haniger. I dare you.
Dustin Ackley leaps to mind, with his .303/.421/.487 in AAA in 2011, with admittedly only 7 steals, but a stellar 11.7% K rate and at a younger age than Haniger is now. He was slated to be a GG 2nd Baseman (not an outfielder, but he did play there in college and wound up there in the Majors) that perennially challenged for batting titles. He was THE can't miss prospect, so I'm not compeletly shocked by Moe's gunshy nature here. It should be noted that Ackley did not have a propensity to strike the ball especially hard though.
Agree with Moe that Haniger is anything but a sure thing. The M's own website has Haniger as the org #13, not baseball's #25 :- ) and Dipoto speaks in terms of giving Hanger a CHANCE to play in 2017.
The point is also compelling that if Haniger busts, well, with Leonydas in CF and ?? in LF we could be looking at a very dicey situation offensively in the outfield. I guess Nelson Cruz and Danny Valencia are the fallbacks offensively?
Matt takes the other side of this one and it may deserve to be split out ...
You can take any stat that is known to have significant value for big leaguers, list the top 50 of them, and find 15 bad players who were good at that one thing. Exit velo is important, but hitting is:
a) swinging only at strikes
b) making contact when you swing
c) hitting the ball hard
d) hitting the ball in the air, especially to the pull side
Haniger definitely has C and D, but that alone won't make him a stud in the big leagues, as you point out. But the guys you list who are "no murderer's row"...one is a former big leaguer who hits the ball hard in AAA because he's had thousands of at bats, two are guys who strike out a TON.
That just isn't a very good way to go about player evaluation.
You have a good point about BABIP, of course, which is why no one is projecting that he'll hit .315 in the big leagues. :) (biiiiiig smile everyone!) But you have to look at the physical tools and the component stats for ALL of the skill metrics. Does he control the strikezone well? Yes...pretty darned well for a slugger type. Carrer 17.6% K rate (above average skill for contact) against a career 10.1% walk rate (also slightly above average skill for walks). Does he run well? YEP. Does he play good defense? YEP. Does he do anything particularly poorly? Not from what I can see...+ arm, + range, + contact + power + discipline...not +++ in any of those things, but no minuses either.
Hey Doc...
If you don't make Haniger an SSI Best Bet...you're whiffing.
No player is ever guaranteed...but Haniger is about 90% to be productive at some usable level in the big leagues in my opinion.
Matt, I like him.
But there is a bit of a bet that seems to be played by the M's that he's more than just "some level of usable."
I'm about 100% convinced that he's "some level of usable." Already he's a decent 4th OF, bench guy....precisely because he doesn't have huge holes, as you mention. But whether he is a reliable RF bat, which usually asks for some thunder, is a different thing. Jason Heyward was some level of usable last season...heck, he won a GG. But his 70 OPS+ doesn't get him anywhere above that level. At 110-115 he was a tremendous MLB ballplayer.
If Haniger hit only .220, but with 24 HR's and a 90 OPS+, I would think he was fine and dandy, as those HR's would drive in some runs.
Three glovey 85 OPS OF's is not a real recipe for success. Or at least it is hard to find teams that used such a recipe.
Were Haniger in CF, I would be much more lusty about him and about our chances, because it would likely mean a more booming bat in RF.
Steven Souza is a pretty good MLB player. If Haniger gets to 100 OPS+ then you can bet I'll be a happy camper.
The problem is the Mariners are taking a player, at 33 years old, who excelled as a part time platoon player and are going to make him their starting left fielder, out of the position that would provide him the most value (CF).
Either Martin or Dyson will be playing out of position in LF. Particularly since they moved in the fences. Three years ago or so, this would have made some sense.
What needs to happen is Dyson in CF. Haniger in RF. Get a real left fielder and make Martin your 4th OF/defensive replacement. Or Dyson if you'd prefer, but I think Dyson should start over Martin.