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Solid points as far as I'm concerned, mal.
He's Not Dead Yet
A little change of scenery is all he needs
While Mariners fans have been cautiously excited about the potential for Drew Smyly and worried but hopeful for Felix Hernandez to return to his 2015 form, there has been little eagerness for the potential of Yovani Gallardo to do anything other than be replaced. The projection systems have offered little reason for a different opinion; suggesting the reduced innings, increased home run tendency, and newfound inability to leave runners on base as new standards rather than random fluctuations.
I started like everyone else; asking, "Is this all that Seth Smith was worth?" And so I've spent a month pouring through Yovani Gallardo's stats, and after all this time, I think Yovani will be fine this season, in fact, I think this year will bear a striking resemblance to what he looked like from 2013-2015, which is a mid-rotation innings eater. It's hard to figure exactly where to start, but the most obvious is probably Old Number One.
The Number One complaint; Yovani's slowly dissipating fastball velocity. It's popular myth that Gallardo has seen his fastball speed decay over the last 6 years, but really, there was one sudden dip from 2011-2013 where he went from averaging 92.5 mph (topping out at 97) to averaging around 91 (and topping out at 94.5). He slipped a bit in 2013 to 90.7 mph but rebounded to 91.3 the next season. He was back at 90.5 in 2015, and the overall 90.3 make it seem like he's lost another tick, but he had arm issues early last season after missing the first week of spring training and was throwing well below his career numbers in 4 starts in April before landing on the DL. When he returned in June, his fastball velocity averaged 91mph, and 91.4 in September. This spring, Gallardo has averaged 91.2 mph on his 4-Seamer, the same speed he's averaged this time of year going back to 2012. Gallardo arrived in camp on time this year and noticeably thinner than last season. He says he's revised his arm conditioning program, but regardless he looks poised to average 90-94 miles per hour on his fastballs like he has for the last 5 years.
Similarly, Gallardo's K% has been in decline for years. Now, the K% really is hard to argue; in 2009 it stood at an impressive 25.7% and over the course of the next 6 years fell by a point or 2 each season until it reached 15.3% in 2015, before recovering slightly to 16.2% last season. However, Old Yovani has achieved some advantages over Young Yovani.
Since 2013, Gallardo has seen an increase to groundballs('07-'12 44.6% GB vs '13-'15 50.0% GB), and decreased to his home runs allowed (1.0 HR/9 vs. 0.9 HR/9), his walk rate ('09-'12 - 9.3%, from '13-'15 - 8.3%) and his overall percentage of PA that ended in an extra base hit (During his hey-day '09-'12 - 7.3%, from '13-'15 - 6.6%). Paying more attention to how batters hit the ball seems to have largely benefitted Gallardo, and in terms of results, Gallardo was as good or a better a pitcher from 2013-2015 than he was during his High K% prime from 2009-2012. Last season saw all of those factors in serious decline (43.2 GB% / 1.2 HR/9 / 11.6 BB%, 8.8 XBH%). The trick is figuring out why the failure? Was Gallardo done, or were there other factors?
To start, let's go back to that velocity question; Gallardo started the season at Hisashi Iwakuma levels of velocity. He made 4 starts with an average fastball around 87-88, ran an ERA over 7 and allowed XBH in 10.8% of his plate appearances with a measly 37.9% GB rate. Of course, that wasn't the end of Yovani's problems last season; he returned with improved velocity (90.8 mph for June) but took several starts before returning to form, after July 1st, he ran a 46.2% GB rate, 8% XBH/PA, but the walks (12%) and HR/9 (1.3) got worse. So why?
For starters, Camden Field and the AL East in general, is a hitter's haven. Park Factors can vary, but Camden is universally rated as a home run hitter's park* (deep corners but shallow alleys), and Yankee Stadium, Fenway, and Toronto are all well famed for their offensive potential, only the Trop (which rates very similarly to Safeco) qualifies as advantageous to pitchers. Worse for Gallardo, he suffered the joys of Mark Trumbo manning Right Field for him in nearly 75% of his games, but he's just one guy right? If you haven't seen the bunch of recent articles, you should know that MLB has new numbers on Outfield fielding derived from Statcast. Mark Trumbo ranks head and shoulders above (below?) the competition as the worst outfielder in the game last season, making -43 fewer plays / 150 games compared to the average outfielder. This becomes visible in Gallardo's stat line:
Flyballs/Line Drives that weren't Home Runs by Field
LF
H /BF/2B3B
18/58/7 (12.5% '16 - 13.5% C) .310 BABiP
CF
18/72/9 (12% '16, 10.3% C) .250 BABiP
RF
26/66/12 (18.2% '16, 12% C) .394 BABiP (10 points higher than previous career high)
It wasn't just lefties pulling the ball against him either, opposite field hitters to RF posted impressive marks too;
12/35/6 (17.1% '16, 9.3% C)
.343 BABiP (30 points higher than previous career high)
These factors, the easier homers, doubles, and triples, were exacerbated by the out of control walk rate. Gallardo has never had spectacular control, but it's always been solid, so why so many more walks in 2016? He began his career in Milwaukee, throwing pitches to Jonathon Lucroy and Martin Maldanado, two of the best pitch framers in the game. When he was traded to the Rangers in early 2015, that flipped; Robinson Chirinos, his catcher in Texas, and later Matt Wieters with the Orioles, are among the games worst pitch framers. Statcorner tracks oTkS%(Out of Zone pitches taken for a Strike), and Gallardo, more consistently than any other pitcher, finished in the Top 10 in this category every season from 2010-2014 running 10-12% of his OoZ pitches. This fell to a still above average 9% in 2015, and an average ~7% in 2016. So Wieters effectively squeezed Gallardo's strike zone tighter than it had ever been in his career. As I'm sure we're all aware, Gallardo doesn't have the swing and miss stuff that would allow him to have a lot of success in such a situation.
Yovani Gallardo started last season pitching hurt, pitched in a strong hitter's park in a division filled with hitter's parks to a catcher almost incapable of stealing strikes, that forced Gallardo to cough up more walks and hittable pitches with a bad outfield defense (with at least one corner a qualified league worst in nearly every start). Considering all of that, it seems like a variety of factors are set to improve for Yovani Gallardo, more than for any other member of the Mariners Starting 5. Have as much faith as you want in Drew Smyly; but his outfield defense in Tampa was good, his catchers (primarily Curt Casali and Bobby Wilson) were good pitch framers, he was healthy, and he pitched in a home park that has a very similar HR Factor to that of Safeco, his own HR/FB% was improved over the previous season. If he's going to be better for the Mariners, the change will come from within. Yovani Gallardo by contrast, can't help but get better.
Gallardo is a tinkerer, a guy who made it work at the same level it always had in the second best hitter's park in the game when his best fastball went from 97 to 94/95, he kept it up when he moved to the AL and lost his miracle pitch framers. Last season, everything that could go wrong, went wrong for Gallardo. This year, every one of those factors is in full reverse. If you believe in Felix Hernandez' ability to return to form this season, then remember that Gallardo is only 3 months older, with virtually identical fastball velocity. He's not suddenly going to become the ace of the staff, but I'm honestly excited to see what Yovani Gallardo can do this season.
Comments
2
Yovani Gallardo had a bad season for base thieves in 2013, runners went 15-0 stealing a base. Gallardo decided to do something about it. A guy that had never picked off more than a single runner in a season picked off 4 in 2014, 3 in 2015, and 2 more last season. Gallardo's ability to control the running game seems to have improved to a strength: Base stealers are only 24/41 in attempts against him over that span, a 59% success rate.
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1. Didn't know that Trumbo was AS bad as that. Thanks for the stats amigo.
1a. For sure his context was tough in Balmer.
2. On the framing... would almost re-raise you Mal. I think the umps like Gallardo very much. 50-50 balls are going to go his way and that should persist -- the more so with Zunino.
3. Sure hope there's something to that, the idea that he was temporarily hurt from July 15 - Jun 16 or thereabouts.
4. Other things too. 1-3 not exclusive :- )
5. Solid graphic of Billy Crystal into the bargain. That's the big thing from where Dr. D sits.
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Quick little reply: my queasiness about Gallardo has never pertained to any velocity loss. Rather, mushiness in general, which is not unusual here. As to whether it could get worse, ask Jeff Fassero ;- )
Very glad to see a detailed, interesting saber case made for Gallardo. If he were to run anything like a league-average xFIP that would be huge for the M's -- probably save us (me and Wish!) two or three games in the standings, the first month or two.
Keep it comin'! Provacative guest post.
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EDIT TO ADD - THAT'S 3 VOTES, with Moe, Billy Zoom and Malcontent. Anybody else?!
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I didn't want to press that case too hard, but yeah, Gallardo seems to get more out of good framers than any other pitcher except David Price. Statcorner has a leaderboard for the oTkS%, and the only other pitcher that consistently makes the Top 10 is David Price. He seemed to make it work with Chirinos, but I feel like I read somewhere that while Wieters is pretty solid about not giving strikes up, he's one of the worst framers in the game for pulling balls into strikes - but I couldn't find the article. Anyway, I totally agree that Gallardo + pitch framing is going to result in LOT of grumbling coming from the batter's box.
Regarding the mushy pitches, I'm no evaluator, but looking at PitchFX, it seems like his 2-seem, 4-seem, and slider all move at similar speeds and move on slightly different ways, I can imagine how that might stop hard hit balls without generating swings and misses. He seems to be toying with his change up a lot more this spring, which moves like his sinker but slower with more run and fall. I've thought for a while that JeDi picked him and Felix for training partners; to discuss pitches, usage, getting old, etc. It could be Yovani teachers Felix how to work a mushy fastball and Felix teaches Yovani to throw a hard change properly.
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I never had a problem with the Gallardo add. He was a reliable #4/5 who consumes innings for breakfast.
But I think we may find by mid-season that we have better, younger arms.
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Very well put together. I've been hoping someone could find reasons where I had not. I can keep watching and hoping you're right for now. Unfortunately there has been so little of him to watch this spring and it hasn't looked good. I'll go on this for a couple weeks while I wait for those images to get to me.
Thanks for calming my fit.
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Great points across the board. My big problem with people writing him off so quickly is that he was hurt for a huge chunk last year. Now it's one thing to write a guy off for always being injured, but he's never been labeled an injury-prone guy, and if I'm gonna write someone off I want to see them fail for an extended period while fully healthy. Add one vote for me too doc.
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just kidding. We're at 4. Do I hear five?
For the record, Mal's lawyerly objection was overruled with a bang of Dr. D's gavel that sent splinters flying. But you guys go on ahead without me.
Hey Wish. Cool avatar right?
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Count me in at -2, even though malcontent makes some great points about velocity late in the year, etc.
His slider is just too mushy and sub MLB level at this point. I'm amazed hes been able to hang on this far.
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But looking forward to the DVR today from MLB network. Gallardo starting - hoping to see signs of life on Mars :- )
Am going to run a Gallardo post with the vote tallies. All pregnant ballots and hanging chads included. Anybody else want SSI to name names?
I've got it at +3, -5 for Dr. D's "SSI WORST BET."
13
These are votes for Gallardo being a decent SP, right? Or is this the line for Brexit? Or Trump? Ah, who cares, I'll vote now and live with the consequences later.
Geez Mal, you're making me reeeeal happy I stuck up for Gallardo the last few days. I was running on faith in JeDi, but now you've given us sabermetrics! Who needs faith when you've got cold, hard numbers?
If Yovani gets a hype train, can we call it the Mexican Train? Or is that variant of dominoes too politically incorrect...
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And we all miss Gilda too.
Surprised nobody used them for so long
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It's been quite a while since I posted an article here (You can tell from the painful formatting). Like everybody keeps saying, it's a great community here.
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Was wondering whether you want me to tweak the formatting next time.
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I wrote this in notepad, transferred to evernote, and finished in the post writer and somewhere in there the spacing on my paragraph breaks broke. I've never been much of an HTML guy and was trying to get it finished in a timely manner so my good friend Yovani could make me look as bad as possible today.
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I made some comments earlier about JeDi probably having reasons why Gallardo was his preferred Sunk Cost, over Random Player X. These sounds like great reasons. Fills in a hole I couldn't see into at all quite nicely - or as Doc says, different lightbulbs.
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Yet
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I'm with you. I am not hopeful for Gallardo in the sense of expected performance probability. I figure A.) JeDi saw something and B.) it contained high upside and low probability.
Count me on the Worst Bet side of the discussion, but willing and eager to be proved wrong. That's meant however to include a possibility that Gallardo rebounds, perhaps even beyond our dreams - I just don't think it highly probable. Does that leave me on the fence?
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The first 2 pitches in a row that I liked came right after he gave up the 2 run HR to Myers in the first. Kind of good news there, he certainly didn't cave. The other is that the wind was going out to RCF all game. Not sure any of those homers go out most days And he got Myers to pop out the next time on a good sequence, then struck him out on a better sequence to end the 4th. There were good pitches and it wasn't as bad an outing as the statline, walking the 2nd batter you face is often just the beginning though.
I've seen that he can execute good fastballs, curveball and changeups just not consistently today. If I saw a good slider I misidentified it. I did have some distractions though, didn't catch every pitch. 1 more before opening day.
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Great article. Applause to Malcontent.
...but Gallardo a firm sell for me.