The Dustin Ackley Conundrum
"He's dead, Jim" vs. "He's only MOSTLY dead..."

Dustin Ackley is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.  The guy was the college hitter of the DECADE.  He never hit lower than .400 in his collegiate career, and that’s with having TJ surgery to fix his UCL.   I figured his easy middle ground was a previous college hitter of the decade, Robin Ventura.  Robin was also left-handed, also a 3-time All-American, also an infielder, also went through a horrible streak (0-for-41 as a rook) and was still an 1800 hit man with 50+ WAR despite a catastrophic injury in the middle of his career.  That’s quite a fine career to aspire to, but I believed Ackley had it in him.

So why has he been so bad lately?

This year he’s come out of the gate, complete with his new slow-windup-swing (since scrapped) and has proceeded to… completely faceplant.  The guy can’t buy a single with government assistance and some calls to a loan shark, and he has exactly ZERO extra base hits in 13 games.

.114/.170/.114.  That’s 5-for-44 if you’re curious.  Phxterry asked in the shouts, “How long does Ackley get if there is no improvement?”

After all, there are a couple of guys on the farm who can take his place pretty quickly.

Franklin: 7 games, .296/.367/.333 (missed games with the flu), .283/.351/.455 career
Miller:  11 games, .359/.444/.615 (obviously did NOT have the flu), .342/.416/.519 career

Miller is still aimed at SS (where Brendan Ryan is putting up a Ryan-like .184/.273/.184 line) but either man could come up and put Ackley out of his misery.

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But is this year’s early misery self-created or an artifact of “sample size”?

As pointed out in this article on SodoMojo by JJ Keller (a far more math-oriented version of my Luck post from a few days ago), Dustin Ackley is suffering from a luck-storm of epic proportions. 

Which you can tell from just these three figures: .339, .265, .132.

That’s his BABIP the last three years.  .132 is a worse BABIP than you get playing fungo on the diamond before the game.  It’s literally impossible for it to be that low for a season.  There are 34 seasons in Major League HISTORY with a BABIP of .200 or less, and just 25 in the last 50 years, none lower than .175 (100 games).  These are almost all pinch-hitters, btw.  Over 400 plate appearances it’s happened FIVE times in the last half-century that a guy sprained his 4-leaf-clover so badly that his BABIP couldn’t be at least .200.

Keller posited that Dustin’s BABIP should be more like .274 for this year (shaky foundation with so few ABs to deal with, but that was the “real” figure) or closer to .300 for his career (which is about right if you just look at the first two BABIP figures above).  I’ll take his word for it on the math.

A “fair” BABIP (and considering that Ackley has stung several balls right at people and isn’t rolling over weakly or hitting infield flies, he SHOULD have a decent BABIP) would get Dustin an average of about .250.  Not great, but double what he's currently doing.  At .250/.305 he gets a bit more time before we start hating on him, doesn't he?

His Ks are down early in the year.  He's hitting too many grounders and not enough line-drives.  His O and Z-swing numbers are on pace but he's making more contact in BOTH cases. He's only missing one out of 20 pitches he swings at in the zone - he just isn't getting the loft on the ball to smash it into the outfield.

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I don't think Ackley is doing anything amazingly wrong. He's even swing at more first-pitch strikes, which was a problem in previous years (allowing him to get behind in the count too easily).  He's starting to go the other way again (to no good effect yet, but it should come). The kid is just getting some very bad breaks.  There's still a pulse in Dustin's game. 

 

Could he be another Gordon Beckham, who comes into pro ball strong and then gets progressively worse?  Maybe.  Beckham stopped walking and started striking out more though, as he got desperate at the plate.  Guys would throw him stuff off the plate and know he would swing (when you're swinging at 40% of out-of-zone pitches you're digging your own grave).  Ackley's still holding steady around 25% O-swing. He's not obviously pressing at the plate.  He Just. Can't. Buy a hit.

Last year I was very surprised at Ackley's very low XBH figure (27%).  His LD% of nearly 20 was fine.  I felt like a lot of his troubles last year could have been mitigated by some of those line-drives falling for hits.

This year he's not clubbing line-drives yet.  I expect them to come, which is why I suggested that Ackley's not really in danger before July.  His defense is fine and he's hitting in the bottom of the order.  Andino can give him days off.  If he's not lacing doubles (or dribbling singles, whatever) by July, though, then we'll have to see how Franklin and Miller are doing.

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We can't wait for his "luck" to turn around forever.  Jack has to win this year, and Ryan is the only offensive black hole he can really afford.  Ackley is only mostly dead, but if we're ever gonna storm the castle with him as a key member then the man in black had better start his recovery soon.

~G

Blog: 

Comments

1

I can't help but wonder what the BA is on routine grounders to the second baseman. Hit enough of 'em, and your total BABIP will be pretty low. Hit them at historic frequencies, and your BABIP may end up, well, historically low. Not a serious comment or analysis on my part, but it sure captures my impressions of Ackley last year and this year, despite a few "at 'em" balls.

2

Ackley is peppering the second basemen with all kinds of batted balls.  Here's his Safeco hit chart.
That ain't pretty.  WAY too much red on the right side of that infield, and not enough blue anywhere.  He's contributing to his BABIP problem with that, but I still believe it'll get sorted out.  if not, though, death-by-weak-second-base-grounders is gonna be in the autopsy notes for sure. ;-) 
~G

3

Read somewhere (can't remember where) that the reason that Ackley is hitting so many grounders to second base is that he has too much "top hand" on his swing that is causing him to roll his wrists over and hit all those grounders directly into the shift ????

4
Kman's picture

A guy hits more grounders his luck is likely to decrease. When a young player tapped as a top hitter can't beat the shift, there is a problem. M's have a big problem. Youngsters promoted as the future are not quite ready, in spite of their label as the core. It's a marketing problem. If Ackley's issues were new (aside from subtleties of possible causes) that would be one thing. Time to send him down shortly and give the unentitled studs a good look and Ack time to work on things. If the current crop is not ready the M's are not ready to win, plain and simple. Not to write him off but to get real. The value proposition is the hard thing here. Demote Ackley and lose major value. What to do?

5

three premium young talents like Ackley, Smoak (some would dispute his premium talent) and Montero have all become undproductive at the plate and failed to fulfill their promise (so far). No doubt that this kind of thing happens to young players, and the M's would have you believe that they all just need to figure things out. They may be right. But after watching the M's try unsuccessfully to develop hitters over the years, you've gotta wonder if the problem isn't the common denominator...they all are promising young hitters FOR THE MARINERS. Is it confidence-robbing umpire bias? Poor coaching/instruction? Failure to separate out mere promising talent from promising talent that will succeed in the bigs? I don't have a clue.
It HAS been good to see Seager start to show flashes of last year. When we can get Saunders back, and hopefully get him back to producing, that will be a real plus too.
Still, if you construct your rebuild around young talent, it sorta helps if most of that young talent thrives. Doncha think?!

6

How about we give Ackley 30 days off and send him to Colorado to work with Mike Bard, then bring him back after his swing is fixed. I'm only half kidding.

7

As Sandy has pointed out on numerous occasions. Our last productive, home-grown hitter was A-Rod, right?  Raul had to go to KC to get good, Guillen had to go to Detroit, etc.
You could say Saunders is looking like one, but even he had to go OUTSIDE the org to get help from Mr. Bard in order to set himself straight.  We couldn't fix him.
Maybe Seager will be #2, but I'd rather Kyle was #5 or 6 after Montero, Smoak, Ackley, Miller...
We can't keep drafting or acquiring top-20 prospects if we can't turn them into top-50 players.  Or top-100 players.  Or top TWO-HUNDRED players. That's kind of a problem.
Now, we're not alone.  KC has a tremendous list of young talents, none of whom have become the world-beaters they need them to be yet.  It took them what, half a decade to get it right with Alex Gordon? Hochevar never could get it right as a starter and they've moved him to the pen.  Hosmer, Moustakas and Escobar are all struggling. They imported somebody else's pitching because they couldn't produce any of their own.  That's my next step with this team, honestly: trading our young top-50 talents for somebody else's tremendous player.  Because if we can't turn our prospects into world-beaters then we need to get ours from someone who already has.
First we get to watch Montero, Smoak and Ackley try to figure it out (without any apparent assistance) for a few more months, though.
~G

8

That will be the focus: swing in 2011 vs swing in 2013. But apparently I have actual work to do, so that will have to wait. ;-)  I was not unhappy to see Ackley trying to get back to more of his college stance in the last couple of games.  Lacing shots to oppo field and crushing pitches off the RF gap would be great to see again.  I'm sure he's longing for the sight just as much as we are.
~G

10

If I were Seattle, I'd hold onto my good pitching unless I absolutely needed it to get a Mike Stanton type, and I'd trade my hitting prospects before they get more than a dollup of MLB playing time.

11

It's the same Zduriencik that pointed his finger at Braun, Fielder, and Weeks, who chose our guys.
And the same Zduriencik that chose when to bring the Brewers to the big leagues, vs bringing our guys to the big leagues.
And the same Zduriencik overseeing how much overcoaching they get or don't.
Kyle Seager didn't blow up upon being promoted aggressively.
............
If Harang is going to throw the ball like that, his ERA+ is going to be better than 100.  So will Bazooka's.  The M's could be lining up a championship rotation, and that is leaving the Ackley-Smoak-Montero situation as the big holdup.
Yeah G, I don't get it.  Thing is, the guy who brought us Ackley, Smoak and Montero is also the guy who brought us Braun, Weeks and Fielder.  Who to solve the problem if not him?
............
Seems to be a pitch-recognition thing with Ackley.  Could be two years.  With all three of them.  So now what?
Sigh.  Maybe Ackley's and Smoak's hits will start falling in tonight :- )

12

I don't remember where I heard it, but it seems a true idiom. There aren't a lot of prospects that showed Ackley's blend of patience, pop, and speed that have completely crashed and burned. As long as Ackley has an above average eye for balls and strikes, he'll be capable of making the magic adjustment that allows him to succeed, just like Michael Saunders. Of course, if that adjustment is still years away from being made, the Mariners can't afford to warrior for it anymore.

13

I still think they really messed him up with all "#3 MOTO hitter" talk after his initial call up. I had a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach when he said that he was trying to hit a HR every AB like he did in his interview with Drayer at the beginning of last year. It's one thing for a giant like Morse to say it and something entirely different for your skinny 2B to say it. His swing got really long, then he couldn't catch up to certain pitches, pitchers exploited it...and he couldn't adjust. He came out of his off season with the weird "pepper" swing that was a disaster. Now he's maybe getting back to his original swing.
Dude is confused about what it is to be Dustin Ackley, maybe for the first time in his life. I hope for his sake he can figure it out.

15

Gordon & Doc - How about a pay increase as your set-up man for new posts? :-)

16
jpax's picture

I wonder though about Milwaukee, because Z was the scouting director only, wasn't he? Not the player development or the GM?
I do think he has put more emphasis on the development side, but as in steering a larger ship, it takes a while to get even small changes in direction.
I do agree prospect development has been a big failure for the Mariners. Maybe (hopefully) getting better?

17

Very timely subject, G.
Yesterday I nearly posted a request for you or Doc to look at the dispersion chart of Ackley's rookie season hits vs. last season and this. Hits, vs ground outs, thank you. As part of that, I was hoping you could do a video comparison of his rookie swing vs last and this.
As I've said, my sense is that he was over-coached and he's lost his natural way. I'm convinced (until the data unconvinces me) that he was coached out of his natural roping-linedrive-to-RF swing to one that was aimed at "exploiting" the LF gap.
I may be wrong. Perhaps he's just adjusted (badly) to seeing different pitches. But I'm not sure where to locate the info and I know you guys are.
In 772 AA/AAA AB's he went for extra-bases once every 10 AB's. In 333 rookie AB's it was 1 per 11.5. In 651 AB's since, it has jumped to 1 per 18. He's lost his too-the-wall stroke.
In AA/AAA he walked 1 per 7 PA's. As a rook it was 1 per 9.5. Since, it has been 1 per 11.5.
Something happened. Even considering his BABIP collapse, he's lost iin the wilderness.
Right now he's mostly dead. You're exactly right.
I still think the thoroughbred is still hiding in him. I don't usually like demoting young/struggling "stud hosses." But pretty soon we're going to decide he's not just struggling and we do something to let him hit re-set. At that point you give Franklin or Miller the call-up. Or Romero.
Joe Charboneau was a raking 129 OPS+ guy as a Rookie-of-the-Year. After that he got exactly 200 MLB PA's at a OPS+ of less than 80.
Collapses happen, but I dn't think Ackley has lost it for ever. I think he's lost his own swing.
In golf, Mike Weir was a Major Champion and one of the best in the world. He lost his game when he tried to rework his swing to take his ball striking to another level. Ian Baker-Finch, ditto.
It often happens when you go against your natural move in order to "improve" it. It once happened to me as a golfer. Same reasons, too. It took me a long time to find myself again. I sense that is what Ackley needs: Not to tweak himself into improvement, but to un-tweak himself into his previous self.
it isn't easy.
I was sure he would find it early this year. Now I'm not.
BTW, you're quite right about Ryan. In 3 of the last 4 seasons (including this young one) he's OPS + 60 or less. 4 of the last 6, in fact.
That is his normal level. It's tme to admit it. '11 is an aberation at this point.
He's as good as it gets with the glove. I don't think his glove is packing his bat, though.
And our 1B has 1 extra-base hiit in 49 AB's this year. He had 49 in 427 2011 AB's. He's had 34 in 532 AB's since.
What is the cut-off point for punting on him, too.
moe

18

It isn't a lack of AAA time that created our flailing young bats (although at 26 and with 1500 PA's it is hard to regard Smoak as a kid anymore). And I think the issue is different with each of Ackley and Smoak and Montero. Z picked them all...and he's had a pretty good record. Blaming Z is silly.
Harang really surprised me, Doc. FB, FB, FB....and then another for good measure, but nothing good to hit. Cabrera just acted like Cabrera and beat him on good pitches. I'm not sure Harang really missed in a bad spot during the whole stint.
I was in doubt on the need for that trade......but if he keeps throwing like that I may try to erase those old posts.
There is something fundamentally weird about Smoak. He is primarily a scraggy hitter, a AAAA type guy. But then he finds a groove for 3 weeks and bashes. But those three-week streaks come far between.
He hit a fastball up last night for his knock. It was one that a major leaguer should sting. But a MLB 1B needs to punish a decent percentage of those mistakes. He hasn't/doesn't. There always had to be a magic point this year where his role becomes entirely reduced if he didn't hit. The ST hot streak probably extended that magic point.
April 17th isn't the point. May 1st may be.
When Saunders is back, your OF is set and Morales goes to 1B. Vs. RHP we will roll Raul out at DH unless Smoak shows life.
If he doesn't hit some taters in the next few days, then he must be a bench bat.
moe

19

Not Bard! Send him back to his college coach for a weekend.
Or fly the coach in.

20
RockiesJeff's picture

Moe, I agree completely. Whether a Weir or Baker-JennyFinch, golf and baseball are similar physically and mentally. Once in a generation you have a Ben Hogan who tinkers to get perfection. Just as once in a generation you have a Sam Snead who naturally was pure. It is easy to start searching for a cure and run into a brain cramp mentally. I know that first hand too. I grew up on the Golf Machine. I think you are familiar with that. I appreciate and love all the mechanics of a sport. I played a lot as a kid with Bobby Clampett. Perfect example. It is easy to start to overthink or over this or change that. Maybe Z ought to have Ackley sit down with Couples and get back to what he knows how to do obviously, hit the baseball naturally and enjoy it again.
Over-instruction can be a curse in baseball as golf.

21
RockiesJeff's picture

Ackley would be better if he met Bard in Phoenix! Colorado and baseball with weather are currently very frustrating!

22

Ackley hit .908 over 331 PAs at Tacoma. He had a .303 average and a .421 OBP and a .487 slugging.
Is there ANYTHING about the production of Miller or Franklin in the minors that suggest a better outcome than Ackley?
Montero's minors numbers were for the Yankees - but he managed a cumulative .843 AAA OPS over 232 games. He was stuck in AAA not because of his bat, but so he could work on borderline catching skills (or at least that perception).
Smoak was rushed by others - and everyone knows I've never been high on him - partially due to his unimpessive .788 OPS in his 128 AAA games.
As to why Seager and Saunders have had some success, (and I would throw Carp in there, too ... as I feel he was undone by injury more than ability).
I think it's a combination of the higher level the prospect, the MORE excessive the over-coaching. Seager was an afterthought, not a prime spec to expend lots of time on. I think his "natural" game matched up with the organization's latest "ideal" hitter paradigm also -- aggression and power.
In Saunders, I think they really had a guy who NEEDED to completely retool his swing in order to succeed in the majors, (and the club loves meddling, and he was able to accept the remolding). I think Carp was another (limited) success along the Saunders line, (though I don't think the remake was necessary, I think Carp had a personality and physical tools that he was able to adapt.
To date, I cannot think of ANY hitter the Ms have had in development (other than Seager) where I felt the Ms worked "with" the natural talents instead of concentrating time and effort on "flaws".
From 3,000 miles away, my diagnosis would be the Ms coaching mentality is one of being meddlesome and critical. Smoak and Ackley were both naturally patient hitters, looking for THEIR pitch. I think the club messed up both of them by viewing them as too passive.
Montero, i think the problem may simply be the defensive focus is negatively impacting his hitting, as I would think that like Seager, he more readily fits the Ms "ideal" more readily, and I haven't heard as much griping about swing changes as I have with most of the other Ms prospects.
I think Ackley/Smoak also fit the established norm of the longer they stay, the worse their problems get. The history is not one where hitters lose ground one year and then bounce back. The patttern for the last decade for those few hitters that got extrended years has been more toward quick start and slow regression. The evidence basically suggests the Ms not only have no idea how to improve hitters at the MLB level - but what they do have is an ability to make them worse, (supported by the many that left and went on to become good hitters elsewhere).
Of course, just because you suck at hitter development is not justification to quit trying. At some point you have to bring up the next guy and give it a go. But, honestly, when you've got THREE top 20 hitting specs and they are all hitting like Helen Keller, why would one expect success bringing up the "B" prospects? (other than Seager and Saunders - comparitively "B" prospects having had some modest success thus far).

24

Hey Jeff, very cool.
Homer Kelly may be a genius, but I get completely lost iwhen I read The Golf Machine. Give me Harvey Penick and Chuck Hogan (for the visualization stuff).
I've played with tons of WAY good golfers, including some guys who teed it up in some tour events......but never a guy like Clampett.
Sometimes the best swing thought is "swing hard," or "easy does it."
Be the ball, Dustin, be the ball.
moe

25

Carpy, wherefore art thou?
Man, how I miss him.
And btw, he has 6 AB's this season and 3 extra base hits. All in his 3 'fer 3 start (his first) tonight.
But we've got Smoak.
Good bet guys.
OK, I once promised I wouldn't lament the loss of Carp, which I saw as short sided and injury driven.
So I lied.
Wish we had him playing 1B.
moe
moe

26
RockiesJeff's picture

Moe, I still have a copy of the book but still wouldn't understand a word of it had not I been blessed with Ben Doyle to explain and apply as a kid. I met Kelly. He was on the range several times when I was attempting to hit balls. Not like reading a Penick or such. But reality is that you cannot go against physics and have proper mechanics. The key is to apply it for each individual and make it so they then repeat it in a simple manner under pressure. Ackley needs something like, remember Julius Boros' "Swing Easy, Hit Hard"?
I saw on very briefly (so I even hesitate to comment from afar) on ESPN the changes he made over the Winter and it looked too stiff to me, very unnatural. The kid has to be a very gifted natural hitter. There comes a point where he is going to have to stop listening to everyone and everything, clear out his head and do what he obviously has done in the past. I hope he can find it. Hard to have a #3 and then a #2 draft go bust.

27
EA's picture

Thing is, the guy who brought us Ackley, Smoak and Montero is also the guy who brought us Braun, Weeks and Fielder. Who to solve the problem if not him?
One thing to consider is Z didn't draft Smoak and Montero. They were trades. Z also traded Doug Fister for some peanuts and Cracker Jacks.
Perhaps an important distinction.

29

It's true that they didn't do a good job of developing hitters, but it is also true that they did a terrible job of drafting talented hitters between ARod and 2009.
Pretty much the only worthwhile guys who came through the system in that era were international signees, and that is always more of a crapshoot than a high draft pick.  The one decent drafted guy in over a decade was Adam Jones.
There were no Seagers plucked out of the third round in that era, and nobody the Ms drafted went on to star for anyone else either.
So you can't just blame the development staff.
I cheerfully concur that there were "red flags" with Smoak, but Ackley and Montero have minor-league records that guys with no talent simply don't achieve.
In other words, their record is non-flukish and something else is preventing them from translating it to MLB success, in my view.

31
bsr's picture

Title of Gordon's other post...seems like the most important overarching point here. M's are setting too high a degree of difficulty of running their organization.
M's equation:
Low payroll + soul crushing pitchers park (hopefully improved now) = no hitters develop.
M's under Z are apparently "bad at developing hitters, good at developing pitchers." Which pitchers? Mostly relievers. Some starters have had initial successes, none sustained yet. (Maybe Fister.) So actually they are pretty good at developing relievers, and unproven at developing starters.
Um, how hard is it to develop relievers? Are there any decent orgs that AREN'T good at this? It's the easiest thing to develop. You are talking about failed starters a lot of the time. Whereas, developing hitters is hard. There just aren't that many good hitters!
M's have been trying to fill too many spots by "developing" hitters. Youngest team ever* last year...what the M's are doing has not been normal. Some of these flopping youngsters shouldn't even be here in the first place (*cough* Smoak). If they had fewer spots to fill, they'd be able to fill them in a more natural way, with a higher amount of selectivity. Plus, everyone is trying too hard and micromanaging because there's no margin for error. Z has to make perfect 1st rd picks and trades and try unorthodox strategies like the defensive switcheroo w/ Ackley...Wedge has to do anything he can to try to get a ton of youngsters hitting NOW (was he "overcoaching" all the hitters to futility in Cleveland?)...young hitters are pressing because the lineup is below critical scoring mass...M's making it way too hard on themselves. We are expecting Z to spin magic with no budget like Billy Beane, a groundbreaking genius (played by Brad Pitt). Talk about an unrealistic standard! Critiquing Wedge or Z or LincStrong is instructive and necessary but also a bit of treating symptoms instead of curing the disease.
Good news is...can't wait to start spending that TV money :) I have a feeling M's development success rate will improve when everyone can relax...and when there are fewer development successes required in the first place.
I really do hope they stick with Ackley. The guy was so exciting to watch when he came up...it'd really hurt to see him reach his potential elsewhere. May be time to give up on the bold HOF 2B gambit and just let him be a good 1B or LF.

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