Smoak vs. MOTO
Difference between ACE and "#1 guy" or "Opening Day Starter"

I was actually working on something for Justin, but Doc's post is a great jumping off point for a discussion about offenses.  Sandy opines (correctly, IMO) that Smoak is NOT a traditional MOTO hitter and will never be.  A clip:

 

But, numerically, true MOO hitters, they drive in 25-30 runs in a month when they get hot, which helps offset the 10-12 when they aren't. Smoak drives in 17-18 *when he's on fire*.

In order for Smoak to become a real MOO hitter ... he would have to *NEVER* have a bad month.

Don't get me wrong. I think Nick Johnson is a valuable commodity to have. Yeah, it would be better if your .400 OBP guy could steal 20 for you. But, I'll take the .400 OBP and be very, very happy hitting Smoak #2 in the lineup, letting somebody else steal bases in front of him and letting somebody else drive him in.

 

First off, I don't think Smoak should hit second because he's slower than Molasses rolling uphill.  After many years of watching Ole and Gar station-to-station it and get stranded A LOT, I think slower guys should hit lower in the lineup - especially slower guys who can drive men in occasionally.  Otherwise they clog up the bases.  Franklin, Miller, Ackley... they can all take two bases on a single.  Smoak will have trouble getting one.  We need all the base-running benefits we can get, so I'd try to avoid messing that up.

That said, I agree that Smoak is not a 40 2B/30 HR guy.  It's almost certain at this point that he never will be.  But it also isn't required for him to be one in order to help us make a functional offense.

-------------------------

Definition of terms is important, first of all.  There aren't a lot of ACES around - guys who are unstoppable juggernauts to front a rotation.  Certainly not enough for every team in the league to have one.  Every team has a #1 starter for them, but that player would not be a #1 starter on some other teams in the league, just as one teams Opening Day Starter is another team's middle-of-the-rotation arm.

Just as there aren't a lot of aces in the league, there aren't a lot of MOTO crushers.  Miguel Cabreras and Joey Vottos don't grow on trees, but there are guys who can drive in runs, post an OPS+ figure of 120 or so, and do a decent job as a #5 hitter.

Smoak, if he continues on this track, is the latter.  He's no Votto (though I still maintain that Smoak in a small park would be thought of as a stud, because all those warning track shots would clear the wall, helping both his average and his slugging).

Is Smoak what we need?  Well, what we need are good hitters, so if he's a good hitter then yes.  He won't help us make a MOO/MOTO offense where the vast majority of damage is done 2-to-5, but there are various ways to make scoring happen.  The One-Man-Army approach of Gonzo for the D-Backs the year they won it behind a Pair of Aces. The traditional MOTO of Griffey/ Gar/ Bone (or the other variations we employed when we were good).

And then there's The Plateau Offense, where nobody's great, but there are enough good hitters to score runs and let your pitchers do the rest.

-------------------------

Look, Sandy's Braves have gone the last several years with a "no big holes, get 4 hitters between 100-to-125 OPS+, make it happen" offense.

Braves, # of hitters between 105-125 OPS+:

2009: 103 OPS+, 4.5 guys, 86 wins

2010: 107 OPS+ , 4.5* guys (plus another over 100), 91 wins

2011: 96 OPS+, 4 guys, 89 wins

2012: 97 OPS+, 4 guys, 94 wins

* Heyward had a 132 this year, but I'll throw him in as an outlier

In all those years they had a combined total of ONE guy with an OPS+ over 125 (Heyward). They had zero 100-RBI men in any of those years.  If a MOO bat is a requirement, they're failing and have been failing through a significant chunk of winning seasons.

This year they have McCann killing it and a surprise year from 28 year old Chris Johnson (who will likely come back to earth in the 2nd half) but it's basically the same offense.  Yes, the pitching staff carries that team.

You don't think if Walker and Hultzen and E-Ram all do what they can do next year and for the next half-decade that pitching won't be carrying this team behind the King?

-------------------------

*shrugs* Right now it looks like we should have the following bats in the 105-125 OPS+ range going forward:

Seager, Franklin, Smoak.

So we need another guy, and no holes. 

- Miller should fix the SS offense, and is likely to be in the 105-125 group as well going forward.  Even if he's not, though, he shouldn't be putting up a FIFTY TWO like Brendan Ryan.

- Saunders is frustrating, but his offense in CF isn't a death knell and the dude can still post a nice number like last year to get into this set of guys.

- I think we're holding Zunino back with this promotion and stunting his offensive growth, but he'll be a good catcher with offensive potential for sure.

So most of the actual HOLES should be patched (Zunino's gonna hit - famous last words, right?). Even if none of those guys become consistent plus hitters they shouldn't be anchors.  So we just need one corner player as a plus out of the rest of the OF and DH.

I would take this offense again next year, if I could get it.  Morales and Morse with this infield?  Yes, I would take that, along with expected pitching upgrades, and call it good.  Maybe that's settling, and it's certainly not getting me a straw that stirs the drink, but I would take a Nick Johnson or two for this offense (and as Grizz says, that's actually my comp for Choi so we have another working his way up behind Smoak when we don't want to pay Justin for that).

This team, 1-5, is starting to click.  If Ackley EVER remembers that he's allowed to hit it to LF and CF, and Zunino puts wood on ball (or even just decides to walk), the bottom of the order won't be a wasteland either.

-------------------------

Just watch the second-half offense and see what happens.  Raul is gonna get tired.  He has to, right?  But the kids will get a long chunk of time to show if the early returns are real, and if we can cobble a Plateau Offense instead of a MOO offense that can score some runs with a different 3 hitters doing damage every game instead of the same three having to carry the burden.

IMO, Justin is not up to carrying this or any offense on a regular basis, but he can do it for a few games here and there.  Franklin is already proving he has the attitude and bat to do that as well, and Seager's been standing on top of that hill for two years now.

Get me Morales back (or another similar batter) and maybe one more and we'll see if we can put together a decent enough offense 1-to-9 to score runs while we wait for breakouts.  If Zunino or Ackley live up to their talent, or Franklin becomes Jeter, or Montero remembers he's supposed to hit like Country Breakfast, then while we won't have a MOTO stuffed with crushers we'll be very dangerous.

And that should be all a King / Kuma / E-Ram / Walker / Hultzen rotation needs... right?

~G

Blog: 

Comments

1
Jonw's picture

The last several hundred at bats have been encouraging, that is for sure. But he has burned the Mariners before. Wherever he is put in the batting order, it would be nice if there was a high OBP guy in front of him. It might be my imagination but opposing teams seem to shift most dramatically with Smoak. Having a guy in front of him that is one base 38 or 40% of the time sure would help him combat that shift. I would like to see him hit behind Franklin, but that doesn't seem to work because I don't think Smoak should hit third, and I don't think Franklin should hit lower than 6th.
Maybe during the offseason the Mariners could actually acquire a high OBP outfielder that would fit in the lineup right in front of Smoak. It sure would be nice to take the (hopeful) gains of the second half of the year and build on them instead of hoping and dreaming that every one of our prospects and discarded veterans perform to their upper expectations.

2

Batted 3rd and 4th on teams that needed him to, but a lot of 5th and 6th as well. Isn't he much more the right comp than Teixeira? Less doubles and Avg., in a pitching era where offensive #'s are lower too, but I guess the HR could be higher too. Maybe it's more of how I think of Tex as more a MOTO than I do Olerud, closer inspection has them both about equal offensively (Ole 129 OPS+, Tex 130) and yet Tex hasn't had his end of career down years. Not that Olerud did, retiring after a 106 OPS+ in Boston at 36. His 2nd real down year was all it took. At the beginning, though, 78 PA in 1990 before 6th in the order. His 2nd full year was almost entirely at 4th/5th AFTER having lower pressure AB for the majority of his 1st full year. I think his pedigree was a bit better, but it could be argued he was rushed up as well.
Teixeira was mostly 5th/6th/7th his first year, 4th/5th his 2nd but didn't seem to be rushed much if at all. The SLG in the .400's for Olerud vs .500's for Tex is I think the big reason I've been looking more at Ole than Tex for awhile now as a player type. Ok, maybe I'm also thinking he should just be a lefty and give up RH hitting...
I'd like to see Smoak mostly hitting 5th/6th/7th, but that requires better MOTO options in coming years.

3

Then it would actually be great to have him hitting 3rd. I don't like making Smoak and Seager the 3-4 hitters either, though.  Good to see ya, btw - swing by any time. :)
What does a perfect world look like? #GoStanton
But since we live in a non-perfect world, I'd say something like:
1) LH Miller
2) SH Franklin (solidifying his Jeter-ness)
3) LH Seager (man I hate to do this to him but it's all we got)
4) RH SOMEBODY (though a SH like Morales is okay even though he's a bad RH)
5) XBH Masher of some stripe (I guess Morse if he's back)
6) LH Saunders (our best base-stealer, but not the OBP threat you want)
7) SH Smoak
8) RH Zunino 
9) LH Ackley (for the base-paths speed and theoretical OBP)
I don't like the pressure it puts on the kids to perform any more than you do, Jon, but it really does look like that's what we're gonna do.  Buncha kids up top, a couple of vets in the middle, and another swath of kids at the bottom.  Adding in Choo for a HUGE chunk of change is unlikely, and he's not RH (in fact is abominable against LHP) but that OBP would be there and he can steal 20 bags and run the bases. He'd fit nicely in front of Smoak if we had to hit Smoak #5.
I just can't see us going with a completely lefty MOTO, and essentially the first 6 that way (Franklin has a lefty power stroke even though he's improving from the RH side).  We've gotta add a righty (or keep Morse) don't we?
Maybe switch-hitting Beltran on a 2 year deal, if we want to take a risk that he doesn't hit the age wall and is gonna have a Raul-esque end to his career.  Or Corey Hart, since Z drafted him originally anyway - but he'll be coming off knee surgery and so unlikely to either run or play much outfield.
Dunno, man - I'd like a couple of OBP guys but we might have to get em internally and keep Pollyanna-ing our production expectations.
~G

4

Agree wholeheartedly, both with the spirit and letter of the Law laid down herein...
For sure we'd all love to have a Prince Fielder-style wrecking machine at 1B.  But there are a lot of good teams -- notably the Oakland A's and Atlanta Braves, LOL -- who contend with platoons at first.
Did you know, by the way, that there were only five (5) first basemen in baseball, whose OPS+ were above 129?  LINK

5

A 1B platoon would be just ducky. A RH hitting CIF, with some pop, would be a good find. I would be quite fine with Morse in RF again next year, too.

6

...without talking too much about proprietary information, I can tell you that Smoak looks to me like a top 25 in the AL hitter right now. That's all I can say...but I'm actually bullish on Smoak if he continues hitting the way he has been the last month or two.

8

I'm just saying Smoak's been hitting well for a while and it just hasn't been showing up in the box score...it's starting to show up now.

9

I'm hopeful, or is it some near synonym...An early Miller-Franklin-Smoak brought the thought into my head that I can handle that for some years. This Smoak looks different somehow from the one we acquired, but I am not great at defining the differences. Maybe he's much the same as the start of 2011 which somehow seems so much longer ago than 26 months. Somehow that .315 .413 .576 through 26 games (9 dbl, 5 hr) has remained only a tease of what could be even now. In 15 games since he got called back up, it's .308 .390 .577 (2dbl, 4 hr) not including his 3 for 4 with a pair of doubles and a BB tonight. Back then I thought that there could be even more in the tank, but I've been reminded, frequently, that consistency is a make or break key to that. He's now had these steaks at the beginning, middle and end of seasons though. Can't accurately call it a September thing anymore.

10

In terms of proprietary info, no doubt the velocity on Smoak's batted balls is way up, and it's been clear from the accleration that he's been putting into the strike zone.  The first double on Monday night, was off Holt's right knee, and it was just too hot to handle.  Then the 3-iron shot to center field got to the wall in Josh Hamilton time.
Undoubtedly, Matty is talking about the BABIP velo.  The eye confirms.
He needed some time to get that new slo-mo swing grooved in, and as he gains in comfort, he is in a position to grow in his aggressiveness.
...........
The other thing that tends to be MLB(TM) proprietary is strike zone coverage, and tonight Smoak looked excellent against the inside fastball that has been his bete noir.  He was clearing his hands neatly, ready to turn on the jam pitch in plenty of time, and holding up when it was too far inside.
............
Whether we are talking about a franchise hitter, sustaining those kind of results against the shift he faces, that's another subject, but he definitely is showing the seismo's of a major plateau leap.   Hope that it jells.
We advised to keep an eye slideways, as to whether Smoak might have a really big month of July, and Monday night there he was.  A Ken Griffey Jr. evening. 
Big fun :- )

11
blissedj's picture

Yes. M's please go get some kind of catcher before July is done and let Zunino work on his bat in Tacoma. Please? You're going to ruin this guy, or at least stunt his growth for several years. Then we get to pay top dollar when he jells, or lose him to FA.

12

 
I do agree with most contributors here that Justin will never become a star first baseman like Teixeira or Prince Fielder -- he doesn't have the 70-80 hit tool or 70-80 power tool required to be a special big league hitter (that Miguel Cabrera and prime Albert Pujols had both is why they are Hall of Famers). By the way, if you want to see an utterly astounding gif of Miguel Cabrera's plate coverage skills, check out this fangraphs post. There is a similar post of Yu Darvish pitch movement that is equally spell binding.
 
The performance statistics back this up.  If you want to find comparables for Justin Smoak using statistics, you have to key in on three traits: a high walk (~12%), a moderate to high strikeout rate (~20%), and only moderate power (ISO 0.15-0.20).  There are no stars with these component performances at first base.  If you have moderate power but are the type of athlete that gets put at 1B, you have have to run a walk rate of > 10% with a BB:K ratio of about one (see John Olerud, Kent Krbek, Todd Helton (adjust ISO down for home park), John Kruk, Alvin Davis).  If you want to strike out 20-25% of the time, you need huge power  (Ryan Howard, Mark McGwire, Jim Thome template).
 

But you don't have to be a star to be a valuable member of the M's.  I'm going out on a 'limb' to project that Justin Smoak current aggregate statistical performance is who he will be for the next three years, roughly a 125 OPS+ player with a slightly better than average glove at first base.  Nothing special, but not something you should be in a hurry to replace.
 

 

13

1. We continue to get Kyle Seager's production at third.
2. We get 15+ home run power from Franklin at second base, and 10+ from Miller at shortstop.
3. We eventually get 20+ home run power (perhaps more) from Zunino behind the plate.
4. We get good power and production from the DH slot (i.e., Morales level, whether it's Morales or not).
5. Saunders and Ackley figure it out and supply moderate power in CF and LF.
6. We get a bona fide hitter with a power bat in RF. For all he has done, Raul isn't going to keep being Babe Ruth. We need to replace next year what he has done this year.
It may take until 2015 to get all this in place and hitting on all cylinders. Just like Ackley and Smoak struggled after initially hitting well, so might Franklin and Miller at some point.
But I'm increasingly of the opinion that we're edging closer to that point Sandy talks about, where adding an aircraft carrier (in RF) makes sense. We have not yet seen sustained production to suggest this, but things COULD coalesce rather quickly with this group. Honestly, with Smoak seeming to reach at least his minimum potential, all it will take is Ackley doing the same. Smoak's progress I big for me. It gives me hope that Ackley could do the same. And that would go a LONG way towards redeeming Zduriencik's plan.
My eyes are starting to turn from position players, where we may be in better shape than it looked a few short weeks ago, to the pitching staff, where we have a "First Wave" ready to reach the big club and we need a "Second Wave" in the bullpen to match our influx of quality infielders.

14
OBF's picture

Seems like he would fit great as our RF... I wonder how much he would cost... He is unfortunately quickly making himself look like the best FA hitter available.... Maybe we could sell him on the idea of unfinished business here in Seattle? :)
Nelson Cruz is getting older, but he could also be a factor in RF for us, although I wonder how his aging power would do outside of power friendly Texas, and he probably wont be cheap either.
I think I am getting to the point, though, where I would much rather keep all our youngin's for ourself, and try to buy a good RF instead of trading Walker, Franklin, etc. for Stanton and just patching one hole by making others....
QO to Morales and Morse (keeping at least one for DH, both would be fine) and 5yr/$90mil for Choo (would that do it?) and call it an offseason :)
Or I could just enjoy the present and let the future worry about itself, but then I wouldn't be able to call myself a true baseball fanatic ;)

15

Nick Castellanos this year in AAA:
Overall .288/.363/.462/.825
versus RH .278/.338/.452/.790
versus LH .338/.463/.508/.971
There's a platoon split there, but in the direction the Ms need it!
For another hope - Jesus Montero in AAA before the trade to the Ms
Overall .289/.353/.517/.870
versus RH .292/.345/.511/.856
versus LH .284/.372/.530/.902
If he could get beyond his current issues and hit like this, he'd be just what we need. JackZ wasn't very far wrong trying to get him.

16

Rather than use "aircraft carrier" (which I prefer for pitchers - they're the ones who "launch" "strikes"), let's use "boomer" for the most dangerous hitters - after all, there are only two types of ships, submarines and targets, right?! ;-)
**** using career stats ****
Player A Overall .316/.417/.547/.964
Player A versus RH .324/.429/.569/.998
Player A versus LH .300/.391/.500/.891
Player B Overall .267/.349/.538/.888
Player B versus RH .266/.347/.531/.878
Player B versus LH .272/.357/.560/.917
Player C Overall .290/.343/.487/.830
Player C versus RH .284/.337/.475/.812
Player C versus LH .303/.358/.575/.873
Player D Overall .304/.372/.460/.832
Player D versus RH .302/.361/.458/.819
Player D versus LH .311/.400/.462/.862
Player E Overall .287/.385/.463/.848
Player E versus RH .309/.408/.521/.929
Player E versus LH .239/.334/.338/.672
Player F Overall .265/.306/.366/.671
Player F versus RH .262/.299/.358/.657
Player F versus LH .272/.327/.389/.716
Now, what does all this show us? Well, Player A is my definition of a "boomer" hitter. Very small platoon split and elite numbers at all points. This player also Ks at ~18% of his PAs and walks in about 14%. This guy is eventually going to the Hall of Fame if he keeps this up; but he hits home runs every 23 PAs - about once every 4 to 5 games.
Player B appears to be just slightly below player A in all facets. He also Ks in 28% of his PAs. But he homers in every 17 PAs -- about once every 3 to 4 games. Although he gets on base less, his hits cause similar damage. Another "boomer".
Player C is another step down, not a "boomer", but maybe an elite hitter. Ks in 22% of his PAs, with a HR every 23 PAs - almost identical to player A there, but doesn't do quite the damage.
Player D looks comparable to Player C, but is in fact very different, although still in the elite class. He Ks in less than 9% of his PAs, and homers every 44 PAs -- about once every 9 or 10 games. But he obviously does a lot of damage with doubles and holds up his end of things. Nick Franklin should be taking notes on this guy.
Player E has a very similar overall line to players C and D, but has a massive platoon split. Against RH pitchers, he's up with players A & B, but against LH, he's comparable to Player F, who is a very consistent, but "light" hitter.
So who are they?
Player A is Joey Votto, probably the most consistent hitter other than Miguel Cabrera currently playing.
Player B is Giancarlo Stanton, arguably the most powerful hitter currently playing.
Player C is Michael Morse, who, if he could stay healthy, would rank as an elite hitter with a minimal platoon split.
Player D is Dustin Pedroia, who proves you don't have to homer to be an elite hitter.
Player E is, of course, the subject of the exercise - Shin Soo Choo. A very good hitter with a massive platoon split.
Player F, who consistently hit against all pitchers about what Choo does against LHs - the recently retired Jack Wilson.
My conclusion: Keeping Morse healthy would be far better than signing Choo. The Ms need offense against LHs somewhere in the lineup, as most of the other good hitters are LH, or as switch-hitters hit better from the left side.
Second conclusion: If someone like Stanton or Votto ever is available the Ms need to jump at the chance.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.