Here's an alternative scenario to save GMZ, based on one key assumption: GMZ still has enough juice with Howard and Chuck to fire Wedge now. Given that assumption, here are the steps:
1) Fire Wedge now. Install any interim manager that will use platoons and doesn't favor over-the-hill vets over younger players. By clearing the air of Wedge's presence, which is rapidly becoming oppressive & a negative factor, and by putting players in the best position to succeed, the M's increase their chances to win games.
2) Team turns around shortly thereafter, no longer embarrasing itself and winning the occasional series. Morse, M Saunders, Maurer, and Ackley are a key part of that turn-around.
3) GMZ signs Morse to 2-3 year extension, thereby providing one MOTO bat going into the future & negating the boo-birds on the Jaso trade.
4) Ackley, the most important of the 3 under-performing position prospects, continues his turn-around and finally becomes the major factor he was supposed to be all along. Seager continues to shine, as does M Saunders. This gives GMZ 3 completely home-developed, successful position players to point to. The key position player prospects that continue to under-perform are Smoak and Montero - acquired from other organizations. Replacements for Smoak and Montero are already in the organization: Morse at 1B and Zunino at catcher, who continues to develop well. Montero slotted for back-up catcher and part-time DH in 2014 to give him more time to develop. Smoak written off.
5) In addition to Maurer, several other young pitchers develop well, particularly Hultzen & Walker. E-Ram returning by mid-June would be a big assist, or perhaps Beavan actually masters a slider or a split finger . Continuing success developing pitchers is critical to GMZ's chances of retaining his job.
6) At the trade deadline, GMZ hits a home run to get an all-star OFer in the form of a current all-star such as Stanton, or a future all star, such as Taveras. Now GMZ has provided 4 core infielders for future (Seager, Ackley, Miller & Morse), 2 core outfielders (Saunders & new acquisition), and catcher (Zunino).
It's still a long-shot that GMZ can save his job at this point. But I think it is more likely if he can jettison Wedge and his baggage while making the additional moves to cement a strong 2014 line-up.
With all this talk about firing Wedge after yet another debacle against the dominating, unbeatable Astros, I think you guys are over-estimating the security Jack has.
Jack (11/22/08-present) has been the same amount of time as Bill Bavasi was (11/7/03 to 6/1/08), give or take 6 weeks.
Bavasi had his error (Melvin, who got much better with experience but had zilch at the time) and Jack had Wak.
Both went with a stabilizing manager from Cleveland for round 2. Grover actually was doing quite well his last season, but then the club severed ties with him, gave the job to an interim coach with no HC experience, and then Bavasi was gone within the year.
That's the Raul Replacement Method right there.
If we were to drop Wedge and move to Raul I think Jack is packing his bags this offseason - maybe before.
Even if you “credit” Bavasi with the entire (abominable) 2008 season, here’s the record of the Mariners under his watch: 452-520, a .465 winning percentage. Think you should job Bavasi even more and take away his “inheritance” year of 2003 when the team was staffed with Gillick players? Fine, that’s 359-451, a .443 percentage.
How’s Zduriencik? 296-375, a .441 mark. Take away his inheritance year and it drops to 211-298, or .415.
Jack needs this year to go much, much better. Without some wins this season his head is likely in a bucket, and no longer attached to his neck.
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What’s he gonna say if we can’t get wins this year? Guti, Morse and Morales are all gone after the season, and Joe Saunders can be as well. That seems great from a freed-up salary perspective, but we’ve gotten exactly zero quality free agents to take our money in the last 8 years. Either we’re too stingy or they believe we are infected with plague – maybe both.
We have no MOTO on the books for 2014, no All-Star youngsters on this squad, and no identifiable plan to get them except “via internal promotion or trade” which has worked out not-at-all in the last half-decade and beyond.
Zduriencik can’t fire Wedge because he has to show his bosses that there’s some sort of workable plan - some way to deploy all this youth that can counter the absolute lack of production we’ve received from it. Somebody Jack acquired either in the draft or in trade is going to have to carry this team. Felix was the only diamond he was given in the pile of manure that was the 2008 Mariners.
5 years later, Felix is still the only diamond on this team. Iwakuma looks great, and that goes nicely on Jack's resume, but Iwakuma is 32 years old. Maybe he’s got 5 more years in him but right now he’s a short-term solution. Guti’s an injury bust, the Fister trade was a debacle, the highly touted minor leaguers haven’t done squat.
Yes, Jack can blame the manager for not making the kids better, but he’s already hung one manager from the mizzen mast. That tactic doesn’t save face any more (or at least only works for Howie and Chuck, who have overseen the firing of 7 managers in 7 years at one point, right?). Zduriencik needs this team to turn things around and he needs them to do it without gunning down half the 25-man and the entire coaching staff.
He doesn’t have that kind of ammunition with his bosses any more. Either Wedge and Jack both go (and that may still happen) or Sarge is here the rest of the year.
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If the team rights itself, funnily enough, Jack may have enough capital to fire Wedge. "See how we're doing now? We'd be even better with a different manager, but the kids are coming around..." Without positive results from the assembled team, though, I don't think Jack gets to make the call on Wedge. We already fired one manager and the results haven't changed, so maybe the problem with the team is higher on the food chain. Howard and Chuck have always wielded the axe, and never at themselves. They're the ones on the throne giving orders and delegating responsibility for the messes of this team. This will be Jack's mess unless the kids start producting.
I still think if we're gonna fire Zduriencik that we do it after the draft and before the trade deadline (or at least refuse to allow Jack to make the trades of his young talent at the deadline). The next GM will want a full pantry of club-controlled assets to work with, and Jack has certainly provided that.
So if the Ms are in the basement in June then Jack had better enjoy his last draft for us, IMO - and make it a good one. And then we'll have to look for a GM who can turn all this golden fleece into victories and not just top-5-Farm list appearances.
~G
Comments
The firing of a manager in-season is typically based on an INTENT to create a new starting point for a clubhouse.
When is firing a manager in-season a good idea? Precisely when you believe talent is underperforming and you have no faith the current manager can change that dynamic.
In 2004 the Astros had Jimy Williams at the helm and had finished 2nd the previous two seasons.
They had Clemens, Pettite and Oswalt starting with the killer Bs ... (Bags, Berkman and Biggio)
After 72 games they were 38-34 and added Beltran (in his prime).
After 88 games, they were 44-44 ... in 5th place, 10.5 games back.
They fired Williams and replaced him with Phil Garner. Mind you, in 11 seasons of managing before 2004, Garner had exactly one winning season, (his first as a manager with Milwaukee in 1992).
But, in 2004 ... Garner came in and Houston would go 48-26 the rest of the way, with 92 wins and good enough for 2nd place (and the WC).
Garner was not a particularly good manager. He was simply a change of scenery to change the clubhouse chemistry.
THAT is precisely what the Mariners seem to need at the moment.
Mind you, I've had issues with Wedge from day one. I think he is entitled-veteran-centric and while he did not create the Ms problems with player development, he certainly hasn't shown any signs of fixing them.
I continue to believe the Ms problems in 2013 are heavily skewed toward the pitching side ... and that while everyone is fixated on the cool bats, I think they are (and will) come around.
But, while I do not put full blame on Wedge for the 81 ERA+ ... I think he is culpable for a significant part of the problem. As Manager, it was HIS responsibility to have his catchers and pitchers work enough with each other in the month of March to make them ready for April. Saunders complained about not working with Montero ... which *I* view as throwing Wedge under the bus, not Montero.
But, if the club REALLY only has 81 ERA+ talent ... no manager on Earth can make this team win.
So ... question #1 ... is the Mariner 2013 pitching staff REALLY only an 81 ERA+ group of talent?
Question #2 ... if not ... then why are they performing at that level?
Me? I can accept the 90 OPS+ in April as growing pains and injuries.
I have much greater difficulty accepting an 81 team ERA+.
It's funny..."In Z We Trust"...and he FEELS like a good GM w/ the right process...but when you put the cold hard numbers down, YIKES. Can we really say Z's results in his first rodeo as GM have been even average? If you adjust for the low payroll hamstringing him...still nothing impressive looked at in aggregate. I'm starting to think we won't miss him if he's cut loose. Even the draft, where he should have the best results (and where cheap ownership is not hindering him at all)...what has he really accomplished? It's weird to think about, but there it is.
Excellent post. I was all in on "In Z we trust", but 2 things have shaken my support of him:
1) Choice of Wedge after Wak. I get that the clubhouse dynamic called for a firm hand and no-nonsense leader to replace Wak, but... Wedge's shortcomings have become a serious obstacle to establishing a winning team. Striking out twice in the manager sweepstakes is a serious mark against GMZ. Why should we trust him to get it right the third time?
2) Roster construction 2013 - several mistakes that have been exposed by the injury bug: no long man in the pen out of ST despite starting a rookie and second year man; relying on Guti as full-time CF with one-dimensional 4th and 5th OFers behind him. Putting the team in a position to have to rely on Raul was simply a bad decision. How do we know he can improve at roster construction in the future?
a) I think Zduriencik is great at talent evaluation...he proved it in Milwaukee, and he's got a list of great talents here in Seattle, including deals that we all still admire regarding the moving of extra parts to acquire org depth that haad significant value.
b) I think Z is an above average salesman. We came very close to landing two top notch free agents to a bad hitter's environment with a bad team...most GMs can't sell our situation to big name FAs that like the limelight...but Z almost got us Fielder and Hamilton.
c) I think Z has a stars and scrubs mindset that would play well if he could just get other clubs to pull the trigger on his 4 for 1 and 6 for 1 trade offers. We almost had Justin Upton (and it would have been painfully expensive...but he'd be helping us a LOT right about now).
but...
I think Z is too aggressive with player positioning (puts guys in very challenging roles that they struggle with), too fixated on acquiring the hard-to-get assets and not focused enough on getting what he can easily acquire to improve the club and a bit of a good-ole-boy when it comes to the believe in "veteran presence".
I also think Z is a bit on the short side when ti comes to assembling a 25-man roster that is complete. He doesn't seem to have a clear series of plans and fallbacks the way that Beane or Cashman do. He moves from one good idea to the next...getting pieces out of order and hoping things fit together if he has to cram those pieces into the puzzle with a mallot to make them fit.
And finally, I think he overvalues his own talent...hanging onto guys he doesn't really need to keep...he'll make an aggressive talent-loaded play for that "one big get"...but he won't offer those guys in even slightly lower-caliber deals. That feels good since Bavasi took his talent to the street corner in their finest revealing clothing and overwraught makeup and sold them to the lowest bidder like a drunken pimp...but it's bad to go to the other extreme too.
You know, I'm really not overly upset with where the team is at right now. While I don't think Z is the greatest when it comes to roster construction, I think the main thing we're seeing with this team is the growing pains and struggles of young players, some of whom will make it and become solid major league players (Ackley and maybe Montero) and some who will likely fail (Smoak and maybe Montero). Seager is solid, Saunders is solid.
The first time the Mariners put a team together that had a solid nucleus and was pretty good for a number of years was in the mid-90's. At the core of that team were 3 more or less transcendent offensive players in Griffey, AROD, and Edgar, - guys that were just on a different level as players than everyone else. This time around, the young core that Z has put together doesn't have anyone like that. We have Felix on the pitching side, but with our offensive players, the mold this time around is more along the lines of solid major league player to slightly above (in the best case scenario). My point is, I don't think it's unusual for guys like this to struggle a bit before settling in and having nice major league careers. Hopefully, Ackley is turning the corner right now.
One change that I think needs to happen fairly quickly is for Montero to not catch ever again. In my view, they should send him to AAA to learn how to play first base. I do not like right-handed batting first basemen at all, but I don't see that they have a choice. Even if he is mostly a DH, he needs some kind of position for inter-league games. Or, they could trade him, which I could definitely see happening.
I think Smoak has until the end of May. That sounds about right. Then it's back to AAA for him, or maybe to another team.
Aside from Zunino, we have three other potential major league hitters in Miller, Franklin, and Romero. I would hope that they have a plan in mind for phasing these guys into the major leagues. I assume they don't want all of these guys trying to establish themselves on the 25-man at the same time. So, hopefully, we see Franklin and Zunino in the next couple of months, and then Romero and Miller in September.