Draft Prep: History
Jack's Drafts with the Ms
There's been a lot of talk this week about Jack's failures in the offseason.  I agree with some and disagree with others, but as the Ms wallow in their annual May losing streak and throw away a lot of the goodwill we have for em, I figured we should talk about where we've been.  And since the draft is Jack's wheelhouse and we have another one coming in a coupla weeks, we might as well go there.
 
First, let's talk about what came out of the Bavasi drafts (2004-2008). Short answer: Michael Saunders.
 
Longer answer: I'm serious, Saunders is it for hitters.  We also got a coupla pitchers.
 
2004: drafted Tui, Rob Johnson, Mark Lowe, Saunders, and Arencibia (but didn't sign him). Only Saunders has made any positive impact.
2005: Clement (URGH!!), Lance Lynn (again, didn't sign him). 
2006: Morrow, Tillman, Fister, Adcock (who? exactly).
2007: Aumont, Shawn Kelley
2008: LaFromboise, Maurer
 
The 2006 draft was the cream of the crop.  Morrow, Tillman and Fister is a nice haul.  None of them are still here (and 2 of those 3 trades were on Zduriencik's watch). Our mis-use of Morrow from 2006-2008 didn't help him, but even so he's an inconsistent pitcher with a great arm but without great years (save one).  Ditto Tillman.  The best pitcher ever drafted by Bavasi was Fister. That's a trade that continues to hurt me, Jack.  Why you gotta do me like that?
 
But otherwise, the only - ONLY - kind of impact performers from the Bavasi days have been Saunders, Fister and Morrow. 3 guys in 5 drafts is saaaad.
 
That's what Jack had to turn around: the utter failure of the farm to provide anything of value to the big club.  So let's compare Jack's drafts, shall we?
 
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2009: 
- Ackley, who has already provided more WAR than all but two of Bavasi's picks while learning a glove positon.
- Seager, a third baseman with a pure doubles stroke and that gritty dirt-dog attitude we love (when it's accompanied by actual talent, as it is with Kyle)
- Franklin, a top 50 prospect who is turning on the afterburners in AAA at 22. Also a glove-positioner.
- Brian Moran, a lefty reliever with 10K/9 career, and an almost 5:1 control ratio.  If not for Perez, we'd already be seeing him in the bigs. I think he should be up instead of Luetge, but that'll come.
 
I won't lie, I liked Seager in this draft as an Adam Kennedy type. He's hitting like a Longoria-type right now.  Even if that doesn't last, his production should well exceed the Kennedys of the world.  Ackley, OTOH, has been a conundrum. He's lost at the plate, unable to hit for either average or power.  That's not a problem with the pick - we all know Ackley can hit better than this. Our coaches are failing him, so I still expect him to pan out.  But Franklin is gunning for his job if he doesn't. Several good picks in this draft.
 
2010:
- Walker, one of the best pitching prospects in the game, killing AA at the moment.
- Stanek (didn't sign, will be a top 15 pick this draft, and oh well.  He might be ours again shortly. Jack was right about his talent regardless)
- Paxton, lots of Ks, uncomfortable # of walks, too many hits this year. Still a top pitching prospect.
- Pryor, who demolished the minors and was pitching well in the bigs.  Future closer type, if he recovers well from his arm injury.
- Romero, clubbing IF who's been shifted to the OF to try to keep him with the Mariners in the future. That's how much they like him.
- couple of relievers and teen starters that are still working their way through the minors.
 
Very good draft, would have been absolutely great if Stanek had signed.  There are still some lower level players like Landazuri and Shipers trying to get it together, but the top pitching is absolutely there. If Paxton could cut his hits back to where they've always been, or Walker can sustain some low-walk starts, maybe one of them can come up to help the Ms soon as well.  Wishing Pryor some health luck as well.
 
2011: 
- Hultzen, another TPP (Top Pitching Prospect) and would already be in the bigs if not for an injury last month compounding the one in ST.
- Miller, an offensive SS with the whole package at the plate. Just got promoted to AAA.
- Carter Capps, a reliever who throws high-90s and is already in the bigs.
 
I thought the 2011 draft was our weakest of Jack's tenure.  We drafted a lot of bat-first guys who needed to stay at glove positions to be impact players, and only Miller has been able to do that.  Paolini is still interesting but he's an OF/DH now so that takes some of the shine off.  He got kicked off of 1B because Ji-Man Choi (free agent signed by Zduriencik prior to '10) kicked him off the position and Choi is excelling (2nd in BA and OPS, 1:1 batting eye).  I'm okay with that outcome. These three players all are looking like plus pros, though.
 
2012:
- Zunino, who has rocketed up prospect lists even as he's struggled with Ks. He's learning. Be patient. He does seem like he is the clubber I doubted he would be.
- Pike, lefty teen pitcher who will likely make some top-100 lists after this year.
- Kivlehan is growing exponentially, hitting .300 in the MWL and having cut his Ks in half from last year. So raw, and might be so good. Lots still to be done.
- DeCarlo and Lopes both started off well last year.  DeCarlo hasn't got started yet this year, and Lopes is struggling as a teen in the MWL. Most do.
- Taylor, Henry and Pizzano are showing off sweet swings as college kids making their mark in the low minors.
- Wood and some other relievers are doing well in early action
 
It's harder to judge 2012 with so little data, but so far the first pick still looks like a very good one (people seem to think me comparing Zunino to Charles Johnson is a slam... if I'd wanted to slam him I'd compare him to Clement). He has more pop than I believed he would. Just don't rush him.  And it was a YOUNG draft, for the most part, so a lot of the payoff from this draft won't be seen for a few more years.  Still looks good from here.
 
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Jack doesn't seem to have too many over-riding preferences.  He went with a bunch of hitters in '09, swapped to a raft of pitchers in '10, went college in '11 and young in '12.  So I guess his preference is to get good players wherever they might be found.  He gets plus relievers out of every draft so that the pen doesn't need much outside assistance and should be self-sustaining.
 
Is there a weakness in player development?  If so, it's not really showing up in the minor league system.  Seager and Romero and Franklin and Miller all have improved their games and diminished their weaknesses since being drafted, certainly at the plate.  The extended failures of guys like Ackley and Montero didn't happen in the minors, they happened on the big-league club.  Our relievers that have made the bigs have all been pretty quality, and the rotation members seem to get better as they go as well.  Is Maurer's failure not to get rocked on the minor-league coaches, or on the big-league ones?
 
I have to say, when you take in how many players have been drafted highly and are still thought of highly, we haven't had too many breakdowns on the way to the bigs.  Steve Baron, I suppose, but that was always taking a flier on a guy with ML backstop skills and no hitting talent at all.  I hated the pick but it was asking a lot to rework his swing a couple of times on the off-chance that he could be a pro hitter.  Poythress maybe, but he only had one recognized skill in college (power) so trying to get him the rest has been his undoing.
 
The baseball draft isn't like other drafts - that's why there are 40 rounds of it.  The odds of any one pick working out are small, especially outside of the first couple of rounds.  You want to hit on one of your first 2 picks every year, and then grab maybe one other significant player and a roleplayer or two out of the rest.  We're doing that and more every single year.
 
The farm is working. It's working very well.  If the fruit is rotting once it's plucked... I'd say it's time to look at what the big-league instructors are doing for their talent, since players like Ackley came up dominating and THEN fell off the map.  How are they getting twisted around once the promotion happens? Why can't they adjust back to the league? Why do they have to go outside the org for useful (or non-useful-but-still-used) advice?
 
Looking at the drafts and what they're providing makes me more concerned about the ability of the people in charge to use all this raw material to its utmost.  That's a problem.
 
~G
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Comments

1
IcebreakerX's picture

Do the M's move player positions more, less or about average as an organization. The main thing you notice is a string of moving players, including Ackley, Seager, Romero, Montero, etc. Part of it has to do with talent density, but part of it also seems like it's being greedy with what they can get out of a prospect.

2
GLS's picture

I wouldn't worry about it too much. Most teams move guys around in the minors.

3

The Ms definitely aren't against moving a player's position, but part of that is because they're starting said player off at harder positions and then relegating them back to easier ones.  Ackley's the only one who's stayed on a harder position.  Seager was a 2B/3B in college and though he played far more 2nd, it was thought he might not stay there full time.  He'd have been fine there IMO but yes, we slid him down the scale to 3rd.  Romero is/was a 3B who was moved to 2nd (!) because of an injury that didn't let him throw across the diamond.  Now he's out to the OF since we're cluttered in the infield.  Marder's played everywhere, but he was doing that in college too Tenbrink is roving, but Tenbrink has to rove if he wants a major league career of any kind.  Franklin's been mostly shifted to 2nd, but he had iffy defensive and athletic skills for Short long-term when we drafted him.
Montero was a C who's now been slid to 1B.  Only Ackley and Miller have stayed at the harder position, and only Ackley and Montero have struggled much with the bat of the listed guys.  Other guys who have struggled: Catricala, who is not a 3B but keeps trying.  Liddi has labored under the same idea.
We have two issues as a team: First, we keep players at hard defensive positions for a while, maybe longer than other teams.
Second, more of our draft picks succeed as they climb levels than some other teams's, which means that when they pile up at the same position we have to move somebody.  If we could maybe draft some outfielders who don't have to be bounced around that'd be great, but I can't really complain about Seager AND Romero AND Franklin all working out and needing to shift them to keep them on the team.  Not if they actually help us.
Please help us...
~G

4
GLS's picture

I bought Chris Crawford's draft handbook. Lots of good info for $3.99. Here's the link: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/
Based on what I've read in there, the guys I'm most interested in, that could be available at 12:
Reese McGuire, C
Clint Frazier, OF
Austin Meadows, OF
Aaron Judge, OF
Hunter Renfroe, OF
Dominic Smith, 1B
I'm sure more than one of those guys will be available at 12. Even though we have Zunino, McGuire is super-duper interesting as it sounds like he could be a guy that completely shuts down the running game like Pudge Rodriguez did in his prime.

5

2005: Clement with the 3rd pick
2009: Baron (supplemental 1st)
2010: converted our 2nd round pick Littlewood to C
2011: Drafted 5 catchers in the first 20 rounds (all of them suck as hitters)
2012: Drafted Zunino with the 3rd pick
ENOUGH WITH THE CATCHERS! Pick something else!
Ahem.  Any non-catcher teenage hitter is welcome from the guys who should be available and worth the pick. I like Frazier best, but others should too so I doubt he gets to us.  Talked more about it on a thread over on Spec's site Mariners Talk.
~G

6
GLS's picture

It seems like there are a number of HS and college outfielders that should be available around 12. Guys always fall and some teams will probably over draft to sign guys below slot. Baseball America currently projects the Mariners as taking JP Crawford, a HS SS, which I hope doesn't happen.
I know we've drafted a lot of catchers, but McGuire seems like the type of guy that could be a game changer. Plus, he's local. Mainly, I would just prefer that they draft a position player rather than a pitcher and I hope they don't try to get cute and over draft a guy so that they can sign him below slot. I've seen Stanek linked to them, which worries me a bit.

7

Being that we think we are getting close, I would expect us to draft the most-ready-for-the-majors type player. This way at worst we have a trade chip, and possibly we have someone that could help in 2015.

8

Nah. We heard the same stuff when they picked Walker and Franklin - and the need for MLB ready talent was even greater back then. They will take the highest rated guy on their board, regardless of position or age. If it's a pitcher, then they will take a pitcher. If it's a highschooler, then they will take a highschooler. That's how Jack and Mac roll.

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