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Sez DaddyO, in the Mighty Klat shout box,

DaddyO: Well, it now appears that the trade of Erik Bedard and Josh Field at the deadline of 2011 netted us a largely failed prospect (Chiang from Boston) and a journeyman utility infielder (Andino, after we just flipped Trayvon Robinson to Baltimore for him).

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If all of the GM's were free agents, then Jack Zduriencik would probably be among my top 5 targets.  Just his skills with the bottom of the talent pyramid alone, that would be enough, but I also like his self-confidence with a trade, his Stars & Scrubs orientation, his tough-but-totally-fair persona, and 9,000 other things.

That said, I am still trying to figure out what happened at the Fister/Bedard trade deadline.  The M's had the best rotation that Chris "Six-Time" Chambliss had seen, "ever," dismantled it, and got zero.  Practically zero.  The moves drew howls at the time and they draw howls now.  I'm trying to organize my thinking as to what happened.  I don't mean, "it was dumb."  I mean, "I don't understand what happened."  Feel free to explain it to me.

The Doug Fister deal was the absolute antithesis of "Make sure you get back the best player in the deal."  The antithesis.  But was the Bedard trade much better?  Erikkk had serious market value at the time.

Lesson learned:  Try to be the one giving 75c, 60c and 50c for the 1.00 player.  That's the exchange rate, kiddies, because the 40c player is the replacement-level, zero-value guy:  subtract that 40c baseline and you're giving 35c, 20c and 10c for 60c.  

But for sure, don't take back four 50c players for a buck!

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Not only did the Mariners take back Trayvon Robinson, who was flipped for zero to the Mariners, but they also invested 319 Safeco at-bats in Robinson.  A full 1/4 of a season in 2011, and another full 1/4 of a season in 2012.  That was a 319 AB investment that could have been given to, say, Alex Liddi.  

The Mariners are crushed for time, with all of their "All-Hope Team" players desperately pressing against the chainlink fence trying to break through before the Rule 5 clock disappears them from Mariner history forever.  Trayvon went to the head of the line.  He turned out to be zero.

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Looking at it more dynamically:  Trayvon did hit 26 homers in 103 games in AAA in 2011, including some long ones to the opposite field.  The Mariners did gain a dice roll, a draw at the deck, to pull a Curtis Granderson.  That dice roll was not valueless.  It's like saying you had a lotto ticket with a 10% chance at a million dollars.  If you pay $40,000 for that ticket, you got good value.  It comes up a loser, you still were right to pay the $40,000.*

Trayvon's got a whale of a shot to Mike Morse us in three years, but we don't got three years.  Zduriencik bought a lotto ticket, scratched off the gray metallic stuff, and got three oinkers underneath.  See you in 2014, Trayvon.  

BABVA,

Dr D

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