Flat Tire
Q: What is the value of a limping Dee Gordon?

A:  Not much, really.

OK, pure speculation here, since hard-fast injury data is still not in, but Gordon didn't look good coming off the field:  You have to admit, even if it wasn't a "they shoot horses, don't they? type of injury, it didn't look likely that Gordon was going to be his normal race car self today. Or tomorrow.  So let's suppose he's dragging an ankle around for a few days. 

True Stuff:

Dee Gordon doesn't walk: Didn't I just read that he had the lowest walk percentage of any leadoff hitter in decades?  His BB last night was his 7th of the season.  He's come to the plate 434 times.  You do the math.  Wasn't the whole point of Money Ball to illustrate the value of the walk?  I'm sure it was.  Somebody hand Gordon a copy of that book.

Dee Gordon doesn't hurt the ball:  After showing an approach in ST that indicated he was trying to find more pop, he's now fallen back on his standard Punch (not much) and Judy happy slappy act.  He is ISO'ing .061!  Really.  Brendan "The Hammer" Ryan ISO'ed .078, .084 and .072 in three Mariner seasons.  Gordon at .656 OPS and 84 OPS+ is really an impediment in the lineup, at least for a 2B.  Like it or not.  True stuff.   He leads the league with 26 steals (and 8 CS), but the 39 steals he's on track for don't really light that many fires.    If he's hobbled, then even this value goes away.  

Dee Gordon can pick it at 2B:  He won a 2B GG in '15 with a RF/9 of 5.15 and a Fld% .992.  In '18 his RF is 5.05 and his Fld% is .979.   But here's the kicker, according to B-R the AL avg. Rf/9 in '15 was 4.78.  Gordon bested that by .37.  This season the league average. Rf/9 is 4.17!  Gordon is beating that by .88.   Weirdly, it looks like the increasing use of the shift is actually reducing the number of plays a 2B makes:  From '15-'18, the league average Rf/9 has declined in linear fashion:  4.78, 4.59, 4.41, 4.17.  Weird, huh?

But if Dee Gordon can not run, he's not valuable to the M's.  He has to steal bases and cover ground at 2B.  That's his game.  Minus that, he gets pretty heavy for a 170 lb guy.  But to steal enough bases he has to hit north of .300.  In his 4 full-time, everyday, non-injured seasons (counting this one) he's averaged about 53 or 54 infield hits (pro-rating this season's total).  Reduce that by any significant factor and things get dicey really quick.  

Early speculation, I know.  But a week of a hobbled Dee Gordon isn't really any more valuable than a week of him out of the lineup and healing.  

BTW, did you see the report that Cano is taking some grounders at 3B right now...just to expand his flexibility.  

 

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