Erikkk - Flailing for a Comp (3)

 Q.  What's the best case for Bedard, innings-wise?

A.  I dunno.  Do you see any reason he couldn't do a Chris Carpenter-type thing?

Here's where some wiseacre ignores Carpenter's long string of 175-inning (and 50-inning) seasons and points to 2005 as the big difference-maker.

Nah.  [Before his third incarnation] Carpenter was used as a workhorse one year and it wiped him out.

................

Still, I would treat Bedard as a Ferrari, even if he were feeling great.  Skip a turn once in a while.  Strict 100 pitches, no matter how much the beat writers weep and wail.  Give him a phantom DL stint, even.  He's not going to forget how to hide a fastball behind his ear.

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Q.  He's had almost two years off.

A.  I love the fact that Bedard has had two years off.  It is the one thing that makes me cheery about 2011. 

Pitchers like Carpenter will tell you, their arms were killing them for two years, and then one fine day they went out and tossed the ball and everything was totally pain-free.  For no reason.

Bedard will have had 19 consecutive months without a competitive pitch. 

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Q.  Bringing us back to, who's the comp.

A.  There isn't one.  Not that I can think of.  Nobody.

You need these things:

  • Current-state labrum surgery
  • Tons of strikeouts
  • Pitcher with long history of varied injuries
  • But having had some durable seasons
  • Pitcher who doesn't rely on arm strength

There aren't any comps.  Correct me if I'm wrong.

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Q.  So he's more like Butch Henry or more like Schilling and Carpenter?

A.  Like a postal chessplayer, I'm going to use the intuition and gingerly put it in percentages:

  • Henry, Harden type, will never be healthy - 40%
  • Pedro, Sheets type, great pitcher who will (sometimes) overcome pain with fantastic skill - 40%
  • Carpenter, Schilling, will put the surgery behind him - 20%

If Bedard were, let's say, a Boston Red Sox, the chart would look like this:

  • Will win the next five Cy Youngs - 98%
  • Will be a lot better than that - 2%

No disrespect to the M's.  I just think I'd be more optimistic about Bedard if he were pitching for somebody else.  We're all watching his USSM karma through slits in our fingers.

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Q.  Would you consider doing a Kerry Wood with him?

A.  What a tragedy that would be.  For us, and for enemy 9th-inning hitters.

Slap me silly, can you imagine those hooks, and short-arm lefty fastballs, out of the bullpen for three hitters.  I don't even want to think about it.

I guess if he started hurting a lot in May again, I'd convert him then.  Eight starts, deep ache in the arm ... 15-day DL and okay, son, you're our closer.

It would look exactly like Randy Johnson as a closer.  Vintage Eck Territory, 500 BPV's and all the trimmings.  ML All-Stars would look like pitchers at the plate.  Game after game, we 'net rats would be falling out of our chairs watching the carnage.

Hope not.

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Part 4

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