Seattle Sports Insider

Taijuan Walker: SUPER BEST BET

Trade Taijuan as you would trade a min-wage Felix

Posted by

9/5/13

The dice don't know what number they rolled last. If you've rolled 12 a lot of times lately, you don't bet against 12 on the next throw.

And if/when we deal Nick Franklin, we're dealing in futures. Roughly speaking, if you figure

30% chance - budding Pedroia-level infielder
50% chance - solid ML regular
20% chance - fizzle

Jesus Montero had the same "futures" projection, and if 9,000 guys in a row were to hit their 20% chance, it wouldn't change what you had to do with the next lotto ticket.

Great story about a poker rookie who walked up to a legendary superstar and moaned about how he'd gotten destroyed, the last three times he'd had pocket Aces in Hold 'Em. The flop hadn't come through for him. Now he thought, maybe he should slow play two Aces in the hole, because he personally was cursed by aces?

"What should I do next time I get those blinkin' Aces?!"

The superstar looked at him like he was somethin' brown and unpleasant and finally said, "Play them the same way," and excused himself. It wasn't even worth sarcasm...

...........

It's true that Nick Franklin's future isn't quite ~~random~~ a probabilistic exercise .... he is operating under the Mariners' development system. We all know that. Apparently, other GM's also know that, judging by their trade offers.

But the Mariners can't do anything about their own development system (sic!) and have no choice but to treat their prospects as the same lotto tickets that everybody else has...

............

Gordon sez, adroitly as usual,

I don't mind trading great pitchers away, I mind doing it and having nothing to show for it.

If Walker goes, it has to be for a legit monster. I understand that Upton was not that, but there are only 25 spots on the roster. ...

.... we need players who are already maxxing out and don't need our coaching to get it right.

The only way they should stay is if youth is the only barrier to their success. Who here feels confident that having 5 lineup spots filled with under-27s, three-fifths of the rotation spots filled by players with less than a year of functional major-league experience and an entire bullpen where Wilhelmsen (last year pre-arb) is the most veteran presence in it will bring us into playoff competition in 2014?

If you aren't, then you might want to trade some guys.

Of course, Fister and Pineda and Choo and As-Cab and Adam Jones and Tillman and the rest all mock us for even contemplating trades...

Walker looks like a near-certainty to join that list if we let him go. But can we afford to let him stay?

- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/scouting-report-taijuan-walker-9...

............................

SSI would officially anoint Taijuan Walker a SuperDeeDooper Best Bet, except that we assume there is nobody on the other side of that question.

But, if there is anybody in Seattle who didn't watch those two games and conclude that Walker is a Strasburg-level asset, chime in, and we'll publish a trite Super Best Bet article. (What's this article, then? Just a comment that Nick Franklin's trade value does not relate to Taijuan's or Felix'.)

The only way for Walker to not emerge as a TOR starter, and emerge as one Tomorrow, is for him to get injured. His "futures" projection is -- streamlining it a bit for effect --

80% - Star pitcher
20% - DL

And of that 80%, a good chunk of sub-sets out as HOF-Level Pitcher. Taijuan isn't a lotto ticket; he is what Tim Lincecum was, as Lincecum entered the league. He is what Felix was in 2005. Hopefully somebody will take the other side of the question; it's been a while since we shot ducks in a barrel around here.

Best Bets, in Las Vegas, are not guarantees. Some Best Bets lose. You might only hit 4 out of 5 of them. But if you could actually hit 4-for-5, you'd be filthy rich. That's what you hit at SSI.

Taijuan is as sure a thing as Michael Pineda was -- and with a MUCH higher upside. Pineda was a 3rd standard deviation pitcher; Taijuan could very easily be a 6th SD pitcher.

................................

Trade Taijuan as you would trade Felix .... if Felix were making $490,000. Well, you know what we mean. Trade Taijuan as you would trade the 2005 Felix.

You might have traded the 2005 Felix for Giancarlo Stanton. Like Gordon says, make SURE you are VERY happy with what you get back.

BABVA,

Dr D

Blog:

Dr's R/X

Comments

Low Mileage on Walker's Arm?

It's my understanding that Walker may have fewer miles on his arm than normal for an outstanding young prospect pitcher, due to: 1) his concentration on basketball in high school, and 2) signing with the M's out of high school. If he avoided those elite travelling baseball teams and the concommitant heavy use, it should make him less of an injury risk now, compared to elite young pitchers who were over-used in high school and college. If this is true, his injury risk may be less than other pitching prospects. This might add to the pile of reasons to keep him, rather than trade him.

Bidding Wars

Walker = untouchable? I hope so. If that's the case, I don't think the M's can trade for Stanton.
Texas is in a much better position to overpay for Stanton: Profar and Martin Perez as headliners would be tough to top.
Hopefully Tai and Felix will be comparing notes for the next five years or so :)

Bill James has your back on this one

First time I saw him make this comment was in a Player Ratings book, early in Trevor Hoffman's career. "The fact that he's a converted hitter is a major plus."
Worked out okay for him. Not all closers have Trevor Hoffman's shelf life...

2 years of Stanton > 6 years of Walker?

There's possibility to retain Stanton longer... or Walker for that matter. I don't think I'd do that straight up right now. We need pitching to win too. I'd love to have Stanton, but love having Walker more all things considered (unless I'm missing something pretty big.) I think Stanton is a good target, just wouldn't trade Walker, Felix, Zunino or Seager to get him. I think conventionally Seager or Walker would be considered but I don't live in a convent. There's some fluidity at other positions and too many options at some to where any position other than 3b and catcher appear replaceable from within. Not that it necessarily works out that way.
I'd rather plan on Felix and Walker starting 70% or so of our playoff games when the rest is improved enough.
Don't know if I'd rather have 5 years of Profar than 2 years of Stanton though...That, to me, seems closer.

Trade Thoughts

I think almost any team would trade Walker+ (Franklin, Seager, or Miller?) + a prospect or maybe a reliever for Stanton. Personally, my bias is against these sorts of deals. I don't think they usually work out. On the other hand, you have the Miguel Cabrera to Detroit deal. I guess if I thought Stanton was a 25-year old Cabrera or Albert Pujols, then I would do the deal in a second. But Stanton isn't either of those guys and he isn't Harper or Trout either. On the other hand, Stanton is pretty close to a sure thing upper echelon offensive player with more or less neutral defense for at least the next 5-6 years. It wouldn't be like trading Adam Jones for Erik Bedard. Barring some sort of major injury, I'm sure we'd be happy with the player.
I suppose what it really comes down to is talent evaluation- both your own talent and the other guy's. It's the number one skill for a major league GM. You can't do deals like Adam Jones for Erik Bedard or Doug Fister for whatever.
You know, we're still hurting from the Adam Jones trade. That was a franchise player that we gave up.

Nope!

Can't agree, GLS. Nope, nope, nope.
Any franchise would swap Walker & Seager & a prospect for Stanton? Not likely.
Actually Seager is the better hitter this year. Let's assume that Stanton's long-term production is what we've seen as his career average....137 OPS+. That's nice. Seager's is only 117, but for those extra 20 pts, do you give up Walker AND a prospect? Eeeeeesh. Not me.
And Seager's 117 really become potent if you ever play him at 2B (which the M's won't.)
It's easy to say that Stanton's upside is much larger than Seagers.....but that factors out Walker's Seaver-type upside.
I agree with you on the personal bias against, but I don't agree if you think most teams make that deal.....especially with Stanton only a two year man.
I think a great GM would look at our pieces and say, "I like this a lot. I'll play these cards, and buy a few more."

This would be really cool, Spec. or Gordon

Some of us (me) are really in the dark when it comes to understanding the long term roster implications of our talent base. I would love to have a graph like this for the Mariner 40 man and maybe beyond roster. I know Spec is really good at this sort of thing: http://www.hawkblogger.com/2013/09/updated-seahawks-5-year-roster-outloo...

Stanton Available?

I have read rumblings (primarily on MLBTR) that Miami may be planning for a quick re-load and, if so, a core piece would be Stanton. My understanding is that Miami has some good young talent and could add Abreu from Cuba for a quick offensive upgrade. So if the M's are planning on getting Stanton; it should be backed up by well thought out Plans B & C -- they might get out-bid even if Stanton is available.

Legit Argument

That's a totally legit argument and philosophically, I tend to agree with you. I lean towards an approach that emphasizes scouting and player development from within and I like the idea of having good players up and down the roster that can do lots of different things at the major league level - hit, run the bases, play defense, etc - as opposed to having a few great players and then surrounding them with subpar talent. But I can also see the argument to make the deal. Walker is a young pitcher and young pitchers tend to be both injury prone and inconsistent and Seager, as much as I love the guy, isn't a superstar. He's a good major league player that will likely have a 10+ year career. That makes him a valuable asset, but not one that you can't move.
I do think that if the Mariners make that deal (or one similar), it needs to come with an extension so that you're getting the guy for at least 5 years and not just 2.

Sure, we'll take a look at that

No more minor-league games to recap, so we'll be moving on to other stuff.
Good tip, Rick

Absolutely

Need an extension to consider including Walker at all. If it's 2 years of Stanton, Walkers worth more to me.
Seagers stardom isn't why I wouldn't trade him. Look at our minors and around the majors and you'll see how difficult he would be to approximate from any source. He's 15 th in WAR at 3b from 2011-today at 8.4 with 4.1 coming this year(8th). His .358 wOBA is 7th right now at 3rd. 128 WRC+ is 8th. He now appears to be on the cusp of the top 25% in the game at his position. A position very difficult to find a decent option even. I'd rather be looking for production at positions other than 3b and catcher right now.
You could move Seager and keep Miller and Franklin, move Franklin to 3b or some such. Why mess with what's working though? Stanton in 2012 was 8 th highest in OF WAR, but only such year, in the NL, not in Safeco. Seager has been very good here.