I can't help but see the Mariners from a fantasy league perspective, though the other teams in MLB don't have equal budgets. Still, we've got Felix as our ace and Cano as the best 2B in the game, both for a long time to come. They match up well, head to head, with their counterparts at their positions. Beyond those two, the rest is roster filler. Maybe Spec is right about roster development strategy and you are right about risk aversion with FA pitchers. But teams need to take risks to win, especially when you risk losing (again, still) by standing pat. Yes, you can choose your risks, somewhat, but the crop of FAs changes each year, and obtaining players in trade requires a willing partner or two. In real life, it is generally a keeper league without very much roster turnover from fall to spring. You must choose wisely among the available players, but you must choose or lose.
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BPJ, in the shout box, sez
bpj: What I learned from Z's comments was that they weren't signing Jimenez for as many years as he wants. No other team has either.. If the price drops to 3 years with an option, it may be a different story.
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Hm. This sounded strangely plausible, so we headed over to MLBTR, which said ...
- Eight teams, including the Rockies, Orioles, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers, have interest in Ervin Santana, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish writes. (Earlier today, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik seemed to imply the Mariners would not be heavily involved on Santana.) Other teams could enter the picture as well. The Cubs also asked about Santana, but draft-pick forfeiture is a problem for them, even though their first pick is protected.
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And MLBTR's link-within-a-link said ...
"I don't think we're going to jump in and invest where some of these dollars are going," Zduriencik says. "It just doesn't make sense when you take a 30-, 31-, 32-year old pitcher that wants five or six years and there is some history there of injury or inconsistencies."
Zduriencik said those risks were the reason the Mariners didn't strongly pursue Masahiro Tanaka (who is younger, but would have required a long commitment). He also suggests that it would have been difficult to outbid the Yankees. "We've made two major investments here in the last two years with Felix [Hernandez] and now Robinson," Zduriencik says. "To do that again would have been real challenging. And in the end, the numbers could have gone up. If we made that offer, who knows what the heck the Yankees would have done after that?"
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Aaaa-haa-haa-haaaaaaAAAllllll righty then.
Based on the above, at least, BPJ is exactly right. The M's wouldn't mind a $15M salary, but they don't want another scary, $75M contract right this second. Not unless it's for something that's verrrrrry different from --- > a 30-something pitcher whose arm might go at any moment. (In baseball, there are lots of things that are different from that.)
And if so, does anybody disagree with the Mariners' stance?
The M's stretched a LONG ways on Cano -- enough so that they drew criticism for it, from teams that had themselves blown the market several times over. Aaand the M's had just recently stretched (by their standard) on Felix, giving him what ... three times their previous total-value contract?
If it's hard for them to get comfortable with a THIRD deal that has them playing ATM Cash Machine down the road as far as the eye can see, they'll wait a bit. Therefore, Tanaka was uncomfortable for them. If he was a problem based on this reasoning, I unsay my earlier grumblings about the Tanaka signing.
I can't fault them for their fiscal position here. Can you?
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What I *can* fault them for, is the scenario where the Straw That Stirs is a guy who wants 3 years, 4th year option, and they pass on that.
Well ... what is their position on 4-year deals, then? Are they saying, it's either a 1-year make-good, or we're done? Hey, they threw a number out there. The number they specified was FIVE (5) years, that is, that 5-year deals make them very uncomfortable .... Zduriencik's quote says no PITCHERS for FIVE years if the pitcher's FRAGILE.
The words, at least, are eminently reasonable.
And the words, at least, leave the Mariners squarely in for Jimenez, provided Jimenez will go three years with a team-friendly 4th year clause. (The words also leave the Mariners in for Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jeff Samardzija, etc.)
They've got a clear STATED guideline on their next acquisition: they player can't come with a white-knuckle contract. I'm with them.
My $0.02,
Dr D
Comments
Doc... I agree that the long term agreements are risky, and thus teams probably should not get involved with too many.
However, IF you KNOW you are restricting your self in the market to certain players... then you NEED to get involved in the process early in the free agency market to get the players that meet your criteria... thus going hard after a Colon or a Kazmir or such quality pitchers willing to sign two year deals early on in the free agency process VERSUS waiting until the end when your choices are extremely thin... waiting is the biggest problem the Mariners continue to repeat each and every year.
Further, IF you KNOW what your budget is, and you have targeted a player you MUST have as your major investment for the 5+ years... over spending a little to get that player is OK... BUT overspending by at least 3M per year for 10 years is just further restricting your future moves and hurting yourself.
Lastly, I am consistently amazed how NO ONE in the M's front office ever seems willing to admit that by taking the risk of spending more money on the right player just could pay for itself if the Mariners are in the play-off hunt in September with the added ticket sales.
Strike early has certainly not been a Zduriencik trait. He's been going after the big gun first and the rest of the roster later. And it's unfortunate - there were some really nice players that took relatively short contracts early.
For those complaining that the Mariners aren't maneuvering themselves for early deals...I would suggest that waiting on the pitching market has been a very GOOD idea this year. People striking early got Vargas for 32 million (!) and such. The deals are all for the pitchers with draft picks to their names who are running out of time to sign. Those guys can be had at a bargain rate (see: Lohse, Kyle). If you don't care about your supplemental pick from Morales...then you go get Santana or Jimenez the moment the price drops to 3/33. Patience can help you in that case.
As for other holes...it is true that some nice players signed on low-cost deals early this year...but those are mostly guys who signed because that was the place they wanted to be...not because that was the best they could do.
Found this gem through FanGraphs as well. Every pitch thrown by Maddux in the 1995 WS vs Cleveland's murder's row:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veEPDsHFE_I
Part of Z's comments may be interpreted as him saying, "Hey, it's likely whoever we get right now is a #4 for us, considering it's a darn good bet that either Walker or Paxton explodes all over the league this year. So considering that we're buying a #4, we'll be careful with our future financial resources."
And to all that....I agree.
4 years for Jimenez, who wasn't very good in '11 or '12 you will remember, is a long time.
I'm sniffing out all Bailey and Samardzija options long before I roll $60M into Jimenez.
Will be needed for big contracts to buy out some FA years for Seager, Miller, etc..... Somebody has to step up and be our young cornerstone, my money is on Miller. Since we may not have assembled a complete outfield or bullpen looks like we can afford a year of auditioning youngsters for the 3-4-5 slots in the rotation.