While your point is valid ... I would caution that K/BB is not a strictly linear measure of effectiveness. There is a point at which one can become too intent on going for Ks and refusing to walk people that it becomes detrimental.
Yes ... to be an elite pitcher, a stellar K/BB is generally required.
But ... a great K/BB does not "guarantee" you are a stellar pitcher.
In 2012 ... dealing with full season stats: There were 13 starters with K/BB numbers above 3.00. Among that group:
Dan Haren: (12-13; 4.33 for the best offense in baseball).
Phil Hughes: (16-13; 4.23 for the Yankees).
The first guy outside the 3.00 club was Bruce Chen at 2.98.
Chen finished 11-14 with a 5.07 ERA for the Royals
The key factor for all of these guys was HR rate - all at 1.4 or above.
Hughes is again in the elite K/BB arena (5.00 at the moment), but is 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Why? The 1.7 HR/9.
Jake Peavy also has a 1.7 HR/9 to go with his 6.50 K/BB.
Not to rain on the Iwakuma parade, but Iwakuma is next at 1.2 among the 4+ K/BB crowd in 2013.
Iwakuma is a special talent. But, before he moves into the elite class of pitcher, he is going to have to prove that he can avoid the long ball.
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As for why not move Capps into the rotation ... IMO, the WORST kind of poison one can supply a young team is an unreliable bullpen. If you are not battle tested, it is HARD to deal with losing games you thought you had won. The psychological devastation of the blown save is something players must adjust to over time ... and frequency is probably the key variable in how that adjustment goes.
Yes, the BOR has been ugly. But, so has the bullpen. The recent changes have helped fix some of the earlier problems, (Loe the primary culprit). I'm thinking Capps is finally settling down into super set-up man role. The last thing *I* want to see is Oliver Perez in the setup role. But worse yet would be experiments with guys like Beavan or Noesi as setup guys.
Mind you, I have zero love for Harang, nor any desire to see him get any more starts than absolutely necessary ... but for me the priority is to get the bullpen squared away and then fix the rotation in a manner that will not lead to a bullpen implosion.
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BASEBALL IS ABOUT THE STRIKE ZONE, sez the Founding Father
Over the last three years, there are three starting pitchers whose CTL ratios ... that is, their K/BB ratios ... exceed 4.0.
- Cliff Lee - 7.2
- Roy Halladay - 5.7
- Dan Haren - 4.4
Then all the other elites are in the 3's ... Verlander and Greinke at 3.8, Doug Fister at 3.6, etc.
Iwakuma is at 7.4 and Felix is at 6.3. Crazy. Baseball IS about the strike zone, and the more you analyze Iwakuma (and Maurer!) through that lens, the better they look. Felix? He is improving.
Right now Iwakuma is running a WBC-style exhibition out there, and is looking more and more like the incarnation of our DiceK fantasy.
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I DIDN'T EXPECT TO WAKE UP FROM THAT! WHAT DO I DO NOW, Dept.
The top of the rotation is frantically trying to buy time for the ballclub to get its offense and #4-5 starters together. Amazingly, the M's just moved into 3rd place, ahead of both LA and Houston. Heh! After all of the carnage we've witnessed, the patient lives. It's in triage, but Felix and WBC-san have applied paddles to chest and kept the season alive.
We remember a book about Tom Seaver carrying the Miracle Mets to the title... the subtitle to the book was great. It went like, "The incredible story of the team that couldn't win, the pitcher who wouldn't lose, and the championship they won together" ... something along those lines.
Great. Koufax and Drysdale just won you a pair of games, 3-2 and 2-1, and you wake up Monday morning still fogging a mirror. But when you're bleeding out in the ambulance, I don't suggest you take the time to drive through and get a latte. If somebody else can hit better than Justin Smoak, or pitch better than Aaron Harang, now's the time.
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JUST NOODLING, STAY COOL ALREADY
Oh, for a Carter Capps in the rotation. Skip the reasons why not, and just for laughs, imagine if Pryor got back and then you added Chris Sale to your rotation ... Your 1-2 starters are going all Unit and Schilling on the league. You got a rookie hotshot in the 3. Now add a smokin' sexy hot right hand Randy Johnson to do a Michael Pineda in the four slot?
I know, I know. Not a viable option. SSI is still going to bring up Chris Sale for at least ... well, we're going to bring up Chris Sale, indefinitely.
Haven't looked at Nick Franklin yet this year. Would somebody bring me up to speed? Gordon says that's the move. Am also intrigued by Peguero, who retains some longshot chance to become a Ryan Howard type, and by other possible moves.
Carlos Triunfel has 18 hits, among them 8 extra-base hits, in his last 10 games. Point is: he's seeing the ball great. If you're playing Robert Andino at short, it's hard to say what you'd be risking on that one.
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YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN GETS HIS LIGHTNING BOLT IN THE NICK OF TIME
And the patchwork monster flickers its eyelids. Geoffy said, four days ago, that the season would be over on May 1 if players didn't stop slumping their shoulders.
Next day, Sgt. Wedge threw over the buffet tables. The M's took three of four from the pesky rodent Angels and, Geoffy now tells us, the Mariners are back to paying attention. Okay, let's take stock ... ::ticks points off on fingers::
- Michael Saunders texted Wedge (siiigghhhhhhhhhhhhh....) "I'm ready!" and is back in there Monday
- Montero's got two homers in the last few days, and, um .... is a megatalent
- Ackley's hitting .400 the last week-and-a-half, using his new quasi-Ichiro approach
- Morse hit an HR Sunday ... and hit an HR barely foul the day before ... so the timing is back, right?
They playin' us for suckas again!
So, great. Let's root some baseball. If the M's could poach 2-of-3, with Bazooka back to Safeco and Maurer going ... after three games, it's back to Koufax and Drysdale. WOW! Is there a baseball season in front of us?!
................
Next POTD's will likely attend to:
- Iwakuma's 72 MPH change curve
- Why his fastball draws so many swings and misses
- Felix and DiceK / Darvish as comps
- Felix' competitiveness
- The Ackley / Ichiro comp you guys keep bringing up
- Unless you suggest something better
Sorry; got sidetracked there. Anyway ... you have two more starts, where Iwakuma is your little secret, before he begins to emerge as a national star. His second-tier numbers, like SwStr%, are so GLARING that even ESPN is going to be on him, and very shortly.
Enjoy the lull before the storm. Coupla starts, we sez. Then New York sits up with a start, the hype factory kicks off, and we get the debate about who starts the All-Star game, Darvish or Iwakuma ...
Well it could happen,
Dr D
Comments
Sandy, Because Iwakuma allows so few baserunners, a lot of the HRs he gives up are solo shots, which hurt less. So perhaps Kuma can continue at 1.2 HR/9 and still be an elite pitcher.
Try:
Reached base in every single game he's played this year (that would be 15; missed first week with tonsilitis)
Reached base by getting a base hit in 14 of those 15
Had five base hits and a walk in one of those games
Eye ratio: 14 BB, 8 K
XBH or a walk in 29.6% of PAs (I've found 19% to be the benchmark)
Slash line: .382/.514/.618
vs. LHP (the Achilles Heel): 11 PAs, 4 H, 1 double, 4 BB, 1 K (not much data, but way better than what we'd been seeing)
And he's sporting a new, mature "fierce" look.
(Well, kinda ... he's still Little Nicky underneath.)
Played 2b in 9 games; SS 5 games and DH once.
The few times I've seen Franklin (in ST), he looked hesitant in the field, at least to me. How's his defense in Tacoma looking to you this year?
Maybe more M's hitters (specifically Smoak) should eat 6,500 caleries each day at Chick Fil A......
The Year the Mets Lost Last Place. I think Doc. I read that one WAY back in the day (1970). Miracle Mets was another.
Anytime we get our Ace and Near-Ace throwing in the same 3-game series, we have a decent chance to take it.
But that was the FIRST series we've won this year so not stopping for the latte is great advice. Changes are needed, badly.
Smoak. Andino. I would retire Raul, too....keeping Peguero (or Thames),
Franklin or Triunfel for Andino is such a no-brainer move that I really can't understand why we haven't made it. Andino is terrible. Andino has played in 9 different seasons, in 6 of those (regardless of size of sample) he has OPS'ed LESS than .600. THAT is his normal level. Despite the routine grounder that went through his wickets the other night, historically he's a usable glove at SS. BUT HE CAN'T HIT! He's Ryan redux! Get rid of him, keep Ryan for his 8th/9th inning glove, and let's go iin a different direction. Franklin will hit. Triunfel will be just fine. Let's go with one of those guys. We can't keep having automatic outs in the lineup.
Smoak hit a home run......so that means the M's think he's about to go all Hank Greenberg. We will keep him up....long enough for him to hit ANOTHER HR. Cycle will restart, then. I can't imagine why we think he's a slugger...but everytime he hits a tater or gets two singles Wedge and the FO are sure he's about to breakout.
All along, this was a team that could be interesting when and if we gave the right kids their shot. Minus Maurer, we've not even investigated it. OK Erasmo and Hultzen are currently tweaked. I know that.
Gotta love The Bartender. He just owned the MOTO of the Angels, three days in a row.
Iwakuma is a pleasure to watch. His Change AND the Shuuto do entirely different things, rolling off the table in different directions....or am I making that up?
If Maurer pays attention and asks #1/#2 the right questions he's going to learn tons.
moe
Now that you mention it Sandy, homers would be a good thing to take into consideration with K and BB. You could have like a Three True Outcomes or something.
You could create a stat, let's call it "xFIP," that takes into consideration the HR rate along with K and BB. In fact we could make "xFIP" so that it predicts the future HR rate based on the current flyball rate (which for Kuma is high).
You could calculate this stat and find Iwakuma's xFIP at 2.97, eighth in the AL, ahead of Price, Verlander etc.
Or, you could simply apply a sense of proportion to realize that Iwakuma's homer rate is not going to ruin his K/BB, any more than it did for Dan Haren, who always gave up his share of homers.
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From a common-sense standpoint, I think Iwakuma is going to give up some HR's, yes, about 1.05 to 1.25 per nine, and I think this will cause him to fall a bit shy of Greg Maddux' standard. As some other pitchers have also.
Iwakuma's lifetime xFIP as a starter is 3.42. Compare this to Zack Greinke's xFIP, the last three years, at 3.66. Over the period 2010-12 there were four (4) AL pitchers with xFIP's lower than Iwakuma's.
Iwakuma will give up HR's. Not nearly enough to do the other teams any good.
For reference's sake -
1.09 - American League average HR rate
1.0 to 1.2 - standard HR rate for a starting pitcher
1.4 - "gopheritis" (the point at which a starting pitcher is going to have problems staying in rotation)
.............
1.09 - Iwakuma's HR rate, career, as a starter
1.07 - Dan Haren's career HR rate
1.14 - James Shields' HR rate, 2009-12
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To be an elite starter, you do have to prove you can control HR's, yes. As Iwakuma proved during the first inning of Sunday's baseball game, as Mike Trout and Albert Pujols took their half-baked swings against him.
*Watching a game* that Iwakuma pitches these days, you'd be more concerned about batters hitting the ball out of the infield against him than what his HR rate would be ....
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Churchill, IIRC, says he's already lost much of the weight he gained in the off season. Which gives credence to the M's stance that it wasn't good weight.
It does look just like a changeup from the CF camera, but it "cuts" back to 0 inches horizontal ... changeups fade armside. But exactly right. It's effectively a changeup, as far as location, pitch sequencing, etc.
Don't always reply much to your comments Mo' because there's not much to say but /cosign. Always take them in with pleasure, though. :- )
I believe Franklin said in January that he knew some of the weight would go down once ST and the season began. So, forward three months later into ST, I do not believe that the M's had a negative stance.
If you don't believe that college and pro athletes are monitored at some degree by nutritionists, Kinesiologist, etc., then you probably never experienced high level ball and you are just going by the hype of misinformed, over zealous journalists.
Appreciate the information in the second paragraph. Perhaps you could provide more.
Glad to hear that my observations were "generally" correct. They appear to be two different weapons.
Ya, would like to see more detail on that.
..........
Geoff Baker published Franklin's basic diet in February -- http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2020379791_mariners18.html. Looks like the second half of the 6500 calories was in eggs and protein shakes. If the public is able to monitor Franklin's diet, we might infer that the Mariners could.
.............
Most of us know a fair bit about nutrition these days. It's not clear to me why the quality of the diet -- the % of protein, after the first 200-300 grams of it -- is relevant to whether Franklin would be losing weight (fat vs muscle) now. He wouldn't have been using the 500th gram of protein for muscle manufacture anyway, right?
Most bodybuilders simply count calories when bulking. Meaning, run the calorie count up higher. Is Churchill saying that Nick Franklin had taken his body fat from 10% to 20% ?! Sounds unlikely.
On the other hand, if he's been stripping muscle in April here, it's hard to understand how he's been performing athletically like he has been....
Iwakuma 2012:
ERA = 3.16 (8th) among 120+ IP guys
FIP = 4.35 (34th)
xFIP = 3.76 (12th)
2013:
ERA = 1.67 (5th)
FIP = 3.23 (16th)
xFIP = 2.97 (8th)
Very Good pitcher. But "elite" pitcher is a stretch ... even though he has started the season very hot.
My response was prompted because you're associating Iwakuma with names like Koufax and Maddux and Halladay and Lee.
I have no objection to mentioning Felix with these guys, since Felix has YEARS of data to back up his case for Hall of Fame discussion. Iwakuma has 160 innings of MLB performance to go on. And throughout last year AND this year, he had HR issues.
I get the excitement ... but Bartolo Colon has a 20.00 K/BB at the moment. We all know THAT is transient. So, why get overly excited about an early season ratio that is extreme at the moment?
Felix has a career 3.96 K/BB and is at 6.29 at the moment. Which of those stats is far more likely to be representative of his true ability?
At the moment, there are 7 pitchers in the AL with K/BB of 5.00 or better ... including Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana. Iwakuma's K/BB last year was 2.35 ... 36th among those AL pitchers with 120+ innings. He certainly may have improved since last year. But, I see zeroing in on K/BB over a 6-start span along the same lines as getting overly excited that Chris Davis has a .352/.444/.750 (1.194) slashline at the moment for Baltimore. He "may" actually have improved. But, it is unlikely that he has actually become Albert Pujols at age 27.
As I explicitly stated.
He's on a nice little roll here and I expect his shelf life to be about 30-50 starts. During those starts I'd take him about #10 in an AL draft among SP's. There are a lot of pitchers who have had short runs like that in baseball history, pitching comparably to the HOF'ers.
Everybody else got that bro'. Every mini-debate between you and me is like hacking blackberries.
Jeff, as you know, I'm an Iwakuma fanboy. His results over 2012-3 have continually improved since he was moved into the rotation in mid-2012. I'm curious why you think his "shelf life" will be 30-50 starts, which implies regression sometime in 2014. The M's brain trust, to their credit, have very carefully managed his pitch counts and have not over-used him. Do you think his shoulder trouble will return then, or the league's hitters will figure him out, or ...... ? My personal hope is that he is a quality mainstay in the rotation through at least 2015. Thanks, Terry.
If the wear and tear on his shoulder takes his velo down to 87 on the fastball .... as it probably would, if they got overexuberant about riding him...
But on the other hand, if they were willing to set his pitches at *90* like they've been (involuntarily) doing, keep his IP to 160-180 per year, then yeah. He could roll along for quite a while.
That's just my guestimate. What's yours Terry?
Bret Boone had a HOF year (or two, even).
Miguel Tejada had a HOF half-decade.
Derek Jeter had a HOF career.
I'll still take the half-decade if I can get it, and the year if it doesn't cost me too much. We won 116 games when a few guys had nice "up" years together.
Iwakuma is pitching amazingly. I wish we had him when he was 26. As it is, I'm glad we have him for the next 3 years if we'd like him. He's not gonna be this good the rest of the year, but I don't see any reason he'll fall off a cliff into "mediocre." He's a plus pitcher who will continue to be plus.
And for a year or two he could be amazing.
~G
Larry Stone: http://blogs.seattletimes.com/hotstoneleague/2013/04/23/for-mariners-how...
Nick Franklin. The 2009 first-round draft pick out of high school made a big splash in spring training with his winter regimen of 6,500 calories a day that resulted in a 34-pound weight gain (much of which appears to have been lost after the Mariners put the kibosh on his dietary plan).
Geoff talked about it quite a bit in ST. Nick got himself in some hot water with the club over this. IIRC, there was a closed door chat with him shortly after he reported to camp and he dumped the entire routine immediately.
I'm more hopeful/optimistic for Iwakuma having longer career as the M's #2 starter, through the length of his current contract + option, which I believe carries through 2016. Given his current age of 32, my basis of optimism:
1) Iwakuma is a finesse pitcher who has command and knows how to use all his pitchess, not a power pitcher who has to re-learn how to pitch in his early to mid 30's as velocity drops.
2) Very careful monitoring of his pitch count by the M's -- he only pitched 125 innings last year & is on pace for 180-190 innings this year -- hopefully will keep his arm fresh.
3) Physical strengthening of his shoulder. Iwakuma indicated that this year is shoulder is much stronger due to his exercise regimen over the offseason. Hopefully this will keep his arm healthy for several more years.
At this point...whatever. The Kid is 3 for 3 again with a walk as of the 7th inning. Now batting .410. Hey, Loria and the Marlins - sure you don't want Andino back to be your interim SS until Hechevarria heals?
For most of us, the quality of the calories matter. For a 20-year old with super-duper athletic genes that is arguably underweight to begin with (the article said he was at 162 in September), it doesn't actually matter that much. The article also said he got his squat up to 425 pounds. That's pretty strong. I doubt the dude had an ounce of fat on him.
I'm also not surprised he lost a bunch of the weight in spring training. He probably has the metabolism of a grasshopper, and once he dropped the calorie consumption down a bit, I'm sure the weight just went away. If only it was that easy for the rest of us. I'd guess he's probably around 180 right now.
Oddly enough, I've never heard anything about Justin Smoak being a gym rat like Franklin.