Mosh Pit, 9.2.14
Condor clings to his hope of ML stardom

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New poster j.b. Kawika put several info-taining posts into this thread.  Thanks j.b.

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I'm not sure of his issues staying on the field are bad luck or the beginning of something chronic but looking ahead to next season: a starting outfield of Ackley, Jackson, and Saunders would probably project out as something like league average. And there'd be some upside there if Ackley really is a better than average hitter, if Jackson can get back to his form from a couple of years ago, and if Saunders can put it all together and do it for 140 games or so that could pretty easily be a 9 win outfield. 

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Nice visual.  :- )   And "something like league average" may be a little modest -- league average is 2.0 WAR x 3 players, right?

Michael Saunders has 1.7 WAR this year in 65 games, which pro-rates to 4.1 WAR per season.  Of course, he's up and down, and the 65 games represents a "flash" of his talent ... we're guessing most SSI denizens would consider Saunders a late bloomer who looks mostly past his growing pains.

As to the chronic health issues ... yeah.  The Jamesian principle is that --- > a past record of injury is NOT predictive.  Latest case in point, Jacoby Ellsbury.  Ellsbury of course played for James' Red Sox, and Bill sat through the horrendous string of nicks and dings to his soft tissues.  At BJOL he shrugged off the pain, saying that Ellsbury was just as likely as anybody to stay healthy ... now in 2014 here is Ellsbury, playing 131 of the Yankees' 135 games.  A better rate than Robinson Cano has had this year :- )

In Saunders' specific case, Dr. D would be inclined to believe that the interruptions in play have been just bad luck.  That's his opinion he could be wrong.

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Austin Jackson has had 14.6 WAR the last 4 years -- that's the #14 total in the American League over that period.  As Mariners fans, "projecting" him to 3.5 WAR isn't a wild hope; it is Jackson's established level of performance.

I've been kinda disgusted with the way he's looked in Safeco ... but objectively speaking, there was a very-similar player who has already been in CF here, that being Mike Cameron.  Cameron did great there.

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Dustin Ackley ... there was some remark about his being #30 in the majors for hard-hit balls.  Track that since July 1 and it's top 10 for sure.  It seems like three times a night, he smacks the ball on the button.

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Saunders, by the way, was on a rehab assignment to rejoin the M's until --- > he scored a "viral infection."  This "three plus players" outfield could conceivably occur THIS year.  But it's getting late early, Yogi.

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Here are the top 4 Mariner outfielders from 2013:

"Hitter" WAR
Saunders 1.2
Ackley 0.6
Gutierrez 0.5
Ibanez 0.1

So, yeah.  Replace those top four with 3.5 (Jackson), 3.0 (Ackley), 2.5 (Saunders) and somebody better than replacement, and you've added 70 runs in the outfield.

The difference between best offense in the league, and the worst, is what, 200 runs?.  In scale, +70 runs from your OF would be like adding LeBron James and Kevin Love to your lineup :- )

Thanks jb,

Dr D

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