When Porcello first came up, he was chicken-feathers...running bad K rates and getting "lucky" his first year...having significant ERA problems later, and then developing into a much more solid power arm.
Spec is nails on this one. Good read even by his standards.
He believes that even if Elias has jumped a plateau - very possible in his view - he still needs to show MLB-ready performance at AAA. It's a very tough argument to oppose.
Dr. D shares this view, with a big asterisk. Elias was sold long last year, but his MLE's just didn't bear it out, not in terms of Elias' K:BB ratio. And now everybody's raving again - but Elias has more walks than strikeouts.
Bat571 has adopted Elias, who is liable to make Bat look like a genius. Because that big asterisk? For extreme groundball pitchers who are brand new to a league, the CMD ratio can fade into the background. (The funky ball they throw takes a while to figure out.)
There are any number of Wangs, Ericksons, etc etc who did have 2-3 early splash seasons despite lousy CMD ratios. Bill James hates groundball pitchers with the passion of 1,000 suns, but he is speaking in terms of investing in them, of trying to get 3+ years out of them. In the short term, a weird groundball pitcher can bang out of the gates flying into the first turn.
If you're an M's intern reading this, then ... research the issue. Short-term, wayyy groundballers, splashing into a league short term. And tell Zduriencik.
And, we hasten to add that Bat571 has something else going for his adopt-a-player: Elias could go through 2 stages:
- Funky groundballer who runs a 3.99 ERA despite 90 walks and 110 strikeouts, then...
- A power lefty who learns how to command the ball in the zone and gets legitimately good
No doubt about it. SSI would rather see a month of Roenis Elias over Randy Wolf, over Blake Beavan and maybe even over Scott Baker.
If you missed it, Tuesday night's game is on TV. Unfortunately, it's Randy Wolf starting, but any game with Brad Miller in it is worth watching.
Franklin Trade to Orioles - SSI Comments Section
If you missed it in the comments, our on-site Orioles expert gave a rundown on the Baltimore camera angle here. Good stuff. He gingerly predicts a deal with the Mets.
Bat571 followed up with a pithy multi-team analysis. He kicks the soccer ball down the field by guessing Rafael Montero & Juan Lagares from the Mets. I would think that Spectator, who emphasizes AAA performance, would be interested in this scenario -- here's yet another link for yer, this one being to a Mets blog giving its local take on Montero.
Mariners Q&A: Can anyone other than Cano bat .300? And much more - Tacoma News Tribune
In terms of the material he puts into the TNT, Bob Dutton brings serious game. He's a "lifer" on the beat circuit, he's got the feel, and coming from the Royals he is unencumbered by the Seattle-fashionable USSM cynicism. He'll tell you when something good is going on, and he doesn't worry (as much) about whether the blogs will snicker.
So you the air is cleaner off the rear spoiler of his access.
Bob's Q-and-A's really get after it. In this particular edition, he relays that
- Taijuan has already, in effect, thrown a 2 IP game
- It'll be an upset if Iwakuma isn't in the rotation quickly
- No reason the M's couldn't play .500, or considerably better if the "rotation comes together in a big way"
- Kendrys is a rough ride because "the M's moved on," adding Hart and Morrison, and ...
- The M's legitimately believe in Smoak for 2014
- The shortstop duel is NOT a dog and pony show, and
- Scouts are coming around on Franklin sticking at shortstop
Tellin' ya, man. That's clean.
You go amig-O,