I can vibe with. Ackley in my starting OF, bllleecchhh. His ISO in June of point zero-nine-eight is making me cry. Was hoping he would go down to AAA and work on driving the ball into the gaps. Looking at his numbers he's emulating Wade Boggs. Which would be FANTASTIC if it he could carry it over to MLB. I have my doubts.
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Bill James addresses a theme that we go to a lot here at SSI. The real problems in baseball that you can't capture with an algebraic formula ... well, not a formula that you can fit on one line, anyway.
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Pro poker players do this to some extent -- measure WAR not in one scenario, but in many.
- If a face card comes up next on the flop, my return is $0.70 per dollar on my bet.
- If an ace comes up, my return is $4.23.
- If a club comes up that is not a deuce or six, my return is $0.02.
- If scenario D comes up...
- If scenario E comes up ...
Then, of course, they've got to continue ...
- If a face card comes up next on the flop, that hits a 24% chance.
- If an ace comes up, that hits a 8% chance.
- If a club comes up that is not a deuce or six, that hits a 13% chance.
- If scenario D comes up...
- If scenario E comes up ...
Then they actually have to multiply all these, in their heads, in a few seconds. The best of them do this.
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To truly capture the value of a Tony Phillips or Ben Zobrist, you would need like 10,000 roster simulations with various injuries to positions, various levels of injury, various AAA players promoted, and so forth. James makes the statement that these 1,000 roster simulations would result in more Phillips-wins than you expect.
Not so many players are fast enough to play CF, and quick enough to play middle infield. Dustin Ackley is positioning himself to become one of baseball's three or four best multi-position players.
It's funny: in March, we all think of the #6 starter as being a concrete part of the lineup, but we don't really do that with a #10 player.
We also speak in terms of "stoploss" scenarios, one that sabes virtually ignore, but one which GM's focus on intently. The bottom line is that, having Dustin Ackley as a Phillips-, McLemore-level player, able to fill CF and 2B depending ... that value is not "sexy," is not something you can slam into a quick blog entry.
It's just a factor that tends to be found on playoff teams.
Comments
Blissed, I've seen Ackley several times in the minors over the past few weeks. He rolled through town with Tacoma and he looks... still. Calm. Talking to him his first couple of games back in the minors and he was placid and even. Now, he's ALWAYS that way which might be to his detriment, but he seems far more centered at the plate.
Before, he would swing REALLY hard but get nothing but air for all that bat-speed and supposed eye.
Now, he looks like he's taking BP. "Don't like that one." Bat doesn't move one inch. "Nope." Rests perfectly on his shoulder. "That one." And he takes a nice sharp swing, not an overswing but an easy swing with strong wrists, and goes back up the middle rather trying for pull power.
It's not that pull power isn't available to him, but he's not looking for it. He's looking to re-establish his walk-and-contact game, and trust that power will come. He looks good at the plate. Not a finished product, but good for re-establishing his baseline. Franklin will probably have more power than Ackley for their whole careers, but when Ackley starts punishing the gaps he'll have enough of his own, especially if he's playing a lot of CF.
I said he would hit like Mark Grace, and that's still the power profile I see for him. Some pull homers, but mostly a lot of gap shots and walks.
In CF that's still an all-world performer. Mark Grace LITE would be a great performer there. We'll see what Ackley can get to. .270/.350/.410 is basically what made Guti a minor celebrity (Along with his glove). That's gotta be in reach, right?
~G
I'm so thankful to have a first hand report. All most of us have to go on are the box scores. The lack of AAA power was a concern. If he has changed his approach a bit then I'm happy to let him have a go at CF. Before he was caught in between hitting for some power, being aggressive, working counts, just all mixed up. If he will stick with a patient approach and hit the darn ball to left field and just get on base that is all we need! No more bashing it into the ground to the right side of the infield :) The team is desperate for base runners, if he provides that we are another step closer to being a decent offense. Great stuff G, you the man!
That BP mode was under the surface, and it seems clear that he got wrapped around the axle, getting overcoached, and overthinkinking the strike zone...
Once the "paralysis by analysis" lifts, that talent is under there...
Mark Grace in CF would be quite a ballplayer. He was an All-Star just playing 1B.
Johnny Damon had a profile like that, .300 AVG with 60-70 walks, gap power, not a ton of SB's. I don't think there's a player like Damon currently in the game; Brett Gardner's a little modest. Perhaps Ackley has a few Damon years in him before Boras takes him to market.
Which is why a Tenbrink is much more valuable than a Bay.
...Tenbrink can get on base at the .330 clip that Bay can.