Seattle Sports Insider

Pitching Depth Chart

mmmmmm got any crushed red pepper? Maybe in the 9th inning?

Posted by

12/8/16

Dr. D loves spaghetti, for realz. If he had to eat it five times a week, from now on, he'd be great. Once per week he would demand spicy Italian sausage therewith, as they do at Olive Garden. :: slurp ::

He is also very comfortable with spaghetti against the wall in the lineup ... assuming, obviously, that he already HAS four 7 RC/27 players in the bank. He'd have been fine with pasta after the 3-4-5 hitters the 1927 Yankees had. Some things are just sabermetrically beyond inquiry.

Also, Dr. D is fine with rotation spaghetti against the wall after he's got James Paxton. He's fine with anything in the rotation after he's got James Paxton.

Slurv3 sez,

Seems like Dipoto is still looking for someone to slot into the middle of the rotation, but we actually have pitching depth. Does that (Chris Heston for a PTBNL) make us 10-11 deep yet?

I think so, yeh. :: wry smile :: Interestingly, the M's site depth chart has Miranda ahead of KKKKarns for #4-5 and it has Rob Whalen as the #6. JeDi has screamed from the rooftops that he's going to go grab an MLB(TM) starting pitcher -- the fall, falllll back plan is a Fister type on a late deal, but the reg'lar plan is a guy with 100 MLB starts and a .500 record plus. We figger.

Dr. D's rotation depth chart, just at a nodding glance, feel free to correct him:

....

(1) James Paxton

(2) King

(3) WBC-san (pencil him in for 17 starts before he blows a tire)

(4) Nate KKKarns (I'll take him as my #3, most teams, and not look back for a single second. Just build on a career arc for once, rather than Flavor of the Day)

(5) Some kinda Jason Hammel or Scott Kazmir type (OK, Kazmir himself moves north a couple of bullet levels here)

(6) Ariel Miranda (quite solidly encouraged by what the M's did with his delivery) (You did notice he had a 115 ERA+ last year)

(7) Chris Heston (Dr. D fancies him. IFF healthy with a 90 fatball rather than an 86 fatball)

(7a) Do wish the M's would give Tom Wilhemsen a chance to start, though. 95 MPH? 6'6" overhand? Big yakker? Third pitch?! What the deuce is the holdup here among 30 GM's?

(7b) Three words: Ben Gamel, LF and Mitch Haniger, RF. Three?! center fielders

(8) Rob Whalen is intriguing since his 90 FB cuts and sinks so much

State of the art saber: just make sure your fastball RPM is either high or low. Get it, got it, good

(9) Cody Martin (neatly fits this characterization of 'we're comfortable with him starting A PARTICULAR baseball game' shtick)

(10-11-12) All of the non-40 man guys like Max Povse, Andrew Moore, Ryan Yarborough, etc ... no need to even scrape the mayo jar for Joe Weiland, Dann Roach, Adrian Sampson, Bob Wolcott, et al

(13) Why does it feel like we're totally spacing out on somebody? Moe? Back me up here bro'.

....

So yeah. Personally would say that they're set for the 8-11 starters you'll need. Jolly good shew.

BABVA,

Dr. D

Blog:

Dr's Prognosis

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Chris Heston

Comments

We've got a Reeely Biig Shoooo....

Isn't that what Ed Sullivan used to say, each week? He had the Elvis/Beatles headliners and then Topo Gigio and Jose Jimenez came out, right? Even those guys were dang entertaining. The little mouse was a scrapper and Jimenez had a heck of a slider, didn't he?

We've got a bucketload of Topo Jimenez's from 6-11. Better than that, in fact; I'm convinced that Povse or Moore is about to become a #3-type, some time soon. The weakness in this rotation is actually in the risk of a Felix/Kuma arm explosion. Kuma's 16-12 year saw a career low in K's/9 while H's and BB's were up. Hits were way up, in fact. Hey, his OPS+ was 98. Felix has been a #3 type starter the past two seasons.

This in a world where all the Jones(Houston/Texas etc) have purchased several sexy new hot rods.

DiPoto has done a superlative job in adding quality depth all over the lot, but other than Segura (who might not quite be Jeter with the bat again) we've not added the hot rod.

Bringing an established #3 into the fold would be that kind of addition. I am very confident that Povse/Moore/Whalen/Heston gives us a mix and match 4/5, if needed. I'm very confident in Miranda, hopeful of Karns; Doc and I reverse roles there.

I am not confident that Paxton gives us 200 BMOC innings, but goodness knows he makes me feel all warm inside when he takes the mound. He did throw 170 innings (counting Tacoma) last year and that gives me hope. Is 50 the Over/Under number for Felix/Kuma starts? Or is it 45? 40? Yikes... That's my big worry. If we get 30 vintage-like Felix starts and just 10 from Kuma then 40 is doable. 20 and 20 is what concerns me.

We need an Odorizzi/Quintana. Gohara will likely have to be part of that swapping equation.

A quasi-headliner would be much nicer than Senor Wences to round out this team. For '17 and beyond, mind you.

Hey, you guys forgot one act

The June Taylor dancers!

(Here, complete with hula hoops..)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_gXTuIAMVM

Doc, triple kudos on the Wolcott reference. LOL

Wasn't that something? Beat the Red Sox home and away in his first two MLB starts.

Then Lou gives him the ball for the first game of the playoff series--and he wins again!?

Oh, for a little more of that kind of pitching karma this year...

I remember Wolcott...

...first game in Cleveland is when he pitched, right? I remember how, in the first inning, he loaded the bases with no one out and tightrope-walked his way out of the jam...then somehow pitched great...but the whole game, his cap was DRENCHED in flop-sweat...dude was TERRIFIED...LOL

Wolcott

But he was terrified of Sweet Lou, not the Indians batting order (Alomar, Belle, Manny....) That was a HOF managing job by Piniella!

Gutted!

My favorite Mariner got stripped away in today's Rule V draft (Austin Wilson.) I wish him well... I'm now a little bit more of a Cardinal fan than I was a few hours ago. Not only great person, outfielder and power hitter, but also a large investment walked out the door of the organization today. I hope Chuck Taylor is a superb acquistion. He certainly has large shoes to fill!

Oops

Found it.

Starting Pitching set to fall apart

The lineup and outfield defense looKS strong. The pen will be good. The starting pitching is shaky st best. We are relying on Felix who had dropped off considerably, am ancient Kuma who somehow got through last season okay despite running discouraging peripherals, and our ace is Paxton who more often than not in his career is on the DL

I would bet 2 of these 3 either are hurt a good chunk of the year or just simply ineffective

Dipoto needs to land a #3 somehow without giving up Tank or Lewis

Agreed

I think the winter meetings were very distressing for the front office.

The Sale deal--and especially the Eaton one--showed that if you want one of my proven major leaguers, you will give me exactly what I ask for in terms of prospects.

I'm thinking that even O'Neill + Gohara doesn't buy nearly as much as we'd like it to.

And as you point out (and as Churchill is now braying)...we really do need rotation improvement.

Sale/Seaver

For the past 5 seasons, beginning with their age 23 years, Chris Sale and Tom Seaver are pretty similar. Sale lags by just a bit, basically on Cy award and the fact that Seaver threw 80 more innings every year, which was a sign of the times and not anything Sale controls.

Sale has been in the top 5 or 6 in the Cy count each year. Seaver has a win, and a 7th, 2nd, and 5th. Sale K's about 10/9 and BB's 2. He has about a 1.065 WHI over that time. Seaver hd a 1.06 WHIP, K'ed 8 and BB'ed 2. Seaver's ERA+'s were 137, 165, 143, 194 and 115. Sales were 140, 137, 173, 114 and 120.

Now I'm not saying that Sale is Seaver's equal, he isn't (for a variety of reasons) but that in terms of value at that time, he wasn't far behind.

What do you think it would have taken to get Seaver away from the Mets after age 27? They would have missed out on two Cy's in three seasons....and a gabillion wins. that's why Sale cost a ton.

Inning eating Stud Hosses like those guys ALWAYS go for a lot. The '73 Rookie of the Year in the NL was Garry Matthews, so let's just say he was the best prospect the preceding year. If you offered the Mets Matthews after the '72 season, what else would you have had to give to get him? Al Bumbry was the AL Rookie of the year in '73. George Brett was 3rd in the AL voting in '74...so maybe HE was the best prospect in '72. Would the Mets have taken Brett AND Bumbry for Seaver?

But you don't have to fall far below a Seaver, say a Koosman...or to a #3 like Gary Gentry (quite Odorizzi like up to '72) that you can get a guy for a young arm or two...and a young bat.

I suppose a Quintana might cost you more because of the innings capacity....but an Orodizzi can be had for something less than Rumplestiltskin might demand. Why? There are plenty of fallback options from an Odorizzi: Fister...or one of the young arms the M's have, for example. Odorizzi was no more dominating at AA/AAA than Moore/Povse/Whalen...and he hasn't thrown a MLB No-No like Heston. He's a better bet....but he's not enough of a better bet to give away the farm.

So you proceed cautiously and don't give away the farm. And TBR understands that, too.

Prospects just aren't there

Outside of Diaz, Tank, and Lewis there is simply nothing to deal worth a darn.

People act like Gohara has strong value. He doesn't. He's a 3rd or 4th piece in a deal.

All the 4th and 5th starters aren't worth much at this point.

He's gotta figure out a way to get a SP. I don't know how he's gonna do it though.

Trade

You aren't getting Odorrizzi without giving up Tank..they aren't gonna take a bunch of back end rotation prospects

Of course you can.

Here are 5 AA lines: One of them is Odorizzi, 4 are Whalen/Povse/Moore/Altavilla (who started in A ball): Which is which? No cheating.

#1: 1.1 WHIP 6.4 H/9 3.5 BB/9 10.3 K/9

#2: 1.2-7.7-3.3-8.3

#3: 1.0-8-1.5-6.1

#4 1.2-9-1.5-7.1

#5: 1.2-8-2.9-8.2

Say you offered two of those Mariner guys, ready for prime time playing, AND Lewis. Or Gohara? Were you TBR, and going nowhere, you wouldn't take it? Shich doesn't say that you might not get outbid....but there are any number of trade deals to get a guy like Odorizzi that don't include Tank. And that don't break the bank.

Odorizzi

The value of Whalen and Povse was Alex Jackson..a busted a ball prospect...Alex Jackson could have landed Odorizzi?

I don't want to give up Lewis. He is our best prospect if he recovers from the knee. We have two very good prospects and Diaz...we have to give up 1 to bring back Odorizzi..the rest of that stuff isn't gonna work

Just because the Braves were stupid...

...doesn't mean the Rays are also stupid.

Or...if you want to be more charitable...just because the Braves think very highly of Alex Jackson doesn't mean the Rays would have. But they might think highly over Povse.

Not a question of stupid

...but where the market's at.

Chris Sale deseved to return a boatload.

But Eaton? Man, that was a haul for the White Sox.

Or, in other words, it doesn't look like prospects are buying as much as many suspected.

In the last five years the

In the last five years the competence of the average GM has gone up significantly. I can't think of a single GM in baseball that I can point out that is being taken advantage of on a regular basis by other GMs.

Our top guys are not highly rated guys, either than Lewis (who I also wouldn't want to sell low on). And we're in a seller's market for SP.