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Hey Sandy...you buying in yet? 35 IP, 23 H, 5 BB, 16 K, 0 HR, 5 ER...leading the AL in ERA and WHIP. :)
Doug Fister and Jo-El, 2
=== Spin Rate ===
Also impressive is the RPM that Fister gets relative to these other pitchers:
- 2,200 - Ryan Rowland-Smith
- 2,500 - Ian Snell (with the 4-seamer that generates less air resistance)
- 2,250 - Jason Vargas
- 2,500 - Doug Fister
- 2,100 - Joel Pineiro (on the "sinker")
In other words, Fister is getting 15% more hair on his 2-seam fastball than RRS and Vargas are -- and 20% more spin RPM than super-swerveballer Joel Pineiro is. In fact, Doug Fister is getting as much spin on his 2-seamer as other pitchers get on their 4-seamers.
It's not hard to guess the reason. Assuming that the 6'8" Fister has longer fingers, the leverage is higher as he snaps his wrist.
In other words, he just has the hands to snap off super-tight-spin two-seamers that bend like Nintendo pitches. In 2009, his horizontal break was also 10.5 inches and his RPM was even higher (2515) than it is this year.
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=== Outside Corner, Inside Corner ===
Most pitchers "jam" righties with their two-seamers. Fister, almost uniquely, throws it to the outside, where it acts like a lefty "backdoor" slider. (A hitter gave up on Randy Johnson's slider as a ball outside, whereupon it suddenly broke through the back door for a called strike.)
Take a look at Fister's 2010 strike zone chart compared to Ian Snell's.
Count the % of pitches above +2 feet and below -2 feet, for example. Vargas' and Rowland-Smith's look a lot more like Snell's than they look like Fister's.
Notice also how many green "ball" ripoffs that Fister is getting at the moment -- far more than Vargas, RRS, or Snell. Imagine if you were a control pitcher getting jobbed by the umps -- and your ERA was 1.65. What happens when the umps start buying into Fister's command and he gets more calls than the average pitcher?
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=== Ramifications ===
In his first four starts of 2010, Fister's vaunted changeup has been gone, poof, up in smoke. He's got a -1.56 run value on it, and that's about what it looks like when he throws it. No surprise that he's lost the feel for it.
On the other hand, for whatever reason, his overhand change-curve is now biting hard, and he's also come up with a brand-new 84 mph two-plane slider that has embarrassed some people.
..............
The best part of this study, for me, was the realization of what this backdoor-slider will do against lefties. Felix, for a while, almost had to stop throwing his 2-seam to LH -- because this pitch breaks right onto the barrel of the bat where lefties crush it. Dave Allen explained all this.
But! Fister, strangely, apparently throws this pitch to break back and just catch the inside corner on lefties. In fact, lefties are slugging only .311 on Fister this year, despite the fact that he never walks them (only 2 walks in 50 PA's).
.................
There are two Fisters: the 2009 Japanese archetype, and the 2010 Joel simulator. As with Pineiro, the catchers are delighted to get weak contact, AB after AB, on this laser-guided swerveballs. As with Pineiro, you are not going to see 6+ strikeout rates (if ever) until he starts throwing offspeed with two strikes.
Which is fine. For now, they (and SSI) are happy to ride this Joel-simulator wave until it hits the beach.
Comments
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Do I believe the Fister we've seen if "for real?" Not in a million years. Go show me a 0.0 HR/9 pitcher to comp him to, and I'll consider I'm in error.
But, the Doc gave me reason to believe there is a possibility that Fister actually made a transition which has remedied the H/9 debacle that he was in the minors -- but did so late enough in AAA that it doesn't show up in the stats.
So, I am open to the concept that Fister's upside might well be Washburn or Buehrle.
The problem here is that waaaay too much of Fister's 2010 performance is clearly out-of-bounds in terms of sustainability. His BABIP was .241 headed into his 3-hit 3-K in 8-inning effort -- meaning it just got even better.
Having been one of the Washburn supporters - who noted Washburn had PROVEN an ability to beat the BABIP god for a decade - meaning he had a SKILL at doing it - I clearly have an open mind to that possibility. But Washburn, the kind of BABIP suppression -- managed a .275 for his career -- (and likely had above-average defenses behind him in more than half his seasons -- PCA probably has a better read on that than I).
But, both Buehrle and Washburn had 5.3 K/9 rates. Fister is a full K under that at the moment. (But, I would agree that ticking that K-rate up above 5 isn't implausible).
At this point, there is zero doubt hitters are clueless against his 'slop', (for lack of a better word).
The danger in getting too high on Fister is that his profile doesn't comp well with ANYBODY - (not when you include the H/9 numbers). So, he's something of an anomaly. The one thing I'd caution about is that when you look at early career comps for guys like Buerhle and Washburn, you see a lot of washouts - like HoRam - Steve Avery - Dontrelle -- guys that had a great flash - followed by horrendous burn-outs. (Silva would apply, also).
I'm enjoying the ride - and wish him no ill will. But, ANY pitcher who is beating team DER by 40 points or more is gonna have to show me multiple YEARS of such behavior before I slide him over into the 'skill' category in regards to BABIP results.
Before getting too overjoyed - I'd consider that Carlos Silva currently has a 6/21 BB/K split with a 2.90 ERA and only 25 hits in 31 innings. The diff between the two at this moment is Silva has allowed 4 HRs and Fister none. Of course, Silva is fanning almost 2 extra batters per 9 at the moment.
Honestly, if I had to predict - I'd expect a good first half for Fister - and a second half collapse. When the offenses and air get warm - how many flies leave the park will be critical -- and how does he respond when the opponent is getting 8 hits in 6 innings, instead of 3.
The Doc's analysis gives me hope that the H and HR issues won't be as large as I originally imagined. But, the scenario that I fear the most is that he pitches well enough for long enough - that when the opposition DOES adjust - and (if) he starts stringing bad outings together -- how long does the club stick with him?
Honestly - how large is the gulf between say - Washburn and Jaku? It's a much thinner margin than most believe.
The odd thing is that my personal 'hero' pitcher is Maddux -- the guy I view as the ultimate combination of control and guile with limited 'stuff'. My belief with Fister is that he reached the major without the 'minimum' skill needed to survive. I'm willing to consider I 'might' have been wrong in that assessment. But, I could still be right - even if he puts together 2-3 good months -- if he only has 4-K 'stuff' -- even if he sustains sub-2 walk rates, it may not be enough.
The big plus for him is he's got a Class A defense - and a pitcher-friendly park going for him. So, perhaps he'll have time to work through the rough patches without hurting the team badly and come out the other side as a viable Washburn clone. That's best case.
Worst case is when he starts getting hit, the club sticks with him too long waiting for Jaku to turn back into Buehrle again.
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Fister is clearly on a good streak right now with his command.
Still, I'm not fulling buying in yet. Livan Hernandez currently has a 0.87 ERA.
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...trust me...I am accutely aware of his lack of swings and misses and his extreme BABIP luck...he's as hot as I've ever seen a pitcher get, and it's kind of hilarious to watch...I'll take it. But I am starting to believe that a large portion of his hit rate problems was bad synergy between him and his crappy minor league defenses.