Thanks for linking to us, and glad you enjoyed the article. I've been reading your stuff for a few years now, and always enjoy it. Our blog is pretty new and started mostly as a way for my brother and brother-in-law and me to just talk sports, but it's been a lot of fun and I'm glad you found us.
I knew going into the post that going player by player isn't necessarily the intended use for the question, but I was curious to see how they graded out anyway. There are so many different permutations a roster can take with the addition or loss of a single player. I think a Gonzalez or similar bat makes everyone else look significantly better, of course, and could see them quickly turning into a powerhouse with that kind of add.
The current roster is interesting. They have Ichiro and Figgins, who should be on-base and dangerous all year, then Bradley, Guti and Lopez who can be reasonably counted on and might really breakout. Then you have a bunch of guys who could do anything. It's a little like the rotation, actually. My earlier thought was that one or two bad performances could doom them, but now I'm not so sure. If you lose Ichi or Figgins, or if all three of those next tier guys fall apart, you're in trouble. Otherwise, I bet they can mix and match enough to stay competitive, and a few guys (Moore, in particular) might surprise.
=== Good Guys Wear Teal ===
Good Guy Sports has this article up, asking one of SSI's favorite questions, and doing the legwork for all of us. Kewl read, guys.
One thing that SSI has never exactly clarified (and that the authors at GGS don't emphasize one way or other) is, when Bill James asks "Can you win your next pennant with this player?," of course he's not asking it expecting to go 17-for-17 down the roster.
CYWYNPWTP, in baseball, is not like spinning a bike-combo lock, where you need to get six numbers right before you can ride. Nobody has the player they want at every position. The Red Sox, in 2009, had three infielders they can't win their next pennant with, the ones at C, SS, and 3B.
..........
James asks this question primarily to identify .500, or <.500 teams="" that="" are="" going="" in="" the="" wrong="" direction.=""> There are times you'll run down this list for, say, the San Diego Padres or New York Mets, and only one or two guys will get a yes.
That's when you know that the GM committee is playing cover-your-tail with the fans. If you're not winning, that's all right, provided that you intend to win.
When the Mariners lost 93 games in 2005, and then insisted on MLB(TM) retreads like Carl Everett, Jarrod Washburn, Jose Vidro and Miguel Batista, that's where the question really comes in handy. When you're losing 90 and you trade for Horacio Ramirez, that's when "Can You Win Your Next Pennant With This Player" clarifies everything.
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=== Sacre Bleu, Is It That Good? ===
The running count with the M's is fine, but there's an even bigger context. In the most fundamental sense, the 2009-10 Mariners rock CYWYNPWTP?'s world:
- They've re-signed Felix for five years. I think Felix is a guy you could win your next pennant with, but I'll have to check the FIP's.
- They buried their firstborn under the threshhold for Cliff Lee.
- They have an Erik Bedard derringer in their left sleeve for forehead-close arguments in October.
- They've locked up their most dynamic young club-controls player, Guti. You sure as Legolas-shootin' can win your next pennant with Franklin Gutierrez playing CF.
- They are identifying blue-chippers (Saunders, Tui, Moore) and making them win jobs.
- They sold their second-born into Egypt to get the best playoff setup man since Hoyt Wilhelm set himself up.
- They gave 5 years, not 3, so that their own club (and not Anaheim's) could win their next pennant with Chone Figgins.
- They've identified a Manly-Man young catcher they will cheerfully bet their black chips on.
GGS's targeting systems are dead on. To Good Guys' lasting shame, I'll offer that I agreed with them on 24-for-27 of their assessments. (If you want to kill another five minutes before work this morning, guess which three? I'll give you one of the quibbles: "rest of the bullpen." There were only two others, and "rest of the bullpen" won't be on the final, anyway.)
We have only to add that a few players here and there, who aren't ideal, that isn't anything to worry M's fans. James' CYWYNPWTP judges the 2010 Mariners as benignly as would Galadriel. Your 2010 Mariners have a dynamic young team, loaded with glittering Stars and hungry, talented young Scrubs.
James' test, "Can you win your next pennant with this player," is one that Jack Zduriencik aces every time he flips open the blue book. He'll ace it, again, when he trades for a first baseman.
Yeah baby,
Dr D
Comments
...I did something similar for the Mariners back in 2006, 2007 and 2008...and in 2008, I compared the Mariner roster to the moribund Washington Nationals to demonstrate how bad things could REALLY get vs. how bad they were for the Ms even then.
Can you win your next pennant with this player?
I have only 6 guys out of the 33 or so most likely to get significant playing time in 2010 that I say an unequivocal no to and perhaps another 6 that I'm on the fence about.
The NO players would be Casey Kotchman, Sean White, Jack Wilson (sorry, Jack...I love the attitude, but your legs can't handle the job anymore), Jack Hannahan, Josh Bard, and Garrett Olsen. The MAYBE players would include Ken Griffey Jr., Eric Byrnes, Ryan Langerhans, Jason Vargas, bullpen fillers and Ian Snell. The rest are all YESes in my book. That includes guys like Gonnie Garko (I have a strong feeling that he's going to have a very nice year for the Mariners and gradually steal all of Kotchman's playing time), Adam Moore, Rob Johnson, Matt Tuiasosopo, Michael Saunders (at least there's significant upside here, even though he looked YOOOGLY last season), Doug Fister, Chad Cordero (the scouting reports sound encouraging for him), Erik Bedard (some are concerned about injuries preventing him from ever being right again...I am not)...I like the guys on the fringes of our roster...a LOT. I can't remember a Mariners team that had this many options to keep the club mobile and successful.
Right, was not trying to 'correct' or edit your analysis - just moshing off it a bit. :- ) But it would have been mondo tough to nitpick anyhow ...
On Bradley, Gutierrez and Lopez, would agree, there is some definite upside there. And it's part of the fact that Zduriencik is secure enough to seek dynamic players, as opposed to safe-feeling MLB(TM) players with well-known production levels and zero upside.
Keep it comin' Matthew. With your permission we'll hip-check off GGS here and there.
Gonnie was one of my zigs as well off the 24-for-27 line. Garko's got some latent energy there, especially in a (n important) role.
Why, what did you hear about the meatball Cordero?
See second half of this post: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/pitching-7-2-2
And here: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2010/03/catching_up_wi...
"Q. How close are you now to being all the way back?
A. I think I'm pretty much there. I pitched on Friday and they said I was at 87-88 [mph] consistently and I touched 89 once or twice. So I'm pretty much almost there. I feel like my change up is better than it's ever been, and so is my slider. And location-wise, it's like I never left."
Two one-inning outings so far, and 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB.
He coasted into the majors on pure talent, then got lazy and sloppy and overweight, and then got hurt because of it. Now he's trying to get back. The first few days of camp, Wak was really talking him up.
No one is asking him to be a beast, only better than Ricky Orta or the like.
He was a yes on my list not because I expect him to be an ace set-up man...but because I expect him to be a better fit for this team than guys like Sean White and Jason Vargas and Garrett Olsen...all we need for Cordero is good command and for him to keep the ball in the yard. You do that, as a middle reliever, and run 60 innings of 4.00 ERA, you're fine with me.
No problem, didn't take it that way at all. You're welcome to discuss our stuff anytime!