Chone: Safeco and $/WAR

Mojo on Chone:

Before everyone jumps on board with the plan of trading one of the Mariners best hitters for a worse one, consider the case against...

If we cannot hear the case against, we wither and die.  You da man, mojo.

HOB-JECTION though right off the bat:  Figgins is certainly a better hitter than most of the Mariners. 

But if the Mariners had five starting pitchers with ERA's of 5.25, 5.50, 5.75, 6.00, and 6.25 ... would I resist the idea of trading the 5.50 ERA pitcher to free up his slot?

.......

That Kouzmanoff is a 6.00 ERA guy, in this analogy, is another (and interesting) point.  Right now, we'll avoid distracting from the brilliance of our own hob-jection, though.

........

1. There is no Safeco Effect for Chone Figgins.  His game of putting up disciplined at bats, and drawing walks and hits, works here, as demonstrated by his good second half.  Chone, unlike the other guy, has upside.  He could reach a .400 OBP again.  Perhaps if the Mariners had a youth renaissance and things go well, he might.

Cheerfully agreed that in the abstract, Figgins should be a Safeco-Flouter.

A guy whose game is built on walks, is a guy who needs seeerrrrrrrious consideration for Safeco airtime.  Figgins is lefthanded* too.

Whether Figgins himself -- among that population of ML hitters who are LH and who BB a lot -- is a good fit for Safeco, is another question...

...............

Chone's OPS+'s:

  • 97 - his career OPS+
  • 84 - his OPS+ last season
  • 93 - his OPS+ on the road
  • 69 - his OPS+ in Safeco

Figgins looked horrible to me, batting in Safeco.  My theory is that he's completely incapable of hitting for extra bases there, and so why throw him a ball?  ... his BB's went down from 101 to 74.

That's prime facie.  I read it on the 'net. 

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2. Chone's salary is not excessive.  He makes 8-9 million, and he's worth every penny.  Who were the M's going to sign with an extra $3 million dollars?

HOB-jection:  Fangraphs had him at $2.4M last season, based on his being worth exactly +6 runs more than a replacement level player.

Figgins does that, he's deadwood and he's taking up 10% of our payroll.

.............

Quibbles aside... the broad point, I'll cheerfully concede.  If Figgins rebounds to 2008 levels, he's a 30-run player and he's worth $12 mill.

I personally am very concerned that Figgins' game is not going to work in Safeco, but objectively speaking, if you think Figgins can OBP .370 and play good 3B, he's worth $8-9 mill, sure.

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Comments

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By the way, Klat has a new feature, in which posts-in-series will be collected under a banner, for our convenience.
The title post isn't actually seen on the front page or in the sidebar; if you click the "see posts" hyperlink you're taken to the caramel center of the Milky Way bar and view a post that is accessible only to you.  You being a person who can navigate the internet. 
Here is the article that, previously, would have been the first post in a 3-post series that had the little "next" hyperlinks at bottom.  Now you find it by accessing the "See other posts" wormhole.
Big plus here is that, three months down the line, a person surfing the archive will have a much easier time scanning through the entire set of posts that related to a particular subject.  SSI is notorious for 9-part series and if you weren't surfing same day, you could easily wipe your surfboard out in the tube...
AFAIK this is klat's invention, though could be wrong... personally, I looov eeet...

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misterjonez's picture

It's an interesting and useful feature, one that I've often thought was absolutely essential..but apparently I was alone, since this is one of the first places I've seen it.  I mean, everyone can paste hyperlinks into their articles, but a real, threaded function that connects the posts in its own obvious way is totally cool.

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