When the Cards drafted Prince Albert in Round 13, did their scouts know what they had? (rhetorical question)...
When they jumped him from A+ to the bigs, they may have had an inkling then.
Catricala is obviously a couple of years older (and doesn't have the eye) than our referenced prototype for rotational leveraged swings, but if he was a mini-version, how would you know and what signs would you see?
One thing you would see is the combination right elbow tuck and cat-quick knee clearance as pointed out above. You might see 80 XBH in a season, while seeing fresh pitching. You would see the ability to pound a pitch in a surprising direction because the bat-speed isn't generated through sheer strength, but through roational speed. He can be early or late and still cause considerable damage.
If - a big if - Pujols-lite (with less walks) is coming through the pipeline, my hunch is it would look a lot like this.
Cheers.
So the M's website has Catricala's two-run jack on vid. What does the dark room tell us? You be th' judge.
First of all, let's establish the fact that most major league hitters draw the golf club back, before they swing it forward. Here is the initial load on a a home run by Mighty Joe Young:
le you run into one.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
When one follows future stars by MiLB stats alone, prospects can begin to stand out, but you often build an image based on the what someone with that name would stereotypically look like. Thus, I thought Vinnie the Cat was a slightly below average height, stocky over-achiever and his statistically proven power was unlikely to translate.
I was wrong. He looks like a Right-handed Olerud.
MLBN moved the game to the 11 PM slot for no reason, so it was a late night. Some thoughts:
- Saunders has batspeed again. I mean, legit batspeed. He hammered some balls, no floating allowed. I think he studied Carp. He also is covering ground with authority out there in the OF. Whatever sports coach he went to looks like he did a good job in Round 1 of this prize fight. It wasn't a scrub out there for the first couple innings, it was Jered Weaver. Felt like a real game, and Saunders looked like a real player.
- Figgins is counting on people to not throw him strikes. As long as he can fight off stuff in the zone he might be able to contribute.
- Montero does indeed muscle it to oppo. He got a lot of muscle, though. There won't be anything wrong with his pull power either.
- Seager was too eager at the plate, but he made a NICE diving grab at 3B, the sort of thing that he'd be required to do as a third baseman.
- Brad Miller's bat positioning has been changed since college. Dunno if that was his choice or ours but while he holds his hands high still he's got the bat more Ackley-like with the head pointed toward the field instead of held high like a torch. Should help his power. Immediate thought: we're planning on having him play 3B.
- Robinson brought his speed to bear. Couldn't see much about his swing, since he (badly) bunted the first hit for a sacrifice/throwing error by a 7-foot pitcher (!) and swung at the first pitch in his next AB for a single, but his speed affected both times on base, and it was nice to see him run.
- Catricala. Ohhh, Catricala. This is the guy I saw in low-A, but they've simplified his swing and hands (if possible) even MORE in AA. He missed another HR by about a quarter inch of ball-contact on his first AB. It went a mile in the air, got held up by the incoming stiff breeze (still there on his HR to deep CF, btw) and still made it to the deep OF. He can HIT. Once he holds up on low stuff I dunno what you're gonna do against him - other than make him field a lot of hot shots at the corner and hope to score more against his glove than he does against your pitching.
- Beavan got hammered. He should have given up several runs. Everything was a lined shot. He got some Ks with off-speed stuff but his "fastball" was getting crushed. Danger Will Robinson...
- Furbush looked like the pen guy he should be. Think he'll fit in fine there permanently.
- Robles looked good. He lost weight by working out. He's just a short, muscular dude now with a trim (for him) waist. His fastball was back and he was throwing it high (as is his wont) but the change loooked pretty just floating in there. He had a little trouble keeping his heater in the zone but he wasn't bouncing balls in the dirt or anything. He looks like he's back, which is great news for our post-League bullpen later this year. We got another option.
All in all, a game we dominated start to finish - as we should have, having played a week's more games and getting to camp far earlier. Took us a while to break through on the scoreboard, but we got there. Ackley looked good, Carp had his swing if not the contact (and had a strong throw from LF to 1B to finish a double play) , Jaso's "come get some" crouch at the plate still makes me laugh, and he will NOT swing unless he likes the pitch. There's a reason he gets on base that much.
A good day. All the guys I had question marks on showed me at least one positive thing.
If this was our team I'd feel better than I did last season about this offense in March - and this lineup didn't include two of our MOTO hitters.
Bring on the season.
~G
Assuming we're all seeing the same things that Z was so excited about last week...assuming Cat is going to be a mini-Gar hitting .300/.360/.480 right out of the chute...what is the most likely trajectory for his MLB arrival?
Last year, the Mariners called Ackley up in mid June. I'd say that sounds about right here as well. In the meantime, the Mariners doubtlessly feel they owe Kawasaki and Ryan a hard look at short until Ryan's body gives out and/or until both of them prove they can't hit .260 in the big leagues or until both of them are proving they're worse options than Figgins/Seager at short.
I expect we'll start the year with Seager at third and Ryan/Kawasaki at short with Figgins stealing some time at both spots and in CF, but by the end of May, the pressure will be on to switch to Catricala at third, Seager/Kawasaki at short, Figgins reduced to UTL. Meanwhile...you've been prudent and delayed the Cat's arb clock as a nice side benefit and given him time to work on his play at third in AAA.
Doc,
Cool, I did something right. Before I read much of you analysis I watched the Catricala video, clicking back and forth, stop and go. I noticed that his 'load" sequence is down, into a slight dip where he loads up from. Watch Tiger's swing in his prime...and Slammin' Sammy Snead's, they load by dropping into the ball. That slight dip, btw, allows for the hips to really explode through the zone.
His bat going from parallal to the ground, just prior to the pitch release, to perpendicular creates load as well.
Cat's back elbow tucked into his belt, and his hips fired, creates "lag" (in the golf parlance)....and lag creates speed. Watch Bubba Watson to get the idea.
Some swingers need movement to create rhythm and speed. Not so Catricala, evidently. Less movement means less loss of rhythm, btw. And I think that means he stays "on the ball" more than your average bear.
Golf and hitting aren't exactly the same thing. But no teaching pro, worth a hoot, is going to look at Cat's move and say, "You know, we need to tweak this."
Man, get out of his way and let him hit.
I'ld be lying if I wasn't thinking that the M's may be thinking about an offense first-youth infused left side of the infield.
Right now, we ain't bad.
moe
Ackley's time at AAA wasn't spent there to improve any part of his game. He was there to show that he can perform at a high level with consistancy, which he did.
Catricala's time at AAA is quite a bit different. He HAS to improve his defense at 3rd, and improve it dramatically.
If Catricala doesn't improve his defense at 3rd, then he HAS to be moved to the outfield, and from there he is blocked from being promoted. The best scenario for Catricala to be promoted to the MLB level while playing in the outfield is if one of the season starters goes down with an injury or has epically bad performance at the plate.
Is that something that we want to see?
Don't be surprised if Catricala doesn't make it to the MLB level until September for a cup of joe.
Beavan was getting absolutely torched out there...he's a major FIZZLER IMHO...but I agree with pretty much the entire rest of your analysis with the possible exception of Figgins. The Angels' broadcasters were all over Figgins, saying he was being way too passive at the plate, barely managing to foul off pitches that most hitters would turn on because he was praying for walks etc. That slop works in ST but in the regular season, they're going to knock the bat out of his puny little hands and he's going to hit .200
And he was playing it well enough after 3 months that it wasn't an issue. Vinnie's played 3rd since HS. On the one hand, that makes you say, "man, he'll NEVER get better." And on the other hand, all the tools to do so should be there. He wasn't a terrible defensive 3B in college.
Vinnie's spent all his energy turning that swing into a thing of beauty.
Now he needs to stop uglying up the field. He doesn't need to be great. Was Jeter great at SS his first decade there? No.
But he kept working on it and got it to a non-sucky level while his bat made him a HOFer.
You don't keep an All-Star bat in the minors because of his glove. You just make sure you have a late-inning defensive replacement available, let him DH some...keep his glove damage to a minimum and let him swing the bat a lot.
What we're doing with Montero, basically.
How many guys can share DH? We're about to find out, if Vinnie keeps hitting like this.
I don't think Vinnie will be up until June, but ANY tanking by Chone early in the year will make it a really easy call (assuming Seager isn't demolishing the league as our starting 3B at that time).
Player 1: .900 fielding, 2.54 RF
Player 2: .918 fielding, 2.51 RF
Player 2 is Catricala at 3B. Player 1 is Aramis Ramirez in the minors, ages 18-22. He's only EVER played the field at 3B, and his career MLB line is .954 fielding and a 2.43 RF. Bad...but survivable. He's a 4 WAR offensive player, and IMO defense is over-rated.
But you can get better in the pros in the field - and if you're a 4 WAR offensive player you'd better plan on it. Maybe Vinnie's like Alex Gordon and he won't be able to focus at the plate with all his worries about the field, so they'll need to move him to LF so he can focus on hitting.
I haven't seen that yet, but we'll certainly find out. At this point, though, I'd be shoehorning him into the hot corner even if it's a tight fit.
~G
ALWAYS interested to hear a golfer's comments on a baseball player's swing. ::cpoints::
.........
BTW you heard Wedge refer to Catricala getting "tall" in the batter's box; ever see a PGA golfer crouch? IF you can make it work, the "stiff front side" and Olerud-tall swingthrough will ---> definitely give PGA-type tension, stretch, and ... distance.
Gotta run ... keep it comin' bwanas...
I forgot sarcasm font. ;) When I said he was praying to not have strikes thrown, I meant that he'd be getting on base by fighting off hittable pitches and hoping the pitcher threw 4 balls in the meantime.
It's like watching Jose Vidro his last year with us. I dunno - it's possible he can make that work. I've never liked Chone's bat, but his eye and his legs have gotten him far in this league.
But hoping for the other guy to screw up is not how I like to lead off every game. I don't think we'll be rolling with Chone past the middle of the year.
~G
There isn't much more a prospect could do to endear himself to the Mariners and the fans than to beat the Angels with a two-run bomb. (Except strike out 21 Angels in a game) Dude would be worth a roster spot if all he did was beat the Angels in close games.
It gets you dreaming:
Maybe this is the year that the Mariners are going to cheat the Angels out of their glory before Pujols gets old and the wheels fall off. Maybe after this year, someone will write a book about Zduriencik called "Scout Ball, the art of winning an unfair game old school". Maybe people will start talking about the Mariners the way they talk about the Rays and Nationals. Young teams that are going places. Maybe this is the year we talk about every year around this time.
's what I was thinking Russ. If you *were* going to come up with a .550 SLG mystery man -- let's say Edgar Martinez -- isn't this about what you'd see coming over the hill?
Not that Catricala, or even Ackley for that matter, is a done deal, paid-and-shipped, but he is gifted...
Is there any .500 SLGger who is currently in the majors, who's going to leave the majors for any reason?
Don't know whether Catricala DH's on days Montero catches, or what they do, but if he's a cleanup hitter then he's a cleanup hitter. The rest of it subordinates.
.........
I definitely hear you, Lonnie. They've got to do something about the *possibility* of a train wreck with the glove.
Maybe that something is DH or DH/LF/3B/1B or whatever. In the best case, that something is for him to be a -10 runs third baseman.
And if one was going to, then this is what it would look like on March 10. :- ) Good stuff Mojician. (and sorry Russter!)
In that movie, Ackley and Montero reprise the roles of the 1975 rookies Fred Lynn and Jim Rice, don't they?
They're *talking* like the most likely trajectory is that he's a Mariner right now :- )
...........
For the generic template minor leaguer, Catricala would follow up his 250 PA's in AA with a season in AAA.
They treated Edgar as a generic template minor leaguer, and they added two years extra in the bushes, just to be sure they weren't doing anything rash.
Agree. The name and the numbers create a totally different visual.
Last year we saw the side angles, the Nick Franklin-style stretch between hands and front foot, but even that didn't really convey the whole idea as you get it from the CF camera.
Guy looks like .350 standing still :- )
Why these aren't front-page articles, I dunno, but will be only too glad to put the 5-finger discount on it.
Because 1B is kinda taken. He's never played third in his career, and the Angels announcers are already talking about the bunts he's gonna see playing the position and how ugly it could be.
Mark Trumbo is Alex Liddi without as much grace. He doesn't walk at all but has some serious power, so they're willing to punt the defense to put him in the field some at third. How much?
"We're not going to be afraid to put him there, but if you had a guy who was not adequate at a position, you could still play him there if the spray chart gave you a probability that there's not enough action there to cause anything," Scioscia said.
Based on crude analytics, that seems to mean Trumbo is quite likely to play third when Jered Weaver is pitching and doubtful for starts made by Jerome Williams or C.J. Wilson. Especially Wilson.
So even if he's terrible, he can still be out there when he's gonna see two hits a game or less. No big, says the Angels. We can protect him in order to get that kind of lumber in the lineup.
What kind of lumber?
Trumbo, minor league career: .275/.330/.474/.804, .4 eye. Trumbo is Liddi minus 50 Ks or so and a few walks. If Liddi struck out like Trumbo I wouldn't even question playing him at third. If it was him or Figgins as the only two 3B left on this earth for us to choose from, it's definitely Liddi. But we have options.
You know what Catricala hits, right? .322/.397/.596/.933 with a .55 eye. Through age 22. He's at a different level. More power than Liddi and Trumbo (2nd in the minors in XBH last year), 45 points of batting average, and his glove isn't gonna be WORSE at 3rd than Trumbo's.
Ya play him unless he catches every grounder with his face.
~G
And I don't think Zduriencik or even Lincoln are that stupid as to repeat leaving Gar down in AAA for 3 years and wasting two years of batting title runs. :)
I think we're worried too much about Cat's 3B glove...I think he can pull a Ryan Braun for a couple of years until an OF slot opens up (drop him in RF in 2013 when Ichiro retires?)...especially if they let him work on his D in AAA for a coupla months to be satisfied that they've done their due diligence.
He has experience there (primarily a 3B in the minors, still had a bad .935 fielding %). In the majors? A better fielder (.967). How do all these bad, slow 3B keep getting better in the majors? Is it because they get comfortable? Because the have better teaching?
Because the pitching is better so guys aren't hammering slop pitches at 110 MPH back at the third baseman?
Whatever it is, the contending teams don't seem to care as much. They want the lumber and they'll deal with the gloves. Will it cost them in a Bill Buckner moment when it counts?
Maybe. But ya gotta get to the bracket before bad D can cost you a series.
Boston, Detroit (with Miggy Cabrera), LAAAAA...if they have a bat that can fit at 3rd they're making it fit. Because you can never have too much offense...
And defense is over-rated.
I thought we would have proven that with our all-D, no-hit (and therefore worthless) lineups.
Your pitcher is your defense. If you have pitch-to-contact guys then defense becomes more important. If the only function of the guys behind the pitcher is to catch lazy flies or fling 3-hopped grounders to 1st base, then you can drop the importance of the glove.
Nick Franklin was kicking the ball all over the field the other day. What did Hultzen do with the bases loaded from a couple of errors?
He struck out 2 guys and walked off the mound.
Who needs fielders? The biggest weapon against hitters is on the mound.
Catricala will have to hit well and often if his glove is a stone, but I just don't see it as that. ML average fielding at 3rd is what, .955 or so? Vinnie just needs to stay within shouting distance of that.
Because the teams in the AL that we'll be fighting with for playoff slots have no problem dropping that 3B fielding average in order to increase the positional contributions offensively, and we'd better find a way to follow suit.
~G
Hey,
This team (recently) sold their offensive soul to get defense on the field (maybe they were just buying the undervalued Moneyball guys) and look how that turned out.
If Catricala hits like he showing right now, he's a Mariner before June. Maybe WAY before.
Gift is gift, man. Talent trumps all. Nobody told Mozart he couldn't play in Vienna because he was not yet seasoned enough.
Harmon Killebrew played 3B, for heaven's sake. Nobody whimpered about his defense, as he was mashing balls and walls.
Ditto Richie Allen. Ditto Bob Horner. Just plain ditto....
Right now, it appears that Chone can't carry Vinnie's jock. If that continues for the rest of the month, there is no choice to make.
moe
Jim Thome's MiLB record -> .923 fielding, 2.59 RF (age 18-22)
close enough?
...there is a big hole in your argument. Both the Angels and Red Sox have offenses that by and large can absorb the body-blows that errors can be.
Another thing is that it is a falacy to think that an error is an error. Errors commited at different locations on the field can be minor or devastating. A throwing error by a shortstop or 2nd baseman can at times be a 2-base error. A throwing error by the 3rd baseman is almost always a 2-base error.
A groundball booted by the short-stop or 2nd baseman usually means the runner is safe at first. A booted ball by the 3rd baseman usually means there is now a runner on 2nd.
Don't get me wrong, I really want to see the Cat get his shot, but right now I HAVE to put a higher premium on defense at 3rd with this team.
Lonnie
...don't let it swing as far to the offensive side.
because they WILL play large humans at third.
We tried going all-in with defense and watched a funeral pyre of epic proportions on offense.
We're now going all in with offense. If Cat sticks at 3rd and Franklin at short we'd have 3B, SS, 2B, C and LF all as average or below-average fielders.
The Angels are betting on speed at many positions to win back the bases on offense that they might give up with some positions on defense.
Well, Ackley is a rocket, Vinnie can swipe bags and motor on the basepaths, Saunders and Trayvon and Guti can all fly...
It's a different approach. IMO it'd work better for us if we had a catcher going forward who could throw guys out, but neither Montero nor Jaso are good at that. When we play the Angels we're gonna get run on.
So our pitchers had better do their jobs, and our hitters had better jack some balls out of the park. It's a different way to play.
But I'd find it hard to believe it would be any worse than what we've seen.
~G
Doc,
I could play...for a short hitting, ground hugging type of guy. I sniffed around in the scratch range for a whole bunch of years. Don't play much anymore; less than 10-12 times a year. But I still practice a lot. Played a couple of weeks ago, first time since Labor Day (Truth in advertising: I did hit one or two buckets of balls around Christmas). We played 15 holes one afternoon on a great course, jetting around to find open holes. Stood on the 9th tee (our 15th hole) even par, before I whacked a drive into the dunes.
An ugly, double bogie finish, for sure.
"Getting tall" in golf refers to not bending too much at the waist, as you take your stance. Slight flex in the knees, and hips, very slight lean in the back. You stay tall by not "bending" into the ball. Tiger and Snead (and others) "squatted" into the ball, and then exploded up when their hips fired. Generally, power hitter finish tall, too. Think Nicklaus.
Basically this is a set of core athletic positions for almost any sport.
In sporting moves that ask you to pivot around a core, like the golf swing and the batting swing do, it allows you to explode the hips. In a fixed and upright position, you can't do it effectively. In an overy crouched position you can't do it unless your swing has a huge upper-cut to it (you can stand there and demonstrate this), and even then you don't do it well. In golf, almost all power hitters stand tall. Guys with a "lean," or who reach for the ball, generally "slide" the hips through the zone, which means you have a long square clubhead path.....but not great speed. Think Lee Trevino. Think Ichiro at his historical best. This can obviously be a winning move, but it isn't a mashing move. Some "crouchers" can powder the ball, but they do it with their hands, and not their big muscles.
Catricala? He's quiet, he's quiet, he's quiet, he's relaxed (check the bat, tension-less on his shoulder), he's quiet some more......then he explodes/pounces. Well.....like a Cat.
Andres Galaragga retired in Oct. of '04, so "The Big Cat" is available........and appropriate.
moe
Is it possible that Z walked in the M's front door knowing THEN what he wanted HIS team to look like? He looks around seeing empty cupboards. He thinks we need a strong YOUNG rotation. behind King Felix. Then we need STRONG young core of positional players. I want guys that Safeco does not put fear in (we seem to be on the brink of this team). Z knows how to scout, I don't believe anyone questions that. Is it possible he was trying to sell us on one thing, while doing his real majic of pulling levers and flipping switches behind the curtain? He knew it would take time to find and groom the players for his team. So in the interim he gave us a "big flashy" idea of OBP/Defense, hey who know's it may fall into place and we have a "contender"(we saw how that panned out) while Z was building a CONTENDER. If it doesn't fall into place, well we all know it takes time to build a team for long term contention. Now he has his some fireball throwing young guns. He also has some bats that the Safe won't hold in. Exciting time to be in the M's corner!
I was down there for a few days and got some footage with my high speed camera on one of the days, but unfortunately Catricala wasn't in the lineup on the particular day. I was really hoping to get Cat and Franklin. I did get me some video Ichiro, Ackley, and Saunders though. I'll make some of it available if I remember to get around to it.
I'm listening to the Mariners/D'Backs game tonight...it's a parade of exciting young arms...it's almost literally the whites in the afternoon game and the blues in the evening game...and the blues are featuring some truly hilarious results.
Taiguan Walker just finished an inning in the sixth that included 11 pitches, of which 10 were strikes...8 were fastballs, 3 curves...of the strikes, 6 were swinging, one looking, one foul tip, one hard fly out and one foul fly. 2 Ks (both swinging). Hit 99 on the gun several times.
Erasmo Ramirez got five first-pitch outs today. Needed less than 30 pitches for his three innings.
So...yeah...why do we need Millwood, Iwakuma, Noesi?? :)
....are you buying that Kawasaki might be a little bit of a hitter? That seems to be a new source of buzz...I am deeply skeptical due to his lack of demonstrated contact skill in Japan, but would welcome feedback.
Kawasaki wasn't a bad hitter in the JPL (avg .295 w/ .721 OPS), but with the tennis/placement swing like Ichiro without any of Ichiro's occasional power (14 HR in 5 years in smaller parks), most felt that MLB pitchers would just knock the bat out of his hands.
Well, it looks like his wrists are pretty strong, and though he's not hitting it far, he is placing it well. I wouldn't start him, but Ryan looks like he's going to be iffy, and if the alternative is Figgins in the lineup, I'm starting to like the idea of Kawasaki as our SS/UT guy with Seager available with a bigger bat when needed.
Not only is Kawasaki hitting .421 and Trayvon .500, but there are other signs we're not going below 600 runs for a looong time. Small sample size aside, the hitters with more than 10 at bats have 294 total ABs with 96 hits => .327, with 35 XBH. TB=158 => .537 SLG, There's a broad enough sample, even if it's not deep, to say things are looking better. 14 guys are hitting .300 or better, including:
Ackley .353
Smoak .357
Montero .400
Carp .375
Catricala .333
Saunders (!) .389
Seager .300
Peguero .348 (with 26% K's)
Giggle-worthy, indeed!
And.. excluding Kawasaki, Carp is the oldest guy on the list and isn't yet 26.
Hey, Cinderella, let's put a bat-rack on that pumpkin and get ready to go!
Trayvon Robinson singles on a ground ball to the pitcher.... now hitting .538 - guess the specs help, huh, if you also have the speed. Was anybody able to watch the game and see what exactly happened?
Meanwhile, Vinnie the Cat homers off of Harrison, Olivo homers off of Nathan, while after Trayvon and Miller got on, Montero doubled them home off Hamburger. Hamburger was at AAA last year and did OK, so he's no slouch, and Harrison and Nathan are first string, so this continues to look good.