Cameo the +6.3 WAR Franklin Gutierrez

 ...........................................

OBF sez, in the shout box,

Hmmm... F-Gutz might be BACK! 4 hits tonight, but more importantly showing some power the last couple games. homers in back to back games (including a long one tonight in pitcher park petco). Plus some LONG foul balls tonight. We haven't seen him hit the ball this hard in the regular season for at least 1.5 years! I am ok with three center fielders in the outfield all with power :) (Saunders, FGutz, and Wells, Carp DHs, and Ichiro... hmmmm)

A picture's worth 1,000 words.  Well, it was worth 1,000 words back when Floyd Bannister was our ace; in the age of social media and viral marketing it's worth 1.2 million words.

"A picture is worth a thousand words" is true when --- > a complicated idea is conveyed with images that are of the type that can be processed the subconscious mind automatically.  Mojician will tell you, we're sure, that George Zimmerman and Trayvon Martin saw things at a glance - glances of less than one second - that can never be conveyed verbally to a jury, no matter how many words are used.

..............

Watching Franklin Gutierrez swing the bat in San Diego, SSI fans were quick to, consciously or subconsciously, grok that:

Guti was getting weight transfer.  Dr. D busted his chops last year for a static, flat-footed swing that started out on the front foot.  That was not the way on Friday.  Guti was moving weight from the inside of the back thigh the inside of the front thigh, and getting textbook acceleration of the bat.

His home run was both high and far.  In 2010-11 there were times when he was not capable of hitting the ball 300 feet*, much less 400.  As OBF shouted, there was another ball 10' foul down the LF line that was hit MUCH harder than the home run.  Break up the Mariners.

Gutierrez was seeing the ball very early in its flight.  His "takes" were decisive.  He had few, if any, half-positions.  When he let the bat go, he let it go with authority.  He was quick and stubborn in defending pitchers' pitches, and he was very aggressive barrelling the bat up.

He was getting a "sweet spot" barrel to the strike zone without overswinging.  On one foul back, he held his followthrough just like a golfer, about like the photo above.  This means that the "business part" of his through-swing acceleration was --- > concentrated within the area over home plate, not wildly spent on the later part of the swing arc that comes after the pitch arrival.

For two years, we've been busting him mercilessly for ugly, static swings.  Then we remote control the game up and WHHAAAAAaaaaaa?, his swing is almost as prett-ayy as his defense.  ::blinks::

................

Dr. D hasn't seen Gutierrez swing the bat remotely like this since ... what, his first year here?  Never mind the stats:  they are not going to tell you anything with so few AB's.  It's the crosscheck that matters right now, and the crosscheck has Gutierrez in his 5.0 WAR form.

It doesn't make a lot of sense:  Gutierrez has had, in essence, no spring training or some small fraction of a spring training, and here he dives into June MLB in, pretty much, the best form he's ever had.

Jack Nicklaus once answered a question about this, from amateur golfers who shot lifetime bests in their first rounds after the winter.  "I don't think the reason is hard to guess," Jack said.  "You don't expect much of yourself, and don't put any pressure on yourself."  Gutierrez is apparently loose and having fun ....

Of course they say he's regained those 19 pounds or whatever.  It's entirely possible that he's in his 2009 form because he is, for the first time, in his 2009 physical condition.

...............

If you watched the game, you saw his slip-n-slide face dive catch.  Not a lot of guys who can look sharp, looking stupid.  SSI is not Gutierrez' biggest fan, but the guy is truly a pleasure to watch in center field.  (Analogously, Brendan Ryan made two plays to his backhand side, each of which would have been made by, at most, 6-8 shortstops in baseball.)

Good on yer there Cranklin,

Dr D

Comments

1

I've been one of his greatest critics.
But the old swing ("Static" is a great word to describe it), was no where to be found in San Diego, certainly.
But Franklin ALWAYS had those games where he looked like Willie Mays.
Accordingly, I'm going to be WAY slow to think he's found a bat. For three seasons he's had no pop at all, hard to imagine it returns overnight. The cautionary tale is that 3 weeks ago Justin Smoak looked like a big league masher............for 6 games. That has gone away.
But Guti's looked real good the last few days. I'll give him that.
I'm rooting, I'm rooting.
moe

2
ghost's picture

Smoak's good swing is still very much there and the power display is still evident. He hit 5 home runs on the homestand that found the teeth of the marine air and died on the warning track. FIVE. He should have 16 dingers right now and be hitting about .250. If that were happening, we'd all be giddy.

3

Little more than "eyes slideways".  I wit choo, Moe.  (And figured a Golden Bear reference would draw you out!)
The tingly thought here:  that it was only Gutierrez' weight loss that was ever the problem.

4

The substance is spot on as usual Matty :- )
................
The style is, as occasionally the case these days, a bit unduly confrontational with my tee-time partner there ;- )
Moe's got some substance there also, in that many of these M's are up-and-down (team OPS is around 90, after all) and we always face the temptation of buying in when they're up...

5
ghost's picture

Was not remotely going for confrontational.
And I described that very thing to another friend of mine regarding the precarious position in which the Mariners find themselves. They've got 17 guys who have the definite ABILITY to be 2+ WAR players but are streaky as heckfire right now and it's hard to figure out which ones are going to permanently gel and which ones are going to fail. The problem is that we have to pick 10 or 11 guys to give most of the PT to and many of those decisions will have to be made before the players have actually gelled...meaning we're entirely relying on Z and Wedge to make the right calls and pick the guys that will eventually become the stars we need. It's dangerous...because you could go from 17 guys who look occasionally interesting to 11 guys you think will pan out to 3 that actually do and a line-up full of more holes in no time flat.

6

No confrontation was noticed, Ghost.
Your point was well made.
Smoak does hit some loud outs. But they remain (for now) loud outs.
And there you have my concern about Smoak: He does some things that almost look interesting/impressive.........but producing runs isn't one of them right now.
moe

7

Carp is the likely replacement for Smoak, if such a thing were to happen (or Ackley, I guess, not that he's hitting better than Smoak). Carp has 17 career HRs. 7 are at the Safe, but they're doubles that cleared the wall (his iso is .150 at home and .190 on the road) with a BABIP about 50 points higher at home than I'd expect.
Now, maybe his BABIP is high because he was smoking the ball (ha) around the park. Maybe the Safe doesn't have the same effect on Carp that it does on Smoak because Mike hits more liners than Smoak.
Carp: 22% LD, 42% GB, 36% fly
Smoak: 18% LD, 41% GB, 42% fly
In their 2011 years it was a WAY more pronounced difference than that - Carp was hitting 25% line drives compared to Smoak's 14%.
"25% line-drive" Carp should defeat the park much more easily than 14% Smoak. But Carp's #s have fallen sharply in this (injury-plagued) year. Sadly, Justin's haven't risen much. Do you bet on Carp and give up on Smoak? Justin would look great in Texas right now, with hot air carrying balls muscled high in the air right over the fence.
Do you accept that Justin will likely have terrible April-May numbers for his career with us, and just move on? If he can hit on the road and figure out his switch-hitting, I'll swallow that. But he's got to be productive. And that's just ONE call that has to be made.
~G

8

I'm with Matt, it's gonna be rough to decide who stays and who goes. Who is a slow learner, and who is on a hot streak? Which guy is the next Ibanez that we give away because he's not improving at our preferred pace, and which is Lopez, a guy who has the early numbers and is declared untradable then slowly falls apart?
Is Alex Liddi a Mark Trumbo or a Tony Batista? If he's "just" a Batista, can we still use that?
Does Franklin play 2nd or short? If it's 2nd, do you move Ackley (either around the diamond or off the team)? I mean, wouldn't he bring more than Franklin would as a proven 3+ WAR second baseman with upside? Is there ANY universe in which the Ms should be moving a 3+ WAR second baseman under club control?
What do you do with Wells? How do you get Jaso into more games, and can you roll out there with two offense-first catchers and nobody to throw out runners? The hard calls are not "what do we do with Noesi and Millwood" or "can we get anything for League at the deadline?"
The hard part: if we consider the talent now assembled, then how do you make them into the Avengers? Who qualifies for that team?
We have acquired all the young talent we can possibly use at once. The number of players on this team over 30 next season (from the current roster) might be NONE. Or maybe just Ryan (31). That's on the ENTIRE 40-man.
We're not doing that. So if we bring in some vets like the Cuddyers or Kubels we talked about last year, or grab another vet pitcher to pair with Felix to offset the Hultzen/Erasmo/Capps/Furbush/Pryor/whoever youth...
Who goes? Jack's job is nowhere near complete yet. He's got to pare down the talent so the ones we believe in are on the field all the time. He's been bad at picking major-league talent in free agency, so I really hope he's better at choosing which of our minor leaguers are the future stars.
We need the future stars. Or preferrably the current stars.
SOON.
~G

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