Blood in the Water

Q.  Does SSI crunch this as the end of the Angels' season?

A.  The mainframe was surprised to notice that the Angels have had the most balanced offense in the league.

They've done a great job layering their 25-man roster with player after player who goes after it the Angel way.  Don't sell the Angels' org depth short.

Here are the OPS+ finishes for all of their 2009 hitters:

  • 137 - 1B Kendry Morales
  • 126 - CF Torii Hunter
  • 118 - C Mike Napoli (in a full 432 PA's; he slugged .500)
  • 116 - "RF" Bobby Abreu
  • 109 - LF Juan Rivera
  • 108 - 3B Chone Figgins
  • 107 -- #10 hitter Maicer Izturis
  • 106 - DH Vlad
  • 103 - SS Aybar, age 25
  • 102 - 2B Kendrick, age 25

I was blown away.  Like Kelly, I do a fair amount of browsing the b-ref.com historical team bookshelves, and haven't seen many (if any) tomes that contain ten separate above-average hitter chapters.

So that suggests that the Angels would be less affected by a hitter injury than other teams.

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Q.  How much different is it in 2010?  Vlad and Chone are in the past tense.

A.  The Angels were off to a slow start, at a 90 OPS+, so the M's can hope.  I see that 90 as more of a tough start than anything, though.  They replaced Vlad with Godzilla (though, admittedly, Godzilla's EYE is a tragedy in 2010).

The point is that Aybar, Kendrick, and Rivera aren't the bad hitters they've shown.  This mirrors the M's situation with Lopez, Figgins and Bradley.

.

Q.  The Angels' offense could have a bad year, though?

A.  For sure.  Brandon Wood's OBP is 168.  Godzilla just might be done.   The Angels' team EYE is wayyyyy down in 6,000 PA's, and that's hard to do when you replace Vlad with Matsui.

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Q.  Could they have a psychological collapse due to the injury?

A.  That Bozo the Clown routine at home plate was embarrassing, but it's not much of a blow compared to having your handsome young ace throw a shutout in April and then die in a car wreck, we don't guess. 

The Angels are champions.  They've won 5 of 7 division titles, they consistently stomp on Pythag, and they know how to win in good times and in bad.

Word is, though, that the Angels miss Chone Figgins, and badly.  At this point it's true that the gutkicks are starting to pile up.

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Q.  Overall crunch on the Angels 2010?

A.  We're surprised, and pleased, to note that Joe Saunders and Scott Kazmir are having honest-to-betsy stinko years, complete with ralf-able CTL ratios and all the trimmings.  Since their ace has moved to Boston, the 5-man-tag team was necessary, and it's not working out.

The Angels know how to win, but I haven't seen them look this mortal in a looooooooooong time.   The loss of a .562 SLGger does catch them on the chin.

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Be Afraid,

Dr D

Comments

1
Anonymous's picture

You know....  it's times like this when the Angels become dangerous.  They have a recent history of responding to the situation.  They lack the depth they used to, particularly on the pitching side but they are biding their time while a couple guys get some seasoning in the minors.  If they surivive their arson squad of a pen long enough for the other parts of the ship to right itself they may again surprise people.

3
Taro's picture

I think the Angels are done. Their long-term outlook isn't very good either.
The crazy BABIP and RISP success of '09 looks like even more of a fluke now.

4
I.P.'s picture

You realize you've said this before ..  right?
Angels are in the middle of re-inventing themselves.   They are moving away from small ball, not so much moving away from situational hitting but certainly moving away from their hacker ways, even in their farm system.   The real problem is that after a half decade of losing pieces and seeing guys age (Im talking to you Scott Shields), they don't have that depth there used to have.  They have also lost guys that could have been useful as 6th year minor league FA's.
The Angels top to bottom depth hurt them, they traded guys to try to avoid losing them to Rule 5 drafts and minor league FA's and all those winning seasons and the FA spending cost them draft picks, in some ways it was the cost of trying to never rebuild while not really having the cashflow that NY and Boston have had...
Say what you will about the Halos but, they have done a complete makeover of the team while never really sufffering through the typical downtime that rebuilding/reloading teams suffer through.  This year, they are feeling it -- but I think you like many people are vastly underestimating the franchise's ability to look within itself to fill holes and bounce back.  They are nothing if not resilient and Mike Scioscia is nothing if not patient.  He will wait, he will watch he will adjust, the whole time preaching the importance of playing every game, one game at a time.
They really are a bullpen away from being able to weather this storm -- and they can get healthy quick this offseason via free agency simply by chasing hard after Crawford.
Their big mistake IMO was in underesitmating Vladdy..   Vlad has this quiet pride and inner strength that I really grew to admire.  He never was a showboater, her never much demanded attention, but he never liked looking bad.
Luckily for the Halos, Torri Hunter has worked out well, and their OF can be completely swapped out within a year or two.  Most of their recent FA purchases have been of the bargain basement variety, and if the right kids weather AAA, they will be okay.
I will say this much -- for all the smack about Bill Stomeman and his unwillingness to make trades the team misses him.  He excelled at finding the Chone Figgins, David Ecksteins, Brendan Donnelleys, etc etc.. of the world.
As bad as BS was at judging CFers (Im talking about you GMJ and Steve Finley), he was the best in baseball at finding a marginal player that could fill a niche within a team.

5

But I for one am getting tired of watching the Angels take an 'underrated' team to the division title every year...
Just for instance, in 2008 they ran a 94 OPS+ and a 112 ERA+, which should be 85 wins, but they won 100... USSM etc had them real vulnerable for 2009 based on the run differential, and bang, they win 97 yet again with a 102 & 106 offense and defense...
Since Scioscia got there, they find a way to win whatever the club looks like on paper...
...................
Whoever has been betting the Under on the Angels, since 2004 it hasn't been DOV/SSI...
I am hoping, admittedly :- ) that in 2010 the body blows (Chone gone, Vlad, Morales, Lackey etc) and the transition will finally tell... will believe it when I see it, however... as long as Scioscia is there, they will take the field expecting to win and knowing how to win...

6
I.P.'s picture

Was most definitely talking to Taro...  Jeff, You've been slow to put a fork in the Angels in recent years.  
I know things look bleak right now, but if Bell and the new F-Rod can keep it up, they may yet be able to dig themselves out of their early season hole.  Keep in mind it was around this time last year that they lost Vlad and Torri, a lot of people thought there were done and then BOOM.  I don't think the current squad is as apt to finish with 90+ wins like last years but, I know better than doubt Mike Svengali Scoscia.
Sorta interesting but have you looked up the Angels record after 57 games last year?  Same 29-28 they have this year.
Anyway..  if they pull off another one of their magic tricks and the mighty Kohn keeps doing what he's done thoughout his minor league career, who knows....  maybe they make the playoffs and have a new secret weapon coming out of the pen ala K-Rod
Jeff, you always loved looking at minor leagues and numbers.  Check out Michael Kohn.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=kohn--001mic

7

It's times like this that I wish I had a good minors database, so I could see where a career 14.3 strikeout rate ranks among active minor leaguers.
Quick look around the 'net identifies him as getting his K's mostly through short-arm deception?  Sort of like a RH George Sherrill, add four mph?
It's this kind of slop where the saberdudes can really go off, 'cause for tools scouts to rank a 14K reliever #30 in his own org is pretty funny.  It's stuff like that, that gives the sabertistas ammo.

8
I.P.'s picture

He's a trip to watch.  its almost like he short-arms everything, no real extension of the elbow, you basically don't see the ball utnil its on it's way so -- that cuts down on the hitters ability to gauge their swings.   Ive seen him work in the 91-93/4 range but he's got a bit of a heavy ball and his breaking pitch is swurvy sorta thing that is just as hard to pick up.   The neat thing about him is that while he doesnt hit the high 90s Ive seen him throw the ball a good mile or so while warming up...  its the sort of arm strength that impresses you in a different way.
But there is nothing physcially imposing, nothing OOHH and AAH about him, he just hammers people..  I know guys who rely are deception aren't supposed to be viable but then again, I see Jered Weaver is still making people look silly. 
BTW, sorta funny you mentioned Sherrill, my buddy actually made a similar comparison.  Tell you what I liked about him...  he pitches mean.  Just sorta goes out to the mound with this semi scowl as if he he feels he needs to prove himself over and over and over.
Maybe its that drive..  I dunno, but he's been fun to watch in the minors
 

9

that the pitcher holds the ball.
Obverse of that being Brandon Morrow, who even this year has fanned about 70 guys in 60 innings while losing all the time.
...............
No matter how strong a guy is, throwing the ball from foul line to foul line ... as you know, if he gets to the rubber and is then not extending the elbow, then he's accelerating the ball along a much shorter distance... If you can get to 93 with a short delivery I'll take it all day long...
Unlike my man Doogie who has a 20-foot Catwoman's Whip delivery and maybe touches 89, coming up with a sore shoulder :- ) ...
The long-toss remark reminds me of the "late-1st-round-at-best" pygmy the Giants drafted ... throwing 300 feet with no pain the day after 140 pitches, and they were still sweating his durability...

10
Taro's picture

I did say that they were on the downslope last year, and I actually expected them to be a little over .500ish. Obviously they won a lot more than that and have shown an ability to play over their talent level.
I think '10 is exposing the Angels a bit though (its starting to look like they really were more lucky than good in '09).
The Angels had their fun, but these things are cyclical. Texas' has an excellent core and good contract situations at the big league level with a deep farm system. Its going to be tough for the rest of the division to catch up in the next few years. Maybe Oakland with the right trades..
I actually don't like the Mariners chances too much either in the next 2-3 years and feel that rebuilding is probably to most sensible move, but we're still in a much better situation than the Angels right now IMO. The talent on that club is getting expensive and the farm system is weak. $100+ mil for a 94 OPS+ and ERA+? The Angels are in trouble.

11
I.P.'s picture

I would argue you don't really know as much about the Angels farm system as you think you do -- particularly if you're looking at them the same way you would the M's farm system.  
When it comes to the Angels farm, people tend to overrate the wrong players and underestimate the good ones.  The thing about the Angels system is that it typically plans for fallout with a bit of redundency.  When Jeff Mathis was supposed to be THE catcher, nobody seemed to notice Mike Napoli.  When everyone was singing the praises of Kotchman, nobody seemed to pay attention to Kendry, and those that did predicted impending doom.  For every high risk high reward guy there seems to be someone with a lower ceiling toiling as plan B...   Alberto Callaspo had Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood had Erick Aybar.  The Angels under Scioscia have had a tendency to groom players mentally as much as they do the baseball aspect of the game -- they put guys into difficult situations and mask hitters by having them in pitchers parks in hitters leagues...  or their pitchers in extreme hitters parks like Salt Lake.
The lower levels of the Angels farm system is alive and well, the pitching is very much ahead of the hitting but there are some bats that are very promising and no..  Not talking about Mike Trout although yeah... he's special.  I will say this much -- AA is a wasteland, but they are very much fast-tracking guys is a similar manner to what they did in 01.
As far as payroll goes.... Not sure if you have looked at the data at Cots, but the Angels actually are primed to shed a ton of payroll the next two years -- they have less committed to players in 2012 than do the Mariners and only 5 million more than do the Rangers...  More importantly, the Rangers will have 12 arbitration eligible players after this season, 16 including several that may be super 2s after next season.   So, while there is a clog in the near future, its not as clogged as you think -- this is something the Angels have been successful at for a while now ... don't believe me?  Compare the 2002 roster to the 2010 roster.  They do a very good job of staggering their contracts to allow for some roster flexibility.
The Rangers look good, they have a nice core and I love their farm system too -- they also haven't shown they know how to win yet and there is no telling what they might do to try to win before they are ready.  Youll have to forgive me, but I remember the last time people said these things about the Rangers. 
Remember when Grady Fuson had brought the farm system back to life, and Michael Young, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix and Hank Blalock were going to take the team back to the top as they were all affordable and made up a great core?  Remember when they had Adrian Gonzalez, Gerald Laird, Drew Meyer, Joaquin Arias, Jason Botts, Vince Sinisi and I think even John Mayberry Jr on the farm?  Remember David Delucci and Alfonso Soriano as the veteran types?   They also had the crop of sure thing pitchers Eric Hurley, Thomas Diamond, John Danks, Kam Loe, Nick Masset, Juan Dominguez, Edinson Volquez, Nick Regilio(sp), Josh Rupe and Wes Littleton, who were going to finally change the fortune of the organization...  Remember those guys?
Texas looks better this time around than they did in 04/05 when they were supposedly gearing to take over the division.  The problem is they are undergoing an ownership change and Ron Washington is their manager.  They are almost certainly going to do a management change after this season, if not midseason should the Rangers fail to get it going.  That's going to mean a new set of eyes coming in and a new mandate, unless of course Nolan Ryan is just going to call the shots from here until they win or he buys another minor league team.
Again, I like Texas, but they really look to be the AL version of the Brewers.  A team that continally produces young talent and looks to be putting it all together only to never have it happen.   Seriously -- compare the recent histories of those teams and tell me if you don't see the many similarities?  Maybe it's the Doug Melvin connection.
As far as the A's go -- they will never be a legit winner again unless baseball eases up on its drug testing.   I know that seems a bit over the top but I have long called that organization ground zero for the steroid craze and NOTHING thats happened in the last few years has made me see it differently. A's fans are famous for talking up their bad luck with injuries and the sort...  well, its harder to stay healthy when you aren't getting insta-rest in pill form.'  Still it's not all bad...  They will continue to produce quality pitchers and fat position players that get on base but unless they become less risk-averse they are doomed to put out mediocre offenses that suffer a four month hamstring pull while reaching for a ham sandwich..   Dont delude yourself into thinking their newfound love of defense wasnt in large part influenced from the lack of juice in their hitters. 
As crappy as the Ms season may seem right now, this division doesn't have any one team that looks to dominate for the forseeable future.  Whatever groundwork the Ms are trying to put together right now needs to be planned out all the way through, cause kneejerk reactions and course changes will only lead to mediocrity.  Don't buy into the Rangers hype until they show they are more than a nice collection of talent that can't play it's way out of a wet paper bag without some sort of devine intervention.  Don't ever believe that Billy Beane's genius wasn't as much a result of his willingness to look the other way as it did with his ability to find players that could benefit from his tendency to look the other way.
As far as the Angels go -- so long as Mike Scioscia is around, and he has the old school power of managers from yesteryear the team will show up ready to play, regardless of their talent level.  If you doubt it's the manager then take a look at what his disciples are doing in TB and SD.... 
The west is only STARTING to get interesting.

12
Taro's picture

Interesting counter-take.
I didn't realize Texas had that many arbitration eligible players, but the core is really solid and cheap. With their position players pretty much set for the next few years and a dirt cheap rotation and bullpen (with a ton of minor league pitching), I think they are sitting pretty.
Even so, as you've mentioned prospects never pan out the way you think they do so you never know.

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