1
Makes perfect sense to me about what I feel when Beavan's pitching.
Blake Beavan Scouting Report 8.19.12
Excellent pitcher ... until he's ahead in the count
.
Q. Wow, another 72-25 strike to ball ratio?
A. And that was despite a very tight strike zone that had all the other pitchers issuing walks. Matthew at Lookout Landing pointed out that Beavan threw only 7 pitches all day when behind in the count. Matthew at Lookout Landing also pointed out that during Felix' perfect game, he threw 22 pitches when behind in the count.
Matthew gives .975 as the OPS when hitters are ahead, and .523 when behind. These essential stats have been posted on clubhouse walls since approximately the days of John McGraw ... 's manager.
Don't sell it short. Throwing a baseball through an area the size of your monitor, and not getting it detonated in the AL, that's a skill in itself. It is.
.
Q. If Beavan is ahead in the count this much, why isn't he better?
A. Watching the game, it really struck you how every one of Beavan's pitches is ideal for --- > an 0-0 count. Beavan will pitch the entire ballgame and throw, virtually, not one pitch that a hitter wants to swing at if it is the first pitch. The man has completely mastered the art of a get-ahead fastball, get-ahead slider, and get-ahead change curve.
Also when behind in the count 2-0 or 3-1, which isn't often as Matthew of Lookout Landing noted, Blake Beavan also has the enviable skill of being able to deliver a strike -- a strike which is not tasty.
So in terms of reliable, quality strikes on 0-0, 1-0 and 2-0, Blake Beavan is indeed about as good as it gets. Take Beavan's little nickel slider. He threw 24 - of which 20 were strikes, and on which 4 Jaso argued with the ump. Beavan does that every time, 20 of 24 sliders for strikes. Amazing. He literally throws it for strikes at will.
.
Q. What's Beavan's problem in pitcher's counts?
A. No putaway pitch.
A 92 fastball on the black, what does Justin Morneau do with that?
.
Q. What does Justin Morneau do with that?
A. He slaps it over the 3B dugout.
Whereas Blake Beavan is absolutely magnificent when the count is 0-0, or 2-0 for that matter ... the flip side of the coin is that he is minor-league caliber when pitching with two strikes.
There you go. You now understand Blake Beavan. ML All-Star in even counts and hitters' counts. Triple-A caliber when trying to put a hitter away.
.
Q. Who else is like that?
A. Josh Tomlin. Bronson Arroyo. Carl Pavano. Carlos Silva. Bartolo Colon. Jeff Francis.
These guys all deliver rawhide-tough, quality pitcher's pitches and do it with metronomic consistency. But they just don't have anything dangerous to get swing-throughs. Even a guy like Jamie Moyer had a dangerous changeup, a deadfish change that could finish a batter for a swinging K.
You're still talking about a pitch-to-contact type of guy. Josh Tomlin's lifetime BABIP is .275, compared to .300 average. Bartolo Colon has been getting .270's, .280's. Guys like Francis and Porcello don't have the hair-fine fastball command, so don't have good BABIP's.
Don't get me wrong. Arroyo, Tomlin, Pavano etc. get 4-5 strikeouts per game, not 0 strikeouts per game.
.
Q. Supposing that's where Beavan is going to level out?
A. If he levels out at 4, 5 strikeouts a game and 1+ walks... pitching the way he does... well, here are the lifetime ERA+ for these guys:
| Pitcher | ERA+ |
| Jeff Francis | 96 |
| Carl Pavano | 96 |
| Josh Tomlin | don't ask |
| Carlos Silva | 93 (was 110 pre-Seattle) |
| Bronson Arroyo | 104 |
| Bartolo Colon | 110 (last four years; 112 lifetime) |
Guys like this can chew innings and give you league-average ERA's very consistently. Most of a player's salary consists of league-average performance; for a starter that's worth $8M per season.
.
Q. Which of these guys are the best comps?
A. Actually Bronson Arroyo uses smoke and mirrors, lots of offspeed, so ... really the two guys there who just locate the fastball, Carlos Silva five years ago and Bartolo Colon now. Those two guys are really the ones who pitch(ed) Beavan's game.
Remember Carlos Silva's 2005, when he walked 9 guys all year, throwing 80-85% fastballs? Carl Pavano went 17-10 a couple years ago. In up years, these guys can win 17. Put Colon or Arroyo in front of a great defense, in a big park ... like, say, the Mariners 2012 ... and it amplifies their skill sets.
So Beavan is looking like he could find his level at a 100-110 ERA+ in the Seattle context. That would be worth a considerable amount, although we hear that even Doug Fister doesn't make our top five.
.
Q. Speaking of Fister, could Beavan pull that kind of thing off?
A. There are guys like Fister, Brandon McCarthy, Jeff Karstens, who start at 4+ strikeouts, 1+ walks, and who find a putaway pitch. Or, like Fister, find six or eight putaway pitches. Bah humbug.
I'll believe Blake Beavan's putaway pitch when I see it. But as you guys keep saying: he's young. In the meantime, Beavan is pitching ahead in the count, like Matthew says. You throw 92 MPH on the black, you're going to bank some jack. Beavan is giving them a pretty rough ride these days.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
2
There is a bit of a value added component to Beavan (besides that he's only 23) and that is that he gives you his 100-ish pitches almost every game out......and that is almost always 5 innings+.
34 career starts and only 3 times did he go less than 5, and one of those was a 3 inning deal on May 7 this year, where he pitched effectively.
He was rocked in 2 innings on June 10 and went 93 pitches over 4 innings on May 15. Not many teams sneer at a guy like Beavan in the #4 or #5 spot. He's a Freddy Garcia for the Yanks (maybe even a Nova), or a Cobb for the Rays, or a Tommy Hunter for the O's. Heck, Hunter went 13-4 in '10, leading the league in Win %, while in Texas (!) with a 3.73 ERA. He gave up 8.9 hits, 2.3 walks, and 1.5 taters p/game. K'ed 4.8 guys. Blake gives up an extra hit and walks one less guy. You can win with what e does, and some years you will look really good. But you pointed that out.
He's worth having around. He'll win 14-15 games one season in the next 2 or 3. If that's the season one of the big three breaks out and Felix is Felix, all of a sudden you're sniffing WC.
I'm a buyer on Beavan. He ain't Bob Feller. But he ain't corned beef,either. John Halama was a 10-gamme winner fr the '01 M's. His numbers were very '12 Beavan-esque. Paul Abbot went 17-4 that year andhis WHIP was considerably worse than Beavan's.
Preaching to the choir, I know, Doc. But in year 2, he K's more guys, walks less (hard to go lower) and throws harder.
Give him a shuuto or the Felix Flounder and he jumps another level. 50/50 at worst.
moe
3
I'm completely with Moe in regards to Beavan's value as a #5 guy. 31 out of 34 he goes 5 innings or more? Constantly tossing quality starts. Still learning how to get hitters out. Still younger than Paxton. :)
Beavan at 5, Felix at 1, and you've got back to back guys that you know will give the bullpen a rest. That's awesome for a manager. And great for a team that will likely throw Hultzen and/or Walker and Paxton in the middle - guys who will have some ups and downs.
I've said it before, but I'll say it again, he's got a spot in my rotation.
- Ben.
4
Although there are a few teams that have TOR guys in the 4-5 slots... such as the Pineda-Bedard-Fister Mariners... but teams like that aside, there are blinkin' few baseball teams that have reliable 95-110 ERA+ starters in the 4 slot.
Beavan's current incarnation, 5 strikeouts, 0+ walks, maybe 1.2, 1.3 homers like Catfish, and this 72-of-97 strikes shtick, that guy will win 14 games in front of a good defense if he has run support.
Since he's returned from AAA he has been my idea of a sweet BOR starter.