Seattle Sports Insider

There are actually some things than can go wrong with Ohtani's coronation as a Cy Young contender - more things that can go wrong with his coronation as a QUALITY hitter.

He is throwing up to 100 MPH, but ... a few control problems, or he loses -3 MPH, or he gets hurt ... I dunno, we've seen our Daniel Cabreras and Gil Meches and Bill Pulsiphers and whatnot.

I mean, you give Healthy Ohtani a 90% chance to be Yu Darvish (he pretty much IS Yu Darvish quality NOW) and a 40% chance to be Randy Johnson. But those 10%'s happen. Ohtani, for me, is less likely to be a SUPERSTAR pitcher than he is to be a GOOD hitter. (If he's healthy he has been a good major league pitcher already.)

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It's very hard to see the 10% in which Ohtani isn't a 110 OPS+ batter in the big leagues. If he hurts his arm and you develop him carefully, maybe that's a great shot at 140.

I'd like to see somebody take the opinion that Ohtani is actually a more certain hitting prospect STAR (also) long-term than he is a pitcher - that they'll cash in his next 15 years as hitter while you take his pitching chips. Like Babe Ruth. That could be the case.

If I were Dipoto that's how I'd answer the essay question: that in the year 2022 he may be more likely to hit than pitch, because of the injury factor. And that we'd treat his hitting as such.

M's with good chances of getting him

Have seen GM's quoted on where he'll go. "There is simply no way to know" was one quote, and the consensus. I think that's right.

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You can infer that Ohtani is considering teams like the Oakland A's simply because he sent essay tests to 30 teams. He's obviously looking at teams American free agents would not. Personally I'm guessing that as of right now, he actually is open to all 30 teams, including the White Sox, Padres, etc.

There was a rumble that Ohtani wanted to help a team rise to the top, that is currently not doing well or that has never been to the World Series. That kinda-sorta rings true also, and you fancy that maybe he's already glancing over at the Mariners a bit more than other teams. Since he's pals with Iwakuma, how would he not give the M's more than 1/30 his interest?

In ANY case, if I'm the Yankees or Red Sox, I greatly dislike the fact that he sent out 30 feelers. I'm not used to that, to being in essence a poor team trying to recruit. Why WOULD the Yankees have any advantage over the A's here? Well, "you can stay here after you're a free agent." That's the only thin dime they have. But the A's pay players $15M per year, would pay more for Ohtani. Why do we assume that 4 or 7 years from now, THEN Ohtani will want to set banking records?

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But my thing is, we had No. Blinkin'. Idea. the M's were up to this challenge. Their recruiting press goes past our wildest dreams. I mean, from a fan's standpoint take your ideal situation? and this one doubles down on it.

Way to go Jerry-O.

NY-TEX-SEA-LAD

Welcome back with a vengance, Doc!

I also love the good 'ole college recruiting atmosphere around Ohtani. It's definitely not accurate to say all 30 teams have an equal shot, though. For example, the Yankees have a better shot than the Oakland, not because of money and "stay after FA," but because in all likelihood, they will have a better presentation and answers to the heralded 7 questions. Like many others, I see this as a 4-horse race. Go Seattle Slew!

ALSO: Ohtani was clocked Home to 1st at around 3.8 sec (think Billy Hamilton). Ridiculous.

3.8

I totally forgot about that. Was Ichiro 3.7 a few times? Wow!

Agreed that the chances can’t be totally even all the way around. Great add about the Yankees and the recruiting process itself. Along with their clubhouse facilities versus Oakland. +1

Oh-Oh.

With a self-imposed title like "Doc", you should know better than to hang out in hospitals ... welcome back.

Based on his high-wire act, how could anyone not imagine DePoet would not go all in, as a number of denizens have prophesized for months.

Show time, set up the spotlights ... but leave the safety net set up.

So he jumps out over a week ago, when every has kept sealed lips (excepting, of course, Cashman in New York and his herd of subjective "local media", hearalding the Yank-Offs general manager for a trip to Japan a couple months ago to see him play.

Only other team to trumpet a trip to see the HamFighters, and make some contacts (and take along their noted interpreter, Anthony Suzuki ... who was not related to an Ichiro who had the same last name but was not related), and who did as Ichiro asked and kept the media and fans at arms length ... and let his playing establish an image.

Ohtani is not broke, contrary to his "cheap" image. He has made lotsa yen over and above his baseball salary, and he is savvy enough to know he will make bajillions in a couple years unless he is injured.

This very Friday morning, on a day where there are reports than he has been in LA for a week or so preparing to interview teams to determine his next employer, how different is this than when a certain hitter showed up at the Winter Meetings a few years ago with absolutely no media outside Asia making any kind of mention about him. You may recall his name, and how he became a fan favorite.

Yes, all 30 teams will put $20 million in escrow just to be able to chat with BabeRuth-san this coming week ... BECAUSE ANY GM WHO DOESN'T WANT INTO THIS LOTTERY faces his own expulsion from the exclusive GM club ... they have to do it.

But, DePoet throws out his "full court press" last week proclaiming the M's are in it to win it, and they've been preparing for this moment for over a year.

The local culture, back in the 40's and early 50's, had a local hardball team called the "Nisei Vets". WW Japanese-Americans born in the United States to immigrant parents from Japan.

Veterans, recruited out of Hawaii and from internment camps for their families in the U.S., ended up being the most decorated unit of WWII, fighting in Europe, frontrunners to Rome, and who broke open the chains on the Dachau concentration camp in Germany.

That team is undoubtedly mentioned, along with the Nisei Vets cultural center ... and their celebration at halftime of the Seahawks game on November 20th this season were undoubtedly small parts of the integrated mix which will be presented to Mr. Ohtani within the week.

Supposedly (and I can not yet get proper second source attribution for this) the schedule is for the player to meet with representatives of all teams over the next week, and, immediately following the Winter Meetings, the list of suitors will be announced which will be reduced to two teams, and his final choice will be announced within the week following that announcement .

The gall that the player showed in requesting teams to provide answers to a specific list of questions regarding his role with his new team has got to be serious acid dumped into these organizations.

But ... DePoet has already taken anti-irritants to keep the smile of Seattle glowing in what will be, one of the grandest moments in Seattle sports history (or in the history of baseball, period).

This guy ain't gonna flop ... he's gonna raise national TV ratings by a couple points all by himself ... and he will make the entire team better.

Granderson, and John Jay, and Bruce are small speed bumps, compared to Oh-Oh, in gaining public attention.

Signing Kuma was not an accident, nor was the meeting involving DePoet and Ichiro.

Junior? Seattle political figures of Japanese heritage? A fresh salmon flown in for the LA meeting?

"All In" .... was a phrase used last week in efforts to obtain BabeRuth-san's services.

One national media person actually had the pepto-bismo ready when he announced the Yankees and Mariners would be the two finalists.

I don't know if there are Vegas odds on a prop bet on this matter, but, if you can get down on the M's at a defent return, grab it.

The Yankee, Yankee, Yankee media will just turn their target on FA's, including the recent mess forked over for bail by Atlanta.

And can you possibly imagine Lincoln, or Hamstrong, or Bavasi, or ZooRedNeck going all in?

This will greatly elevate DePoet's stature.

zoom

"...possibly imagine Lincoln, or Hamstrong going all in?"

No way.

Otherwise we might have had a chance with Cano.

Agreed and agreed

I tend to thinnk that the M's are at/near the top of the list. I am not sure if that makes us 5 to 1, 3 to 1 or 1 to 2 bets. I have to believe that Dipoto thinks the bet is a relatively short one, or he would be making other moves.

And I am with you, Doc. Ohtani's odds of being a good MLB hitter are way better than his being a Cy guy. The injury risk, or teven slight tweak risk, makes that true. But he projects into a Darvish type pitcher and I'm giving him every chance to show both skill sets. I would tell him right now, you'll get a start every 5th or 6th day, and you'll get to hit on your off days. I might give him the day before a start off, and I might not. Heck, let him hit when he throws, too. Seems to me one of those leagues does it and it doesn't seem to ruin those Kershaw starts very much. Not many Japanese pitchers come over and bomb. They've an established AAAA level of performance that is a reliable place to base projections on and they have such a great rhythm that mechanical breakdowns are far more rare with them, it seems. He's going to be a MLB pitcher and a good one. He may or may not run a 1.18 WHIP and a 3.30 FIP like Darvish.

Darvish was a prodigy in Japan, throwing in the bigs at 18. He and Ohtani share that prodigal legacy. Darvish and Ohtani are basically equals, if you look only at their JPL pitching lines. Both have allowed 6.4 H/9 and 0.4 HR/9. Darvish walked 2.4 and K'ed 8.9. Those numbers are 3.3 and 10.3 for Ohtani. In MLBDarvish's H/9 has increased to 7.3, his HR/9 to 1.0, his BB/9 to 3.3 and his K's have jumped to 11/9. Using that as a template, you might deduce that Ohtani is a 7.3, 1.0, 4.2 and 12.4 guy over here. If you K 11+ guys per, you can get by with 4 BB's.

Doc, was it you or somebody else who said that he might "just" be a Granderson type of hitter? Did I imagine that you wrote that? Anyway, that isn't sort of a bad level to start at. Grandy is .252-.339-.472 = .812 for his career. vR he's a .854 hitter. Just .696 vL, but who cares when you are at .854 vR.

BTY, B-R projects Granderson (86% reliability) at .230-.330-.447 next season, w/23 HR's in 527 PA's. He will be a one year buy, and not THAT expensive. He even played CF (not well) last season. I could live with a Granderson signing, way more than a Jay signing.

500 lb Gorilla

As in, where does the 500 lb gorilla play? Answer: Any dang where he wants. Also let me vent my pet peeve. Hotani

plays for the Hokkaido team. It is sponsered by Nippon Ham. They are called the "Fighters." Most of the western

media wants to call 'em the "ham fighters." You don't fight hams! you eat 'em!

Yanks out

May be down to Giants and Mariners? Would be perfer NL or AL?