1
...Jon Garland in a different uniform on April 1st.
18 Wins In the #5 SP Slot
Glass Half Full, Dept.
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The headline is tongue in cheek, LrKrBoi29. Just so you know.
What do we as Mariners fans LIKE about powerflushing the potential 17-win seasons of Brandon Maurer and Erasmo Ramirez?
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In 2005, Jon Garland went 18-10, 3.50 for the White Sox and finished #6 in the AL Cy Young voting.
It's not like he threw a completely different arsenal back then. With the 2013 Jon Garland, we are not talking about the difference between the 1999 and 2012 versions of Freddy Garcia. Jon Garland got that done with pretty much the same stuff he has now. He had 4.7 strikeouts and 1.9 walks in 2005.
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It's not like 2005 was the only time that Garland pitched well. He went 18-7 the next season, too, in 2006.
Garland has 132 career wins, the same as Josh Beckett, and despite being "only" 33 years old, he ranks #13 among active pitchers for W's.
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Kevin Millwood, in 2012, was coming off a season out of baseball -- well, pretty much -- and he had one of his finest seasons in a bounceback mode.
Without a doubt, the Mariners took great pleasure in their "find" and without a doubt, Millwood's 2012 gave them the warm fuzzies about pitchers like Garland.
Should Garland and Saunders crash and burn this year, no doubt they'll come to camp next year with a revised attitude. You'll remember that last year, the Mariners went sort of overboard with the kiddie lineup, and this year if anything they're overreacting to a poor 2012 -- you have not only Morales and Morse, but also Raul Ibanez here, and Jason Bay probably replacing Casper Wells.
In the NFL, whoever wins the Super Bowl sets the trends for the rest of the league, and I'd maintain that the M's are being somewhat impressionable about Millwood's results.
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The Times' idea that two Erasmo outings should overturn his evaluation as a pitcher - nada. We spend all this time talking about not overreacting to spring stats, and then we turn around and bail on a guy based on 5 IP in Arizona :- )
Here are Erasmo's spring stats, after his two "bashings":
| IP | K | BB | HR |
| 14 | 10 | 2 | 1 |
You see how we, even as sabermetricians, SUBCONSCIOUSLY are as beholden to ERA as we ever were.
Erasmo's ERA has skyrocketed to 3.86, so wow, I guess it really is time to flush him... Michael Pineda came to camp as a rookie, drew 15 swings and misses in one of his starts, but did give up 4-5 runs and people wanted to know why we didn't see his weaknesses coming into camp. The fact is, gentlemen, we don't watch ERA any less than we ever did.
This March, Erasmo's component stats are unchanged from 2012. He's still walking 1+ men per nine ... he's still avoiding gopher balls ... and he's still putting away hitters. The hand-wringing about his ERA being higher than 0.00 is way off the mark.
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But! Jon Garland has in fact had a lot of American League success, as had Kevin Millwood.
Garland threw the ball very, very well on Thursday afternoon. If you can get a rotation with Felix' 150 ERA+, and four guys behind him going 100-105 ERA+, you've got a rotation worthy of a championship.
Tampa Bay's rotation last year:
| Pitcher | W | L | ERA+ |
| Price | 20 | 5 | 149 |
| Shields | 15 | 10 | 108 |
| Moore | 11 | 11 | 100 |
| Hellickson | 10 | 11 | 124 |
| (Cobb/Neimann) | 13 | 12 | 105 |
They wound up with a staff ERA+ 120, which (mathematically) stacks up to many of the great rotations in history. You get five solid starters with an ace up front, well, now the question is whether your lineup and bullpen can win you a World Series.
Garland is well capable of a 14-10, 105 ERA+ season, and a team that gets such a performance from its #5 starter is a rough ride for anybody.
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Comments
2
Lonnie delivers the goods! Turned out to be today.
3
I figured a 20%, 30% chance that the Mariners would shed Garland after all ... I figured if so, this'll be the best two hours I ever waste.
Is there a final word on this yet?
4
Per Divish, Garland has cleaned out his locker already. By the way, I find Divish quietly solid with plenty of video clips.
5
"At this time we cannot commit a rotation spot to [Garland] or a roster spot,"
6
Baker is the one who led the charge on the Ms being all over Garland...total and complete fail. I love it.
7
Didn't Cameron flatly inform his readers that Garland was in the rotation? :- )
8
I had to strikethru a couple of words in the original article.
And you couldn't wipe the smile off my face as I did so :- )
9
GMZ really played his cards close to his chest on this one -- fooled everybody, it seems. No reason to come down on Baker. The money quote from Divish: "Bonderman had his best outing of the spring in a minor league game. His velocity was in the low 90s on his fastball and his breaking ball showed its most consistent movement. That made the decision with Garland a little easier."
Read more here: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2013/03/22/garland-exercises-opt...
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And he wasn't just personally recommending Garland...he was saying Wedge was saying all the things you'd want to hear to believe that the Mariners wanted Garland.
11
Don't you think this is Z's call alone, perhaps going against Wedge?
It's the right call.
There is hope! :)
moe
12
Yeah, I kind of doubt that Wedge wants youth in the 2/5 of the rotation but this is a reminder that Jack holds the cards when it comes to the roster. Looks like Loe is a lock for the pen, with Kinney headed to the DL. Bay/Wells for 4th OF and Maurer/Ramirez/Beavan for the final two slots in the rotation appear to be the only battles left.
13
Moe, Griz - I agree. This seems like Z trumping Wedge, which is what he ought to do. That's his job.
Regarding Baker: I'd guess he was simply reporting what he was told and told most likely by Wedge or somebody on his staff. Field staff is who reporters have access to. They're there every day. You can walk up and talk to them. You have to put a call in and request to talk to Z who might or might not respond.
14
...who thinks Casper Wells is completely useless and needs to go away? He reminds me of Jose Lopez after he spiraled into the toilet.
15
Wilhelmson is good and all...no disrespecting the bartender. But Capps is just plain RIDICULOUS. Include TW in one of your mega-package deals for juicy tidbits if another team wants him...Capps could have one heck of a career if he can keep throwing 94+ with that arm action and that nasty frisbee slider
16
...that as long as Davey boy has been mangling Mariner articles that he would have learned to NEVER write in absolutes.
17
... where there is none. Eric da Wedgie and Jack Z are pretty much in lock-step with everything that happens with the team. Sure, as a field manager there are some things that Wedge would like, but he has been around the game long enough to know when something is good for the team and when something is good for the organization. Wedgie is a great NCO who makes his commanding officer look good (which is what all good NCO's do).
18
Sullivan's defense of Cameron was about the most impassioned writing I've seen from him. Man. I wouldn't defend my son or wife as grimly as that :)
Never understood that bromance. Loyalty is always inspiring to see, though ...
The issue remains the same, whatever the legal defense. Guys try to sell themselves as Authorities -- but only authority is Zduriencik. He'll let us know when he wants to let us know.
There isn't any inside info in Marinerland. Z doesn't even tell his own people what he's up to.
19
From a distance, Wedge and Zduriencik seem to have a relationship with a military flavor and it seems to function very well.
Wedge of course has his own view of things, and seems to fall in very well with the directives from above, without losing his own strength of purpose. I also admire the way they work together Lonnie.
20
... where because there is no drama, no one seems to realize just how good it is. Wedge has really impressed me since he arrived. With Cleveland he was pretty much a rigid manager, which is what they needed, but with Seattle Wedgie has changed each season to match the changing dynamics of his team. I think that most people don't realize just how good we have it right now.
21
...great fodder for a future article, Doc. If you don't I will ;)
22
Just for the record...Michael Dowd is playing some of the worst defensive catcher I've ever seen. Anywhere. Wow.
23
Z probably likes the young pitchers better than we do. They are the product he has been hyping for years. Perhaps Baker and other writers only touted Garland as a way to stir debate and make their jobs more interesting. There was a post last week on the Times blog where Baker called E-Ram and Maurer's superior spring training statistics "mere results". I thought that was outrageous at the time but In retrospect he was probably just pulling our chain.
24
Attended game ST game today against Indians - Wells looked terrible at plate: 0-4 with 2 K's and his timing was off when he did swing. I'm a Wells fanboy, but when he is off he looks terrible.
25
If Wells is the kind of guy who is terrible when he's not in a groove and awesome when he is...do you think he'll hit .120 or .180 as a pinch hitter. No higher batting average estimates are offered because none are possible. He will flat out not hit as a pinch hitter and fifth outfielder because he will never be in a groove in that capacity.
As the Mariners are well stocked in the OF for starting gigs...he has no place on the roster if he can't hit off the bench.
Which means you give that slot to a guy who you don't need to play that often and who is a professional at bat at any time. That would be Bay if it's anyone on our current roster.
26
This is his first exposure to baseball above the Low-A Clinton! Dowd has, without question, the best arm of any catcher in the Mariners system, and I'd back him in any catching competition against other orgs. Dowd's strength is his defense, but word around ST this year is that he looks good at the plate and many are looking for an offensive power breakout season from him.
He's a kid to keep an eye on.
27
...then he must have had some TREMENDOUS nerves going. Because his throws were both weak and wild, his footwork was atrocious, his pitch blocking included a really bad passed ball and a forgivable spiked curveball for a wild pitch, and he very nearly whiffed on a foul pop.
So basically...he did ZERO things right.
28
... on his performance last night. He epitomized my favorite saying. Yes, he was, at that particular point in time, the tallest steaming pile in the world :)
29
and got thwarted back quite soundly.
My main question over there wasn't actually why statistically or sabermetricly Wells was superior to Bay, but more why the emotions of the entire community swung so harshly on the 5th OF spot of little consequence. I worded the question poorly, and of course tried to be funny which never comes off well, but my own thoughts on the matter are that we are more emotionally tied to Casper Wells not based on what he is or what he could be, but based on what was given up for him... Why it is viewed that Fister was traded straight up for Wells, and thus Wells MUST succeed (and he cant succeed if he isn't on the roster) so we don't feel like we were totally bambozooled in that trade, I am not sure. I see the Fister trade as Fister for two good, highly rated prospects who have (thus far) failed badly (although Ruffin could become a closer at any moment, his issue seems to be in his head, and F_Mart could blossom in his new role as a CF, he is certainly young enough) and a very fine lefty late inning reliever plus a shot at a 4th OF who could blossom into a starting OF if he could ever figure out the strike zone. So they whiffed on the prospects and Well's ks too much, oh well, you lose some trades. For some reason LL just cant move on from it and all of their hopes for that trade rely on Wells.
IOW, the (over)reaction to anything and everything that happens to Well's is in my humble opinion an EQ response not an IQ response.
30
At this point, I think Wells is a poor fit for our bench, even if you liked his talent...and I don't. And at this point, I don't care about the Fister trade. It stinks, but that happens to the best GMs sometimes. We have so much talent that at this moment, Fister would be superfluous for us anyway. So who cares? Move on...kinda like we can't still chafe at passing on Tim Lincecum and then trading Morrow for League. Boohoo...both were bad calls...we survived and you know what...the future is bright in Marinerville. So smile. And make decisions with the rational part of your brain.