Q. Cyber-Seattle is talking Ackley with the M's #2. BB&T quotes a source that says that the Mariners are negotiating a contract, LOL.
Does D-O-V endorse?
A. Dustin Ackley would be the quintessential Dr. Detecto selection with the 2009 #2 pick.
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Q. What's the coefficient of confidence?
A. Not very high. I don't know of any way for a behind-the-monitor 'net rat to get a good read on an amateur HITTER. (Gimme a vid of a pitcher, with radar readings and college stats, and it's another subject.) How are you, I, or Bill James his ownself going to tell the difference between one college All-Star and another?
It's even worse for high school kids. There isn't an amigo in the flatlands who can make sense of HS statistics. High school is the barrio of the tools-scout warrior and saberdweebs dare not venture in.
Even at that, only the very rare bird, the Roger Jongewaard, can point at an 18-year-old Matt Tuiasosopo and say, THAT one. There might be ten or twenty Jongewaards alive.
You're going to hear the best in the business say that Jeff Clement, a #3 overall, can't hit -- ONE year before he gets to the big leagues, AFTER he has a pro track record. So how are you going to differentiate between one ACC all-star and another one?
You, I, and everybody else -- with hitters, now -- are going off other peoples' opinions. And very few people have Jongewaard-ian track records in projecting kids into the future.
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Q. So why Ackley?
A. Because he seems to be head-and-shoulders the top college hitter, him and Grant Green (SS-USC), maybe.
Just f'r instance, check Jason's mock draft. The top 8 have seven pitchers and Ackley, and every college hitter has a "cellar" at 23 or below. In other words, according to Jason, every college hitter could slide past 20 teams who all agree that he's not a top-20 prospect. Yet Ackley has a "cellar" of 6 -- easily the strongest cellar of any player (hitter or pitcher) other than Strasburg.
This ILLUSTRATES (doesn't prove) the concept that everybody agrees that Ackley will play well in the majors.
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Q. Is that all?
A. No. Ackley is lefthanded. ... In some other parks this would be nice; in Safeco it is critical.
Ackley has the 2:1 eye ratio -- that's 2 walks per strikeout -- that guys like Jay Buhner and Edgar Martinez had below the major league level. Ackley's BB/K doesn't prove that he's a fast, lefty Edgar -- but it certainly raises the possibility.
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Q. What about a pitcher?
A. In PRINCIPLE I'd much rather spend a very high draft pick on a hitter than a pitcher. That's the way I play roto.
Ackley gives you like a 75% chance of a quality ML player; any pitcher other than Strasburg has a good, solid 60% chance of having something go horribly wrong before he wins 18 games. Ask Brandon Morrow and Phillippe Aumont.
Of course, that's all we're talking here, is general principles: a REAL decision between (say) Green and Ackley has to be made by a Jongewaard type who has seen each one many, many times.
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Never mind general principles, the last thing I want to do is see this franchise spend another top-10 pick on a relief pitcher. I'm in no mood to speculate. Give me this Chase Utley wannabe all day long. :- )
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Q. What position does Ackley play for you?
A. I don't see why the TJ would bother him next year, but if it did, there's your Safeco-esque left fielder with a plus glove and a #3 bat, right?
This ballclub desperately needs a .400-OBP engine to this horse carriage, and pronto. Ackley is an attempt to import one. Supposing we found another one before Ackley arrived in the bigs, I'm okay with duplicating.
Clement, Carp, and Ackley in 2011. I could live with it.
Cheers,
Dr D
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