Shopping Cano?
point counterpoint, Dept.

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Anonymous, in the Shout Box, called our attention to the day's chatter.  From Bleacher Report (quoting better sources than, um, Bleacher Report):

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Jim Bowden of ESPN, citing a source "directly involved in talks" between the Mariners and New York Yankees, reported there is "no truth" to any proposed deal involving Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury.

While the Yankees make sense from a roster perspective, the fact remains that if New York wanted Cano badly enough, then it never would've let him leave in the first place.

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According to John Harper of the New York Daily News, Cano is becoming dissatisfied with his current situation, and the Mariners' new hires, manager Scott Servais and general manager Jerry Dipoto, haven't lessened his desire to leave: "But even if Cano has had the best intentions as a Mariner, one long-time friend who spoke to him recently says the second baseman is not happy in Seattle, especially with a new regime in charge there now, and that he’d love to somehow find his way back to New York."

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Dr. D finds it easy to believe that Cano wants out.  That's not because of the grapevine, but because of his visible reactions to Safeco ripping him off during year two.  He can say all he wants about regimes, but SSI knows for a fact :- ) that hitting stars do not like having their statistics mown down.

James once wrote that some parks force you to recycle your lineup every couple of years ... the old Astrodome because hitters became demoralized, the 1970s-80s Fenway because it made egomaniacs out of mediocre players.  The M's may just have to build their Run Creation Model :- ) around the idea of two years of Seth Smith.

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Cano isn't exactly an albatross, but after two years in Safeco he isn't the "sexy" add that he was in the market two years ago.  Swapping him out would take some creativity we're quite sure.  But guess here is that 90% of SSI denizens would be very receptive to options.

Or, if not, I've got Cano on 3-4 maybe 5 WAR for next season.  I don't pay the M's wage bill and am pretty okay with having a #3-4 hitter at second base.

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Oh wait!  Fangraphs' best writer analyzed this for us just today.

  • The first third of the article gives us an excellent sense of proportion
  • The second third --- > widens our eyes with the "shock value" of a NY smear that Cano's worth 5/$80M now
  • The third third figures Cano's free agent value right now at $16-24M per season (years unknown, Dr. D sez; he's making $24M)
  • The fourth third deliciously compares Cano to Alex Gordon

My only quibble is that Cano being a middle infielder, compared to Gordon being an outfielder, IS important, even if you project the same WAR.  Position scarcity allows you greater flexibility and therefore greater future attack power.  My add, not quibble, is that the essence of sabermetrics is to look beyond one year's worth of data and not buy in too hard to the most recent visual.  

Oh, my other quibble is that Cano's upside is easier to see than Gordon's.  You just need the guy to hit like a 3 hitter, at 2B, and play okay defense, to be worth 5 WAR.  Harder for me to see an aging Gordon do 5 WAR.  Your mileage may vary.

But, great job by Sully as always.

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What Dr. D would do:  If he had a reasonable option for swapping Cano out, he probably would.  And take a lesson about long-term hitters in Safeco, other than Kyle Seager.  You're going to give a guy 7 years here, he needs to be a verrrrrry very humble man.

We've talked about my enduring interest in giving Chris Taylor a real chance, like the Royals just did give multi-year chances to a bunch of young players.  Taylor SS Marte 2B and David Price SP2, for the same salary total?  No problemo.  If you had to give up tasty minor leaguers to make it so, 's OK with us.

Enjoy,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

Well, pretty much "on" Chris Taylor.

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The Dodgers' treatment of Koufax could not possibly be more diametrically opposed to KC's handling of its young stars than it is. The Dodgers stuck with Koufax and stuck with him and stuck with him through years and years of failure and frustration. The Kansas City A's never stuck with ANYONE. A little stretch of poor performance, and you're gone. If the Dodgers had sent Koufax to the minors and traded him to Detroit for J. W. Porter, that would have been like what the A's did to their young players.

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Nothing like commenting on your own comments, is there?  Somebody say something about the soul of SSI?

2

Moving Cano (were the right offer out there) for something equally glittery.

But not for Ellsbury.  6x$21M for him is, "cough, cough" a "bit" "cough" high!

Egads.

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or an attitude statement from Cano that made me feel warm and fuzzy.  (Today's statement was cool too.)  or, a healthy Cano reverting to his first year in Safeco.  Which is 70-30 "on."

I don't doubt that *at this moment in time* you'd have to give a good reason to another team to make a Cano deal.  That doesn't mean giving them your firstborn.

Jacoby Ellsbury is coming off a down season; that's the kind of good reason we're talking about.

6
RockiesJeff's picture

We spend so much time on stats don't we but the object is for a team to still be playing in October. That takes 25 guys. It is a shame how the ego has such a hard time seeing past itself.

Give me the 1979 Sonics! A team! LOL!

Two years in Seattle making millions and not content. The proverbial grass that always looks greener....but......

Interesting off season ahead!

8
RockiesJeff's picture

A few years ago at a coach's conference in Denver, with the main speaker being Tony Gwynn, they were saying how coaching is not as much fun as it used to be. Shouldn't be true but in too many ways....there can be a lot of truth to that! And thankfully too busy with my son now so not going to be coaching baseball....lol....so started golf!

 

 

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