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A Lookout Landing article quoted Jerry DiPoto, to the effect that signing big-ticket FA's is a slower way to disembowel yourself with a katana:
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[LL] "... it's easy to say that now is the time for risk, with the contention window tied to Felix Hernandez, Robinson Canó and Nelson Cruz quickly closing. The Mariners are supposedly backed into a corner here.
That was actually the exact point a fan made to Jerry Dipoto at a season ticket holder Q&A session shortly after the GM was hired. Dipoto opened with, among other things, his preference for trades to free agency, and an open statement on not going after the upper-echelon free agents.
This fan responded with a rant that went on for at least two minutes and I'm not sure ever reacjed an actual question, with him explaining that, with the farm system barren of trade pieces, the Mariners were backed into said corner and would have to go to the free agent market to get their core some help.
Dipoto measured his response, and answered accordingly. Emphasis added here."
There are pieces in the minor league system, there are pieces on the major league club, there are ways that you can be creative that you’re not aware of. This is where we sit today. We go out and we play at the top of the free agent food chain—the corner that you spoke about, that is the quickest way to ensure that we will never get out of it.
The easiest way to ensure that we’ll get out of it is to develop players at the younger levels, to bring in two-for-ones in trades to build depth and we may not be a 116-win juggernaut but we’re going to compete and get into a postseason, and we’ll be competitive by shaping a major league team that fits this ballpark and allows us to win.
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I guess we can now reveal that Josh Hamilton, if not Albert Pujols, were indeed "suggested" by Arte Moreno.
At any rate, the spirit is clear on the above quote. Jerry DiPoto believes in "playing at the top of the FA food chain" about as much as Dave "Penny Pinch" Cameron does. But, funny you should mention:
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Here is a Fangraphs Op-Ed naming Ben Zobrist the #2 bargain in this free agent class :: cough, cough :: and as the #1 ... Jason Heyward at #1. That's if you cough up 9 years and $200M. As much as we moan and groan, Cameron's principles aren't absolutely absolute and CERTAINLY Jerry DiPoto's are not. You give any GM a 20% discount and he'll snap your hand off.
When Cameron says you're spending your money wisely, that's like Victoria Beckham telling you the tiramisu is soooo worth the calories. You might or might not be a Posh Spice fangirl, but you can safely dive into the dessert, that much you know.
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Meanwhile, Lookout Landing explicitly calls for a Jason Heyward deal. As a matter of fact, it was that headline that caused it to first OCCUR to Dr. D that Heyward is in a Mariners conversation. (Is he? Dr. D will believe it when he sees it. "It" being merely the first wisp of CHATTER on the connection.)
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DR's R/X
Heyward gives me that icky Feeling Of Being Stared At reaction. Why? He is a 5-6 WAR player who gets 2 of those WAR off defense and 1 of them off running the bases. Sound familiar? CHONE FIGGINS
Dr. D likes to play for 5-WAR players who get it done in the batter's box, or on Opening Day. That's because those players are Special Talents.
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But Dr. D's general principles have nothing to do with specific cases. And Heyward is simply the personification of everything that Jerry DiPoto wants put on his tombstone when he dies. So here's BaseballHQ after 2014. This is relevant because Heyward's bat was no different from 2015 than it had been in 2014:
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This was supposed to be a superstar, 2010's #2 prospect behind Strasburg. But after 5 years, rising contact isabout the only sign of growth.
Power outage is troubling (3 HR in final 348 PA), and success vs LH in '13 looks like a fluke -- just 4 XBH in 159 PA against them in '14. Upside might still be there, but we're losing patience.
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Heyward may not be much different than all-around OF Carlos Beltran, who played 4-5 years in the bigs at a 110 OPS+ and then jelled. Beltran also came up young, ran like the wind, fanned 130 times a year ... but became a 1.0 EYE hitter with excellent power. Heyward's got what, a 40% chance to do that? Thing is, you seem to be paying for a 100% chance at it...
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Those caveats having been said.
- Heyward's defense would shine in Safeco Field. It reallly would. Big Time.
- Heyward's floor is established. He's hit for a 115 OPS+ four years in a row, and his K's are sinking. Chone Figgins Begone.
- Heyward has easy upside like K-Pax has easy velocity. He's hitting 12-13 homers but you know and I know that could be 27 -- like in 2012.
So. 90% of the time, Dr. D avoids "soft skill" 5 WAR players, because they are overrated. This cheer, this would be the 10%. You would blow off Iwakuma, and you would have to find a way to get Cruz his 50 games with the glove, and you'd have to move around deck chairs otherwise also. But this would Lock and Load the vision and do it muy pronto.
What would Dr. D do, you ax? He'd do this one. Even at the cost of Iwakuma. In 2-4 years that contract could look like the best one in baseball.
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Judging by Cameron's piece, we should also do Zobrist and Chen, huh :- ) But Pearce and Hill too?
Enjoy,
Dr D
image: Thomson20192, flickr creative commons (as always)
