If "nothing" is the concept of "not doing anything in the OF this winter," then it is arguable if Bourn is "better than nothing."
It would depend, of course, on what your other options/actions were. If "doing nothing" means guti in center and Saunders in LF, or Saunders in CF and a fulltime Wells in LF...or (taking a flier) a Romero or Ackley (Franklin at 2B) in LF, then Bourn might or might not be a better option. Would depend, of course, on what those guys did. Any bets on whether Franklin or Romero can OPS+ at 95 next year?
And you must factor in the lost opportunity cost of a Bourn salary. If Victorino gets 3X$13M ( they overpaid), what is Bourn getting and then what else don't those $ buy you?
I like the "soft WAR" phrase of yours, Doc. Approach those kind of guys carefully, not as "Stars" in a "Stars and Scrubs" approach.
Myers and Butler would be 1A and 1B, in my book, of the guys we've recently discussed. Then Swisher. I would have to think hard on ranking Bourn/Jones/Reynolds after that. Reynolds, most probably. Martin comes in dead last.
Bourn, btw, has a significant split advantage in the right direction: .281/.350/.376 vs. .249/.306/.336. But you'll find this everywhere, mostly. However, what would that look like paired with Wells' .264/.349/.489 vL or Guti's .293/.351/.479? Pretty nice, I think. Add Saunders and that's a heck of a 4 to make 3 OF.
That, I would like a lot. Wedge would have to use the platoon advantage, however. Plenty of defense, anyway.
.
Q. Isn't Michael Bourn pretty much an Ichiro who plays CF?
A. He is not, no.
Ichiro racked up 6-7 runs per 27 outs for the decade of the 00's, this playing in Safeco Field. Michael Bourn is a 4.5 RC/27 player.
As leadoff hitters go, that's like three standard deviations. Tons of leadoff hitters generate 4.5, 5.0 runs per game in National League, friendly-park conditions. Only a few leadoff hitters in baseball history could have posted Ichiro's 6-7 runs created at Safeco.
.
Q. What is the value of his UZR and baserunning?
A. After SSI and friends, notably KGaffney and Dr Grumpy, tried to consolidate this issue, Carston Cistulli did it very elegantly. He pointed out that:
1. The average contribution of a TOP TEN UZR player has been +15 runs.
2. NOBODY CONSISTENTLY makes the top ten (except perhaps, um, Michael Bourn).
Bang: Cistulli closes out the discussion. If you think a defender is one of baseball's ten best, pay him for 15 runs. You don't want to pay a Franklin Gutierrez for 30 runs a year.
............
Applying the same logic to baserunning -- 1B to 3B, etc -- you can pay a player for 8, maybe 10 runs per season.
.
Q. Where does Bourn fit on this scale?
A. It is 100% fair to call Michael Bourn the finest player in the major leagues in this department. He is the one man you can pay for 20-25 runs per season, defense and baserunning.
.
Q. Leaving him where?
A. Without elite speed, he's an average-dubious center fielder (no power, huge K's). That's 1-2 WAR assuming you don't have an average center fielder. Then his impact speed is a good 2 WAR. You're fine to pay him for 3 WAR, and if you want to pay him for 4, that's your thing. (Don't forget K's and the NL-AL transition, though.)
.
Q. Does SSI value leadoff hitting?
A. It does indeed. Leadoff hitters give you "hard" runs, manufactured runs against elite pitching, including in the playoffs. Figure on a Garrett Jones to disappear against Jered Weaver in the playoffs. Figure on a Michael Bourn to score you two runs in that game.
Also, leadoff hitters can take a starting pitcher out of a rocking chair. You've got a average starter who's in a groove ... has retired 7 in a row, his tempo's perfect, and if all he had to do was face kids like Ackley and Smoak the rest of the way, you can mail it in. But! Get Michael Bourn up there, bunts his way on, the cat-and-mouse game starts at 1B, he swipes second... all of a sudden the game's no fun for Colby Lewis any more.
.
Q. What happens to Michael Saunders?
A. That's just the thing about a Michael Bourn signing. Saunders got you 3 WAR (pro-rated) in center last year. We all like him in CF going forward. What's the idea now? A great defensive left fielder in Saunders?
Let's say you had Saunders LF, Bourn CF, Swisher RF. You added a pretty decent leadoff man and a pretty decent #3 hitter, and you've got exciting defense in the outfield.
It doesn't blow your skirt up, but you can see the logic. It's not what SSI is hoping for. But it is a whale of a lot better than ... nothing.
BABVA,
Dr D
.
Comments
Which implies to me that Zduriencik has gone off his medication and is see colors and tasting music. Because He's going full hog for Michael Bourn and signing 34 year olds who just .165. YYYYYYeah...that'll work.
Damning praise, that. Yeah, I'd want that on my epitaph. Better than nothing.
Do better, Jack, than Bay and Bourn. Not exactly the killer B's.
Is if you count on the kids to be RBI men. Table-setters are great, but somebody's got to drive them in. Seager had one of the great first-halves I've seen by a rookie when it comes to producing RBIs in crucial situations, but I'm not sold on the idea that he's gonna be a massive run-producer.
Saunders? Ackley? Smoak? Montero? Heck, Romero or Franklin? If somebody's gonna knock guys in with XBHs (And yes, Seager's 50+ 2B potential means he could very well be an RBI man) then we can afford to pay for a leadoff man. But I have trouble paying for Bourn's D and baserunning when we're still paying for Guti's D and we haven't secured even one "Yeah, that guy can drive in a hundred" type player with the payroll.
Just feels too much like paying Ichiro bank while trying to drive him in with Cust, I guess. Hopefully the kids come through and ALL turn into RBI men. That's what I wanna see. :-)
~G
Well, he's cheap.
We are so scattergunned about who we sniff at that I fear Z is being pressured to do something/anything to make it seem like we're trying to field a winner....or that he's lost it.
Bay hangs around for ST, then goes away.
Z has spent on lottery tickets before. I guess a rebounded Bay and a motivated, performing Wells is problem Z would like to have. *shrug*
And one of them is gonna be really expensive (Hamilton/Swish expensive) then I would think Jason Bay's basically free addition lets you put that headline out there while still just actually signing the one useful FA (the dude not named Bay). It's one of the only reasons I can think of to utilize Bay on a one-year deal as a platoon player instead of Wells.
If Hamilton somehow comes here, Bay is forgiven. *laughs*
~G
Emphasis on "if."
BTW, that natural platoon exists without signing Bourn. Just platoon Wells and Guti. it is so natural and stands out so much, I can't imagine why it isn't almost a given that the M's will use it. I don't get it. Earl is ticked off, somewhere.
Honest to goodness guys, just commiting to that platoon is like signing a masher. Napoli is a .346/.485 OBP/SLG guy. That's almost exactly what a Wells/Guti platoon would produce, historically. In essence, we have Napoli and it doesn't cost us anything more.
Roll Romero into the OF, or Franklin......or get Swisher at the slightly reduced rate he's about to get, and go mash.
Except... Wells and Guti are both right handed? Did you mean Saunders and Guti, or Saunders and Wells? But Saunders doesn't have big platoon splits...
This is about 30 degrees off subject, but here's an amusing clip from BJOL:
.................
Re: players with a higher OBP than SLG. I always call those guys 'Cangelosi' players. They may get lucky and get a season to play. They draw a lot of walks, usually steal bases. Seem to always be good defensively. But as soon as the team can find someone who hits 10 homers and draws about 10 walks, it's back to the bench or the minors. Ron Roenicke was another one like that. Kind of a guy who might have led the league in runs if you just led him off every day.
Asked by: shthar
Answered: 12/6/2012
There are 62 players in history who had 5,000 career plate appearances and a higher on base percentage than slugging percentage. Ten of them have played in the last 30 years. Oddly enough, you can sort of make a team out of those ten: C--Butch Wynegar, 1B--Mike Hargrove, 2B--Willie Randolph or Luis Castillo, 3B--Mark McLemore, SS--Walt Weiss, Ozzie Smith or Mark Belanger, LF--Otis Nixon, CF--Brett Butler, RF .. .um. .. .I guess we'll have to play one of the extra infielders in right field.
The LOWEST ratio of On Base to Slugging Percentage ever was .612, by Juan Gone, followed by Dave Kingman, Tony Armas and Alfonso Soriano.
...............
Anybody want to try to win a pennant with the OBP > SLG superstar team of the past 30 years?
That team would be hilariously fun to watch for me...not a ton of long balls, but lots of 2-man-3-man on innings, baserunning craziness and SPECTACULAR team defense. Criminy...Ozzie Smith at short, Mark Belanger at third, Mark McLemore in RF, Butler in CF, Willie Randolph at 2B...that team would have a DER of like .740 LOL