1
Thanks Spec... IF LoMo has an option left just like Smoak does, then the competition in spring training could be intense... and these moves have a purpose.
If no option, then Smoak is trade fodder or in Tacoma.
Logan Morrison as Bounce-Back Candidate
The indicators are strangely Jaso-like (and how often does one get to use the term "Jaso-like"?)
Two years ago the Mariners acquired a hitter from a Florida-based team who had just completed an uninspiring year: .224/.298/.354 slash line | 84 OPS+ | .292 wOBA. In other words, a pretty ugly season for a guy not known for defense.
And yet ...
- He had a very strong minor-league track record, including, particularly, the kind of plate skills that one usually sees only with guys with a strong chance of MLB success.
- He had established a baseline of major-league success in a significant amount of playing time.
- His down year combined injuries and a sharp dip in BABIP below what had been his prior experience.
- The resulting frustration appeared to make him more likely to "fish" at bad pitches outside the zone.
- His track record was a strong indicator that he would "figure it out."
And so, I was one of those who hailed the acquisition of John Jaso, and I immediately pegged him as a guy with a good chance of bouncing back strong.
As we know, he did just that: turning in 142 and 117 OPS+ and .372 and .345 wOBA seasons since then.
[Now, whether Jaso is actually that good is another question. He's probably not. But he wasn't nearly as bad as his 2011 season made him look, which is the point.]
***
Now the parallels are eerie. Here comes another left-handed hitter from a Florida team, coming off a lackluster season (or two, in the case of Logan Morrison). And check it out now:
- Jaso had a .379 OBP in the minors with a super-low 12.1% strikeout rate (K/PA).
- LoMo had a .377 OBP in the minors with a 15.0% K rate.
- Jaso immediately established himself in the majors as a guy who would take a walk (14.6% BB rate as a rookie)
- LoMo had a 14.3% BB rate as a rookie
- Even when struggling and "fishing" a bit more, both Jaso and LoMo maintained low K% and low swinging-strike percentages.
- In Jaso's down year, his BABIP was .244 or 42 points below his career average.
- In LoMo's worst year, his BABIP was .248 or 33 points below his career average.
My view is that, for guys with strong plate skills, the "fishing" doesn't show up in higher K% or swinging-strike percentage, but in a lower BABIP. In other words, when they are struggling with injuries or bad luck or both, they still make contact, but it's weaker contact, and it's contact on "pitcher's pitches" that they might otherwise take.
So the low BABIP that might have started out as just bad luck ends up "snowballing." That's just my theory, but it seemed to be a pretty good take on Jaso's 2011 season.
***
Except that, based on the Jaso "BABIP snowball" template, LoMo's 2012 was the "mulligan" season, and he should have recovered in 2013.
So let's see what happened:
- Yes, his BABIP returned to his career average, and his OBP recovered (from .308 to .333). With his BB%, he ought to be able to reach that vacinity in any year with a decent BABIP.
- But, it was his power that drooped. His ISO dropped to .133 from a peak of .221 in 2011 and a career total of .192 coming into the season.
- And he had warning-track power: just a 5.8% HR/FB. A strong, skilled hitter ought to approach double-digits in that category, and the MLB average is 7.6%.
[There's some controversy about how much of HR/FB is random variation. I think it's clear that some guys are sluggers and some pitchers give up gopherballs. But there will also be a lot of random fluctuation. You have to compare to a guy's track record.]
Here then is the track record: in 2026 PAs in the minors, Morrison hit HR at a 2.8% rate (HR/PA); in 1479 PAs in the majors, Morrison has hit HR at a 2.8% rate.
So maybe a 2.8% rate is a better bet than his 1.8% rate in 2013? It's fair to assume that injuries were sapping his natural power. (Remember, more HR boosts one's BA, OBP and SLG. Convert five outs to HR, and Morrison's season looks quite different. As in: .260/.350/.440 instead of .242/.333/.375.)
***
What might one expect from LoMo then? If healthy and reverting to reasonable expectations? And how would he compare to Justin Smoak?
Both LoMo and Smoak have a solid record of walking, and both should be good for around 80 points of patience (OBP - BA).
LoMo, however, has established a better record at avoiding strikeouts and hitting with authority. Smoak has a slightly better HR rate in the majors, but that doesn't appear to be a result of better actual power, since Morrison has a much higher rate of XBH/PA.
Therefore, if Morrison and Smoak both have "normal" seasons, I would expect Morrison to have a slightly higher ISO, by 10 or 15 points. That is, I would expect Smoak to gravitate in the 155-160 range and LoMo in the 170-175 range. Not a ton of difference, but meaningful.
Also, despite Smoak's switch-hitter-ness, LoMo has a slightly better career platoon split, but not enough to conclude much from.
***
Bottom line: it's fair to expect a healthy Morrison to produce an OPS of .750 or higher, but, since he's not a pure slugger (there's no good reason to expect a 4.0% HR rate or higher on a consistent basis), that won't make him much more than an average 1b/DH.
But he looks like a very good bet to bounce back to those levels, and that's a good option to have under club control. If he can play in the outfield with any consistency, he looks even better.
That being said, think more along the lines of Smoak and Jaso. He's not a savior slugger.
Comments
2
Assuming that Smoak, LoMo and Hart are all on the roster, Hart plays RF, LOMO DHes and Smoak plays first. Where is this problem requiring Smoak's trip to AAA?
3
With Smoak, then the way that I see it... Jack will probably not sign another big bat... which would mean no Nelson Cruz, sooo possible positive, but now we are in similar position as last year. By that I mean a very weak OF that is a major injury risk. The M's would be forced to run a rotation in CF, RF, LF, 1B and DH - with Smoak, LoMo, Hart, Ackley, Almonte, Saunders, and Bloomquist. That rotation does not have enough defense or offense in my opinion. To just further point it out, it scares me that Bloomquist will be playing significant time in a corner outfield position.
Without Smoak, HOPEFULLY Jack would get an athletic OF who has above average offensive skills.... Choo, Cain, Gardner, Gomez... or similar would be exciting.
4
... is in his first year of arbitration and will be under team control for the next three years.
5
Hart was marginal to below average defensively when he last played in the OF...two years and two knee surgeries ago. Relying on him to man an OF position on a regular basis seems less than wise, especially since the team needs his bat in the lineup for 150 games. So yeah, the M's have a surplus of 1B/DH guys on the roster. Again.
6
loMo and Hart are coming off of injuries. Smoak can only seem to put it together for 2 months a year. It appears that you don't want LoMo or Hart in the outfield except for spot starts. I would prefer to keep all 3 of them and let Smoak and LoMo duke it out in spring training and beyond if they have options left. Smoak and LoMo haven't set the world on fire or anything. They don't deserve a guaranteed spot, and are both cheap, or relatively cheap. I think something that has been lacking the past (many) years for the M's is the younger players having someone breathing down their necks. If Smoak is the starter after spring training, what would be the negative with someone chomping at the bit for his at-bats? I see it working for the A's every year. They know that major league at-bats are precious! I don't think I should care too much about how Justin Smoak feels about competition for his job. He hasn't been consistent enough to deserve anything really. Don't trade either of them. Mariners spring training 2014 should be DH/1B thunderdome. 3 enter...only 2 leave.
7
Jaso, Almonte, Ty Kelly, now Morrison - for a guy who supposedly only looks at batting averages, home runs and RBIs, it's rather interesting what he trades his relievers and minor leaguers for.
8
Remember when everyone made fun of Billy Beane for acquiring Hatteberg to play first base instead of the pretty fielder thye already had at the position (Pena)? Remember Jeremy Giambi? Jack Cust? Erubiel Durazo? Remember those guys? Why does Beane get called a genius for pulling that and Z gets called incoherent?
9
People love to be in the 'in crowd,' and modern SABR-istas love to show how smart they are by discrediting previous metrics in favor of new ones. It should be about the pursuit of knowledge, not about proving how smart/elite/IN you are.
I mean we're all guilty of doing this at some time or another, but not many of us are allowed, by the world, to consistently hold those around us in active contempt while working alongside them in any capacity. The 'keyboard warrior' phenomenon has really become a thing, especially in the hyper-analytical/hypo-social crowd, and the online baseball blogging community has a lot of those (us) in their ranks. It's just a pity that they're not only allowed, but actively encouraged, to look down their noses at those who would dare use three year old metrics to analyze a given problem.
Just because there might be a more complete, or more accurate, or more valuable metric available doesn't mean all the old ones should get thrown out. Sometimes I think baseball 'analysts' want nothing more than to establish that, essentially, all players are identical and when 'proper regression analysis' (a term which only a small fraction of the people slinging it around actually understand) is applied, that fact becomes obvious even to the mewling masses.!
/rant Sorry about that, people. I'm with you, Matt; it's annoying -- and worse, it's dishonest -- to see some of these guys apply double-standards like that.
Still with Doc that Jeff Sullivan is one of the finest bloggers on the planet. Dude is a Founding Father, O.G., card-carrying member, etc.. Love to read most, if not all, of what he writes. One of the few local-ish bloggers who actually makes active attempts at understanding an issue globally in favor of loudly pounding his gavel and bestowing tuppence on his faithful followers for their obedience (like far too many who get positions of power/editorial posts).
10
Beane doing it over a decade ago might have something to do with how it's viewed.
11
Also, wasn't Jaso hampered by power-draining injuries in 2011 (oblique, ankle)? As LoMo has been by his knees. Which goes to your entire issue of PX drop, affecting BABIP etc.
Compelling argument. Am going to be more interested in Morrison's potential after having read your breakdown.