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Q.  So Upton looks like a hitter, both in the box and in the strikeout trends.  Anything else on that subject?

A.  If you look at his plate coverage, as in this hot zone chart, it reflects the same thing you see on TV -- that Upton is balanced on his feet and that he can easily reach all parts of the strike zone.

If you look at his scatter chart, you see a Montero-, Edgar-like willingness to take the ball up the middle.  In fact, the complaint last year is that he wouldn't pull the ball in the air.

We're not saying that Upton is a certified .300 hitter.  We're just saying that he's a different guy from his brother B.J., who was condemned by James as (we paraphrase...) a flashy player who refuses to think when in the batter's box.  Justin and B.J. are almost opposite in their personalities.  I dunno.  You ever meet two brothers who had different personalities?  :- )

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Q.  What happened to his power in 2012?

A.  I dunno, but I think it's fair to take Justin's future power as a given.

It would be one thing if he were on roids, or if he'd been cheating on fastballs and now his bat had slowed, or if he had Hanley Ramirez Disease, or something like that.  But Justin Upton has easy power, and mammoth power.

Take this 2011 home run tracker.  He hit 31 home runs, and the average speed off the bat was 107.3 MPH -- which has nothing to do with the air in Arizona.  And same thing last year -- 107.2 MPH off the bat, although he didn't pull as many balls in the air as usual.  By comparison, Adam Dunn hit them at 105.9 MPH last year, 103.5 the year before, 105.1 the year before that.  

Justin Upton takes a nice easy swing at the ball and you're talking 450 feet.  This is not Adrian Beltre, who has to swing out of his shoes to clear the Safeco fence.

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Q.  Speaking of Safeco ....

A.  A big part of Dr. D's earlier hesitation was Upton coming to a park that was death to righties.  The fact that Safeco is changing, that radically changes the Upton-as-Mariner scenario.  We gingerly guess that the park is NO factor against Upton, going forward.

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Q.  His road splits are terrible.

A.  Just noise, I'd be almost sure.

I think it was Malcontent who pointed out that Matt Holliday had splits like that early in his career; you could find a lot of guys.  It's just one of those things.  ... or, let's say you're worried, fine.  WHY EXACTLY would Upton perform badly on the road?  I can't think of anything, can you.  

When you hit home/road splits that look funky, they should be a FLAG, a reason to look deeper.  Okay, we look deeper.  Why would Upton be a home player?  Because his power doesn't carry outside Arizona?  :: blinks :: Dr. D is wide open here.  Hit me with your best shot.

If you had to press me to guess ... either it's luck, or maybe the young Upton just wasn't psychologically as comfortable on road trips, away from his family, or whatever.

He was 24 last  year, turned 25 late in the season.  He's almost ready for the John Benson "Age 26 With Experience" career spike.  :- )

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