Q. By the way, what does $8M buy?
A. Not everybody is hardcore saber, so...
If you took 10 free agents from any offseason, and they averaged $10M each, they'd all get $100M.... and for that $100M, those ten guys would improve their new teams by about 200-250 runs, total. That's what analysts do, is add up all the salary spent, and then all the runs created, and divide it up.
This method was invented not by one of the 21st-century sites, but by John Benson in the 1980's. Benson is a roto champ and a Certified Public Accountant, and he showed us how to valuate player contributions against inflation.
So for every $4.5 to $5.0 million that you spend in the free agent market, you gain 10 runs on average. Improving your team by +10 runs is enough to move an 81-81 team to 82-80. (SABRMatt has pointed out that this total will change somewhat if a team is winning 95 or losing 95.)
This also means that +1 run -- saved with the glove, or knocked in with the bat -- costs you about $450,000 to $500,000 on the free agent market.
So, Johjima's saved $8,000,000 gets the M's 16-18 runs, or almost two wins, on the free agent market.
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Q. So you expect 16-18 runs with this $8M?
A. With this $8M I hope for + 25 runs. :- )
Notice that it's quite possible to add more than +18 runs to your team with an $8M windfall, because you don't necessarily have to spend it on the FA market. ... arbitration players cost you only about 50% as much per run, so if that $8M saves you two $4M arb players, you could even save 30-40 runs with it.
Or supposing that you trade with another team that is strapped for cash and needs to unload a player, as the Nats do with Adam Dunn (whose glove is now rendering him unfit for NL consumption. Dunn makes $10M, but he adds +35 (!) runs over a replacement-level hitter.
Granted, the latest argument is that you can find $427,000 hitters who give you +10 runs at DH. That's true in some cases, but not in others. It depends on the day of the week and the circumstances you're in. (Were the Mariners able to grab a replacement-level shortstop for $427,000 the same day they wanted to?)
The latest word on Marco Scutaro, the prize of the SS free agent derby, is that it will take 8/$27M to get him. That's Johjima's money almost to a tee.
As opposed to Johjima and Josh Wilson, the M's now play with Marco Scutaro and Johnson/Moore -- without needing to do a thing, from a GM-skill standpoint.
Scutaro will want $8-10M, they say. But he was worth +44 runs last year (!) and +27 the year before that.
Now, I'm not sure I want to get into a bidding war on Scutaro, who's old and (probably) about to be overpaid. But you're playing with house money here. The point is, you don't need to cap your ambitions at 16-runs-for-$8M. You should challenge yourself to get 25, 30 runs rather than 16-18, because you are a talent expert.
..............
Johjima's $8M impact? Two wins at least, freebie. In addition to whatever else the M's do this year.
+16 to +25 runs in addition to whatever else we were gonna do this winter? Isn't that about the difference between "I hope we contend next year" and "I expect us to contend next year"?
Sweet like ice cream,
Dr D